Written by: Cleve Mesidor (Executive Director, National Policy Network of Women of Color in Blockchain)
Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
In a sports season full of Cinderella comeback stories, the crypto industry is also anticipating its own spotlight moment—the CLARITY Act advancing in the U.S. Senate may be the key "comeback." However, with two quarters left before the final whistle, securing the 60 votes needed for passage might require Republicans to compromise with the White House on ethical issues and persuade a few remaining undecided Republican senators.
It's only halftime; there are still six months left in the year, and anything is possible. Legislative victories and scoring points on the field are essentially no different, requiring the precise alignment of multiple factors. Sometimes, burning a little sage for good luck doesn't hurt—just like the New York Knicks demonstrated this year.
The second half of this policy year will be a crucial period of intensive negotiations between both parties in the House and Senate. Zooming out, market structure legislation is just one piece of a larger script aimed at building a comprehensive policy and regulatory framework for Web3 and DeFi.
The congressional calendar is already packed, with just over 40 legislative working days left—even accounting for the lame-duck session and midterm elections, the time for strategizing and adjusting the score is extremely tight.
A Crowded Policy Arena
Beyond the prospects of the CLARITY Act, can the multiple crypto tax proposals split from the new PARITY Act hitch a ride on larger legislative "must-pass" vehicles to become law this year?
Can the core language of the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act execute a "Hail Mary" pass to formally enshrine developer protections into law?
Furthermore, the full-court press surrounding the finalization of GENUIS rulemaking continues, with key provisions still pending.
For crypto enthusiasts, this is like a sports fan following an entire season: rich storylines, constant suspense, equally exciting and nerve-wracking.
CFTC Lacks a Starting Lineup
The fact that a financial regulatory agency is missing four commissioners is deeply concerning for the industry. For crypto, this directly dampens expectations for action from Washington—whether new commissioners can be nominated and confirmed this year remains highly uncertain.
More thorny is the question of who will win the jurisdictional battle over prediction markets? Will it be the states, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), or ultimately decided by the Supreme Court?
Of course, this is not a suggestion for you to place a bet.
Crypto Champions Set to Retire
Regardless of the final policy outcome, the remaining days of this year are likely to be bittersweet. Two heavyweight "crypto champions" are set to hang up their federal government jerseys, and their departures will have significant short- and long-term impacts: SEC Commissioner Hester M. Peirce and U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis.
Peirce, as a two-term commissioner leading the SEC's crypto-focused efforts, has been a core architect of inter-agency coordination. Lummis, as Chair of the Senate Banking Committee's Subcommittee on Digital Assets, has been a key negotiator for bipartisan compromise and a steadfast advocate for the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA).
Second-Half Outlook: Views from Industry Leaders
I spoke with several veteran industry leaders to gauge their assessment of the current crypto policy deliberations. Here are their perspectives on CLARITY, taxation, and prediction markets:
Sara K. Weed (Partner, Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP):
"It's undeniable that we are moving steadily in the right direction. However, constrained by the shortage of legislative days and election pressures, the likelihood of CLARITY passing in this Congress is low. Consequently, agencies like the SEC and CFTC will be forced to play a more active role in providing the industry with much-needed certainty. The question, of course, is how far they can go within their existing authority."
Sulolit 'Raj' Mukherjee (CEO, Bodin Advisory):
"If history is any guide, meaningful crypto tax legislation is most likely to pass not as standalone bills, but embedded within broader tax, budget, or end-of-year legislative packages. The current slate of proposals are relatively targeted, enjoy bipartisan consensus, and aim to address specific issues like de minimis exemptions, staking tax treatment, wash sale rules, and information reporting requirements. These provisions are easier to advance when attached to must-pass vehicles. Whether they ultimately land will depend on bandwidth, scoring, and whether lawmakers view these crypto tax rules as technical fixes to improve compliance rather than part of a larger digital asset policy debate. The opportunity for at least one or two measures to become law this year is real, but likely through the vehicle route, not as standalone crypto tax bills."
Rashan Colbert (U.S. Policy Director, Crypto Council for Innovation):
<"I won't predict how the courts will resolve jurisdictional disputes, but the direction is becoming clearer: as the prediction market category matures, the CFTC is working to build a more durable regulatory framework for it. The recently issued NPRM is another step toward providing more transparency and legal certainty for market participants—a sector seeing growing user bases and trading volumes.
The core question is: should prediction markets primarily be treated as financial market infrastructure, or broadly categorized as gambling? I believe these markets have the potential to be sophisticated tools for expressing views, hedging risks, and simplifying access to derivatives on a wide array of events and assets. Applying an overly broad gambling framework risks stifling that potential before markets have a chance to develop into positive-sum financial infrastructure."
The second half of crypto policymaking has begun. The time window is narrow, but the window of opportunity remains open. The industry needs sustained bipartisan communication and pragmatic advocacy to harvest substantive results by 2026.
