Citi's Interpretation: Upgrading China, Downgrading South Korea, Is the Emerging Markets Rally Beginning to Broaden?
In its latest emerging markets strategy report, Citi has upgraded China to overweight from neutral, while downgrading South Korea to neutral from overweight. It maintains an overweight rating for China-Taiwan markets. The report sets MSCI EM index targets of 1870 by end-2026 and 2050 by mid-2027, implying further upside of approximately 12% and over 20% respectively from current levels.
Citi's move reflects a search for "broadening" opportunities beyond the concentrated rally in AI hardware and tech, which has driven EM gains year-to-date, led by South Korea and China-Taiwan markets. The upgrade for China is based on factors including light investor positioning, potential benefits from lower oil prices, and relative attractiveness in a recovering global growth cycle. While maintaining a strong long-term view on South Korea, Citi notes its recent outperformance and elevated volatility prompted a tactical downgrade.
The report highlights that EM earnings revisions remain narrow, with the IT sector contributing about 85% of 2026 EPS estimate upgrades. For a sustained rally, Citi argues that market gains need to broaden to other sectors and regions. China, South Africa, and Mexico rank highly as potential "broadening candidates" based on factors like sensitivity to a weaker dollar, lower bond yields, and oil prices.
Key uncertainties include the sustainability of AI capital expenditure returns, geopolitical risks, and Federal Reserve policy. Citi's stance is cautiously optimistic, suggesting the rally has room to broaden rather than signaling a confirmed broad-based EM bull market. The path to higher index targets depends on whether non-tech earnings revisions improve and if capital rotates from concentrated winners into a wider set of markets.
marsbit07/20 10:12
