On-Chain Lending Bull Market Logic: The Inflection Point Has Arrived, How to Position?
On-chain Lending Bull Market Logic: Inflection Point Arrived, How to Position?
The on-chain lending market is at a cyclical inflection point (Stage 4), characterized by low capital and low interest rates. Key drivers for the next growth phase include necessary product upgrades to attract institutional capital, unlocking new demand, and capital returning as rates stabilize above risk-free rates.
The sector's valuation multiples are compressing towards Fintech levels (currently 21x-42x P/S vs. 8.4x for public Fintech lenders), presenting a potential entry opportunity for 2026.
Critical developments include:
- **Superior Collateral**: Modular protocols (e.g., Kamino, Aave, Morpho) enabling higher-risk lending and tokenization of traditional assets (e.g., securities lending, HELOCs).
- **Protocol Improvements**: New loan types (term loans, whitelisted addresses, tri-party agreements) improving capital efficiency and compressing spreads.
- **Yield Generation**: Tokenized yield products (e.g., 8-15% returns from credit funds) becoming crucial for yield funds as basis trade returns compress.
The thesis suggests sustainable lending demand growth can occur even if crypto prices decline, with fundamental catalysts providing a stronger foundation for the next cycle.
比推01/26 18:16