Elections, Oil Prices, and the Money Printer: Why Bitcoin Only Cares About Trump
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, analyzes the U.S. election, oil prices, and monetary expansion through a trader’s lens, arguing that Bitcoin’s performance hinges on Trump’s policies. He asserts that politicians’s primary goal is reelection, driven by economic perceptions of voters. For electoral success, Trump must boost nominal GDP through credit expansion while suppressing oil-driven inflation, particularly gasoline prices, which significantly influence voter behavior.
Hayes suggests that controlling Venezuelan oil is a strategic move to keep energy costs low. If oil prices remain stable or fall amid economic growth, Trump’s camp benefits; rising oil costs could favor opponents. The key for investors is to monitor oil prices and Treasury yields—if they spike, credit expansion may slow, hurting risk assets. Otherwise, continued money printing will likely propel Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies upward.
Hayes concludes that persistent dollar liquidity expansion, driven by deficit spending and Fed policies, will cause Bitcoin to "moon." His fund, Maelstrom, is positioned long on privacy-focused crypto assets like ZEC, expecting them to outperform major cryptocurrencies amid ongoing monetary inflation.
marsbit01/06 07:12
