Capital Outflow and User Loss Resonate, BTC's Three-Month Critical Window Opens
Bitcoin's network activity has shown a six-month decline in active addresses, dropping approximately 31% to around 535,942, despite stable transaction volumes. This divergence suggests reduced participation breadth, with fewer entities handling similar on-chain activity, potentially due to institutional consolidation and ETF-driven trading. Low transaction fees, averaging $0.24, reflect weak block space demand, while U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant outflows, totaling $4.5 billion year-to-date. Three scenarios are projected: continued stagnation in a risk-averse macro environment, recovery driven by improved risk appetite and ETF inflows, or structural shift where Bitcoin evolves into a macro asset with reduced on-chain utility, overshadowed by stablecoins for daily transactions. The next 3-6 months will be critical in determining Bitcoin’s trajectory amid these pressures.
比推02/24 06:36