2026-04-17 Sexta

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Must-Watch Next Week｜Iran Conflict Continues to Impact Global Situation; February CPI Data Approaches (Mar 9-15)

Key Events to Watch Next Week (March 9-15): Iran conflict enters its second week, with global attention on the selection of a new Supreme Leader and Israel’s military stance. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to threaten global oil supply and economic stability. Economic data releases include U.S. February CPI on March 11 and January PCE on March 13, which will be closely monitored for inflation trends. Other notable events: SharpLink holds its 2025 earnings call on March 9; Neutron pauses order book functions due to a security vulnerability, with services expected to resume the same day. The UK’s Financial Services Regulation Committee is accepting submissions on stablecoin regulation until March 11.

marsbit03/08 12:05

Must-Watch Next Week｜Iran Conflict Continues to Impact Global Situation; February CPI Data Approaches (Mar 9-15)

marsbit03/08 12:05

Weekly Preview | California Opens Digital Asset License Application Channel; Aptos (APT) to Unlock Tokens Worth Approximately $10.5 Million

This week in crypto and finance features significant regulatory developments, economic data releases, and key token unlocks. California's Digital Financial Assets Law (DFAL) licensing application portal opens on March 9, requiring crypto service providers to comply by July 1, 2026. The UK's Treasury Committee closes its consultation on stablecoin regulation on March 11. Major economic data includes the US releasing February's CPI and core CPI figures on March 11. In project updates, Polkadot will implement a major economic overhaul on March 12, capping DOT's total supply at 2.1 billion and introducing new staking mechanics. Several tokens have unlocks this week: Movement (MOVE) unlocks $3.4M on March 9, io.net (IO) unlocks $1.3M on March 11, Aptos (APT) unlocks $10.5M on March 13, and Starknet (STRK) and Sei (SEI) unlock $4.8M and $3.6M respectively on March 15. Other events include a财报电话会 for Sharplink, Ethereum Day in Hong Kong focusing on AI and DeFi, and Neutron deploying a bug fix on March 9.

marsbit03/08 12:01

Weekly Preview | California Opens Digital Asset License Application Channel; Aptos (APT) to Unlock Tokens Worth Approximately $10.5 Million

marsbit03/08 12:01

Analyst warns Bitcoin may enter ‘new redistribution phase’ – $63,700 next?

The crypto market is experiencing cooling volatility after a period of heightened tension. Bitcoin, which peaked at $73,000 amid the US-Iran conflict, is now in a corrective phase, trading around $67,174. Analysts highlight $63,700 as a critical on-chain support level; a break below could lead to further declines toward $57,000 or even $52,400. A drop to $48,700 would signal a stronger correction and challenge the medium-term bullish outlook. Analyst Joao Wedson warns that losing key structural levels may mark the start of a "new redistribution phase." Bitcoin's current trading range ($67k–$74k) places it in a "high heat" zone, indicating a stretched market. However, long-term holders remain calm, with the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) metric at 0.34—well below the 2.0 level typical of market tops—suggesting accumulation rather than distribution. Short-term signals remain weak, with the MVRV Ratio near -10%, indicating unrealized losses for recent buyers. Market sentiment reflects "Extreme Fear," with a reading of 12 on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Upcoming geopolitical developments, particularly potential Middle East ceasefire talks, could influence Bitcoin's direction. A ceasefire may boost risk appetite, while prolonged tensions could favor traditional safe-haven assets, potentially limiting Bitcoin's upside above $70,000.

ambcrypto03/08 11:01

Analyst warns Bitcoin may enter ‘new redistribution phase’ – $63,700 next?

ambcrypto03/08 11:01

Florida Passes First State-Level Stablecoin Bill — Crypto CLARITY Act Next?

In a significant move for the crypto industry, the Florida State Senate has passed Senate Bill 314 (SB314), establishing the first state-level regulatory framework for stablecoins in the U.S. The bill, which has also passed the House and is expected to be signed by Governor Ron DeSantis, aims to regulate payment stablecoin issuers by aligning with federal guidelines, including consumer protections and financial stability rules. It revises existing money laundering controls to include stablecoins, requires issuers to be licensed, and clarifies that certain stablecoins are not securities. This development occurs as broader federal crypto legislation continues to face challenges.

bitcoinist03/08 10:49

Florida Passes First State-Level Stablecoin Bill — Crypto CLARITY Act Next?

bitcoinist03/08 10:49

"Threat" Harvests Before "Action": How Geopolitical Risk Prices the Crypto Market—Transmission Mechanisms and Outlook

Abstract: Geopolitical risk (GPR), particularly the "threat" phase, acts as a key driver of risk premium repricing in financial markets, with significant implications for crypto assets, which now behave as high-beta risk assets deeply embedded within the global macro cycle. The GPR index, which quantifies risk through media analysis, shows that negative effects are primarily driven by threats rather than actual acts of conflict. GPR impacts crypto through several transmission channels: risk aversion (rising VIX), inflation and rate cut fears (via oil price shocks), and market structure amplifiers (24/7 trading, high leverage, and endogenous liquidity loops). These mechanisms explain crypto’s high-beta nature—often correlating positively with Nasdaq—and its tendency toward violent deleveraging and liquidity contraction during stress. Three scenarios are outlined: base case (震荡修复) – slow recovery if risks stabilize; pessimistic (二次探底) – renewed selloff if conflict escalates and inflation spikes; optimistic (高波动超额反弹) – sharp rebound if risks fade and macro conditions improve. Key insights: 1) Markets price GPR threats early via risk-off shifts; 2) Crypto’s high volatility is structurally inherent; 3) Bitcoin behaves more like a high-beta tech asset than digital gold under most macro conditions, with its safe-haven narrative only materializing during severe sovereign or cross-border stress. Investors must integrate GPR into macro frameworks to dynamically assess risk premiums and liquidity conditions.

marsbit03/08 10:40

"Threat" Harvests Before "Action": How Geopolitical Risk Prices the Crypto Market—Transmission Mechanisms and Outlook

marsbit03/08 10:40

Solana vs Ethereum – $4.4T traded, RWA holders flipped – But who wins?

Solana's trading activity has surged over three years, accumulating $4.4 trillion in total volume. Weekly trading, once below $10 billion, grew significantly in 2024, often reaching $20–40 billion and briefly spiking to $120–130 billion during memecoin-driven speculation. It has since stabilized around $12–15 billion, reflecting sustained retail demand due to its low-fee structure. In Real World Assets (RWA), Solana surpassed Ethereum in holder count (154,942 vs. 153,592), indicating broader retail accessibility. However, Ethereum leads in RWA value ($15.45B vs. $1.79B), maintaining its role as the institutional hub. Despite high trading volume, Solana's liquidity is thinner (0.4 liquidity-to-volume ratio vs. Ethereum’s 4.57), making it efficient for small trades but challenging for large orders. It benefits from $15.4B in stablecoin supply and high throughput with minimal fees. Ethereum retains a structural advantage with deeper liquidity and institutional settlement capabilities.

ambcrypto03/08 10:02

Solana vs Ethereum – $4.4T traded, RWA holders flipped – But who wins?

ambcrypto03/08 10:02

AI sector grows to $14.4B yet Bittensor fades – Will TAO revisit $165?

The crypto AI sector's market cap grew from $12.76 billion to $14.42 billion over the past month. However, Bittensor (TAO) has struggled despite a brief rally in mid-February. After an unsuccessful attempt to reach $200 on March 7th, TAO faces bearish pressure. Data shows declining spot demand, negative funding rates, and increased selling pressure, with Open Interest rising 6% in 24 hours. TAO has been trading in a $165–$200 range since February, and current momentum suggests a move toward the $165 support level is likely. Traders may consider range-bound strategies, buying near $160 and selling near $200, until a breakout occurs.

ambcrypto03/08 08:01

AI sector grows to $14.4B yet Bittensor fades – Will TAO revisit $165?

ambcrypto03/08 08:01

The Most Insane Ethereum L2: An L2 Spontaneously Built by Self-Organizing AI Agents

The article explores the concept of AI agents autonomously forming and operating an Ethereum L2 chain. While currently AI agents (enabled by standards like ERC-8004) can migrate to existing L2s for better performance (lower gas, higher throughput), fully autonomous L2 creation is not yet feasible by 2026. However, as infrastructure matures (e.g., zk-rollups, modular DA like Celestia), agents could collaboratively deploy and manage L2 components. They might use on-chain economic incentives (via x402 payments) to "hire" human or AI-run services (sequencers, RPC providers, bridges) and form decentralized networks. Key challenges include infrastructure setup, consensus security, and regulatory hurdles, but multi-agent systems could eventually enable self-organizing, efficient L2s tailored for AI economies.

marsbit03/08 07:19

The Most Insane Ethereum L2: An L2 Spontaneously Built by Self-Organizing AI Agents

marsbit03/08 07:19

A Depegging and a Tweet: When the U.S. President Begins to "Legislate Escort" for His Family Business

A brief depegging incident involving the USD1 stablecoin, issued by Trump-affiliated World Liberty Financial (WLFI), and a subsequent push for crypto legislation by former President Trump have raised questions about the intersection of his political power and family business interests. On February 23, 2026, USD1 briefly depegged to $0.994 amid what WLFI called a "coordinated attack" involving social media hacks and market manipulation. Shortly after, WLFI transferred over $17 million worth of its native tokens to centralized exchanges, sparking market speculation about potential selling. Concurrently, on March 4, Trump publicly urged Congress to pass the GENIUS Act, a key stablecoin regulatory bill, while accusing banking lobbyists of undermining U.S. crypto competitiveness. The situation is complicated by the fact that the Trump family stands to benefit directly from the bill's passage. WLFI, which launched USD1 in March 2025, has seen rapid growth, partly fueled by political connections, including a major investment from an Abu Dhabi sovereign fund. However, the project faces scrutiny. A U.S. House investigation is probing a secretive $500 million sale of a 49% WLFI stake to an entity linked to an UAE royal, a deal signed just days before Trump's second inauguration. Critics, including Senator Elizabeth Warren, have raised concerns about potential national security risks and conflicts of interest. The episode highlights a grey area in modern governance: a sitting president simultaneously advocating for policies that could directly enrich his family's business, while that business faces both market pressures and congressional investigations. The existing legal and regulatory framework appears insufficient to address this novel overlap of political power and private commercial interest.

marsbit03/08 07:11

A Depegging and a Tweet: When the U.S. President Begins to "Legislate Escort" for His Family Business

marsbit03/08 07:11

CBDC: Senator Pushes For Permanent Ban In Housing Act Amendment

US Senator Ted Cruz is pushing for a permanent ban on a US central bank digital currency (CBDC) by amending the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act. The original bipartisan housing bill included a temporary CBDC prohibition until December 31, 2030, introduced by Senators Tim Scott and Elizabeth Warren. Cruz aims to remove this sunset provision to enforce a permanent ban, aligning with his 2025 Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, which cites concerns over privacy and government surveillance. Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna also supports a permanent ban, warning of potential legislative conflict. Critics argue CBDCs could enable state control over spending, while proponents highlight benefits like financial inclusion and efficiency. Over 100 central banks are researching CBDCs, but only 11 have launched one. The crypto market cap stands at $2.33 trillion.

bitcoinist03/08 07:06

CBDC: Senator Pushes For Permanent Ban In Housing Act Amendment

bitcoinist03/08 07:06

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