Matrixport Research: After Five Consecutive Months of Bitcoin Decline, Conditions for a Market Rebound Are Gradually Forming
Matrixport Research: Conditions for a Market Rebound Gradually Forming After Bitcoin's Consecutive Five-Month Decline
Amid low trading volumes and weak market sentiment, with many investors shifting focus to traditional assets like gold and oil, underlying market conditions are quietly improving. Bitcoin has declined for five consecutive months—a historically rare occurrence—which has often preceded阶段性反弹 (stage-wise rebounds) in the past. Similarly, the total market cap of altcoins has fallen to a range that has historically triggered multiple rebound initiations.
Although the overall altcoin model has not yet turned bullish, the number of altcoins reclaiming their 30-day moving average and showing improved momentum through quantitative screening has significantly increased. With stablecoin funds flowing back into the market, overall liquidity conditions are also improving, pointing to a potential market inflection window.
From a historical perspective, Bitcoin often experiences阶段性反弹 (stage-wise rebounds) after three consecutive months of decline in a bear market. A sustained decline of four to six months with little recovery is relatively rare. The market is currently in such an extreme sequence, increasing the probability of a short-term counter-trend recovery.
Simultaneously, the valuation of the altcoin sector has entered a range where周期性反弹 (cyclical rebounds) have historically been more likely. When the total altcoin market cap deviates approximately 30% from its 90-day moving average, the market is often in a bottom-building phase, followed by sustained recovery in Bitcoin and altcoins. Although trading volume remains low, the price structure of some altcoins has begun to improve, and Bitcoin is potentially building a阶段性底部 (stage-wise bottom) near $66,000. If prices hold the current support zone and gradually break through key resistance levels, the recovery process is expected to continue.
Despite the overall weak performance of altcoins this cycle, some structural changes are emerging. More altcoins are reclaiming their 30-day moving average and beginning to outperform Bitcoin—often an early signal of improved market momentum. The number of altcoins selected through quantitative momentum screening has also increased significantly, with some tokens simultaneously exhibiting improved momentum and fundamental catalysts.
More importantly, the market funding environment is changing. The previous dynamic dominated by liquidations and capital outflows is gradually shifting towards capital回流 (inflows). The re-expansion of stablecoin liquidity is a key signal; in the past month, Circle's USDC alone recorded approximately $8 billion in net inflows, indicating that capital is re-entering the crypto market. As liquidity gradually improves, the probability of capital being reallocated to Bitcoin and Ethereum is also rising, which will provide support for a broader market.
Overall, while crypto market sentiment remains subdued, multiple key conditions are gradually forming. After a historically rare streak of monthly declines, Bitcoin appears to be building a potential bottom; stablecoin funds are回流 (flowing back), improving market liquidity. Simultaneously, the altcoin market breadth is expanding, with more tokens reclaiming their 30-day momentum threshold. Although the altcoin model has not yet officially turned bullish, trading setups meeting screening conditions have risen to their highest level in months. If Bitcoin confirms a trend breakout above key points, the probability of a broader阶段性反弹 (stage-wise rebound) will further increase.
Matrixport03/13 10:14
