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Your Backtest Is Lying: Why You Must Use Point-in-Time Data

This article warns against a common pitfall in backtesting trading strategies: look-ahead bias caused by using revised historical data. It illustrates this with a hypothetical Bitcoin strategy based on exchange outflows from Binance. The strategy is built on the premise that sustained outflows (when the 5-day moving average of BTC balance falls below the 14-day average) are bullish, while inflows signal a sell-off. An initial backtest using standard, revised data shows the strategy performing comparably to a simple buy-and-hold approach. However, the author argues these results are misleading because the data has been updated with information that wasn't available in real-time. This data mutation creates an unfair advantage in the backtest. To demonstrate, the test is rerun using Point-in-Time (PiT) data—an immutable, append-only record that reflects only what was known on any given day. The results are significantly worse, as the PiT-based strategy misses key profitable moves. The key takeaway is that accurate backtesting requires immutable Point-in-Time data to avoid look-ahead bias and replay history honestly.

insights.glassnode03/13 14:12

Your Backtest Is Lying: Why You Must Use Point-in-Time Data

insights.glassnode03/13 14:12

Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) Builds Strength: Will the 9% Jump Trigger a Breakout?

Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) has surged by 9.63%, trading at $0.007779, with a 31% monthly increase. Analysts suggest limited resistance above, potentially enabling a rapid 50% rally if it breaks above $0.01. Key resistance levels are at $0.008219 and $0.008765, with a golden cross formation possible. Support lies at $0.007239, with risks of a decline to $0.006710 if bears regain control. Technical indicators show an overbought RSI at 72.26, mild bullish pressure from Bull Bear Power, and a bullish MACD crossover. The Chaikin Money Flow indicates slight buying momentum, supporting continued upward potential if accumulation increases.

TheNewsCrypto03/13 14:04

Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) Builds Strength: Will the 9% Jump Trigger a Breakout?

TheNewsCrypto03/13 14:04

Bitcoin Policy Institute to Assess Federal Reserve Basel Proposal on Bitcoin Risk Rules

The Bitcoin Policy Institute announced it will review an upcoming Federal Reserve proposal that could influence how U.S. banks handle Bitcoin under international banking rules. The Fed is expected to release a proposal next week detailing how major banks should apply Basel risk-weighting regulations, followed by a 90-day public comment period. Currently, Basel rules assign Bitcoin a 1250% risk weight, classifying it as an extremely high-risk asset. This requires banks to hold significantly larger reserves to cover Bitcoin-related exposures, which critics argue discourages banking engagement with the cryptocurrency sector. The policy could restrict services for Bitcoin firms, custody solutions for investors, and overall financial infrastructure supporting Bitcoin. The Institute plans to analyze the proposal and submit formal feedback, as the outcome may shape traditional banks' future involvement in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

TheNewsCrypto03/13 14:03

Bitcoin Policy Institute to Assess Federal Reserve Basel Proposal on Bitcoin Risk Rules

TheNewsCrypto03/13 14:03

Oracle's 2026 Financial Report Analysis: Strategic Transformation of a Database Company in the AI Computing Era

Oracle's Q3 FY2026 earnings report reveals a strategic transformation from a traditional database software company to an AI infrastructure provider. Revenue reached $17.2 billion, up 22% YoY, with cloud services driving growth—OCI revenue surged 84% to $4.9 billion. The remaining performance obligation (RPO) grew 325% to $553 billion, indicating strong future contract revenue. Oracle is capitalizing on AI-driven demand for GPU computing, data centers, and high-performance networks, positioning OCI as a key platform for AI training and inference. This shift leverages its legacy database customer base while embracing cloud and AI convergence. However, the strategy requires massive investment, with planned capex of ~$50 billion in FY2026, funded by debt and equity offerings. While still a smaller player compared to AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud, Oracle aims to compete in the AI compute market by integrating data management, cloud infrastructure, and AI capabilities. The success of this bet depends on sustained AI demand, customer adoption, and ROI from investments. The report marks a pivotal moment in Oracle’s evolution toward becoming an AI infrastructure leader.

marsbit03/13 13:32

Oracle's 2026 Financial Report Analysis: Strategic Transformation of a Database Company in the AI Computing Era

marsbit03/13 13:32

Altcoin Spot Activity Slumps, But Bitcoin Volume Stays Resilient

On-chain data reveals a divergence in cryptocurrency spot trading volumes. While the combined spot volume for the top 500 digital assets has been in a sustained slump since October 2023, Bitcoin's volume has shown resilience. After initially declining with the broader market, BTC's spot activity saw a significant uplift in February, including a large spike during a sharp price drop. This suggests the ongoing market-wide decline is primarily driven by reduced altcoin activity. In related news, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recently registered positive weekly net flows after a period of outflows, potentially signaling a shift in institutional sentiment. At the time of writing, Bitcoin's price is trading around $70,400.

bitcoinist03/13 13:03

Altcoin Spot Activity Slumps, But Bitcoin Volume Stays Resilient

bitcoinist03/13 13:03

Bitcoin and Gold Diverge as Iran Conflict Shifts ETF Flows

According to a JPMorgan investor note, the traditional correlation between Bitcoin and gold has significantly broken down due to the Iran conflict, with the two safe-haven assets moving in opposite directions. While geopolitical instability typically drives unified flows into havens, capital is now shifting toward Bitcoin. Since February 27, major gold ETFs have seen outflows of about 2.7% of assets under management. In contrast, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded inflows of approximately 1.5% in the same period. This reversal indicates growing institutional preference for Bitcoin ETFs over gold, despite crypto's higher volatility. JPMorgan also noted rising short interest in IBIT amid the conflict, even as ETF inflows continue.

TheNewsCrypto03/13 12:59

Bitcoin and Gold Diverge as Iran Conflict Shifts ETF Flows

TheNewsCrypto03/13 12:59

50 Million USDT for 35,000 USD worth of AAVE: How Did the Disaster Happen? And Who Should We Blame?

In a catastrophic DeFi transaction, a user swapped 50.43 million aEthUSDT (Aave interest-bearing USDT) for only 327.24 aEthAAVE (worth ~$35,900), resulting in a near-total loss of value. The transaction was a collateral swap executed via CoW Protocol’s settlement system and Aave’s interface. The failure occurred due to a deeply flawed routing path: after redeeming USDT from Aave, the funds were routed through a highly liquid Uniswap V3 USDT/WETH pool (correctly executing the first swap). However, the entire amount of ~17,958 WETH was then sent to a tiny SushiSwap V2 AAVE/WETH pool with only ~331 AAVE and ~17.65 WETH in reserves. The massive trade drained 99.9% of the pool's AAVE, resulting in an effective execution price of ~$154,114 per AAVE—over 1000x worse than market price. Critical systemic failures were identified: 1. Aave’s interface requested a CoW quote without including critical hook metadata, leading to an inaccurate quote. 2. CoW’s solver competition logic deemed any quote with non-zero output and positive gas cost as "valid," with no sanity checks against market price or liquidity depth. 3. The routing algorithm modeled the tiny SushiSwap pool as a valid execution venue purely based on its constant-product formula, ignoring the economic absurdity. 4. Aave’s UI only provided a soft warning (a checkbox) for high price impact instead of a hard stop. The lost value was instantly arbitraged in the next block, benefiting MEV searchers and block builders. The core protocols (Aave, CoW Settlement, Uniswap, SushiSwap) functioned as coded. The primary blame lies with CoW’s inadequate routing quality controls and Aave’s flawed interface quote generation and weak risk safeguards.

Odaily星球日报03/13 12:47

50 Million USDT for 35,000 USD worth of AAVE: How Did the Disaster Happen? And Who Should We Blame?

Odaily星球日报03/13 12:47

CLARITY Act May Not Pass Before April, Says Senate Leader John Thune

Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the CLARITY Act, a key cryptocurrency market structure bill, is unlikely to be considered before April. The legislation aims to clarify regulatory roles for digital assets in the U.S., specifically defining the responsibilities of agencies like the SEC and CFTC. Lawmakers are currently prioritizing other pressing issues, including the SAVE America Act. Thune expressed hope that the market structure bill would advance later, though not immediately. There are concerns that delays could hinder U.S. competitiveness, as other countries like China may gain ground in crypto innovation. Despite the postponement, there is optimism that the bill could pass in 2026 if negotiations proceed smoothly. The act seeks to reduce regulatory uncertainty and support innovation in the digital asset market.

TheNewsCrypto03/13 12:38

CLARITY Act May Not Pass Before April, Says Senate Leader John Thune

TheNewsCrypto03/13 12:38

Lobsters Not Yet Grown, Giants Already Casting Nets: OpenClaw Ecosystem Faces Enclosure Crisis

The article discusses the controversy surrounding Chinese tech giant Tencent's launch of SkillHub, a localized platform for the OpenClaw ecosystem. OpenClaw founder Peter Steinberger publicly accused Tencent of copying the project without providing support, specifically criticizing its impact on official download statistics. Tencent responded that SkillHub is a mirror site designed to serve Chinese users, citing reduced bandwidth strain on the official source and offering sponsorship. Steinberger countered that the core issue was not technical but a lack of prior communication and the risk of Tencent controlling user access and data. The author argues that the incident reflects a broader pattern of major Chinese tech companies exploiting open-source ecosystems for market dominance. While mirror sites are common in China, Tencent’s move is seen as an attempt to capture the user entry point and potential future commercialization of the Agent-based AI ecosystem represented by OpenClaw. The article warns that such platforms, under the guise of localization and convenience, may eventually lead to walled gardens where Tencent controls distribution, visibility, and monetization—echoing past strategies in sectors like ride-hailing and short-video platforms. The piece concludes that OpenClaw’s open, community-driven vision is at risk of being co-opted by corporate interests before it fully matures.

比推03/13 12:32

Lobsters Not Yet Grown, Giants Already Casting Nets: OpenClaw Ecosystem Faces Enclosure Crisis

比推03/13 12:32

Pharos Network Expands RealFi Alliance, Joins Forces with Strategic Research and Intelligence Partners to Enhance Institutional Transparency

Pharos Network, a RealFi inclusive financial Layer 1 project, has expanded its RealFi Alliance by adding strategic "Smart Partners" focused on research, data, and institutional infrastructure. The new partners include Dune, Four Pillars, Web3Caff Research, Anchorage Digital, Alchemy, Aquaflux, and Yield Network. These collaborations aim to address information asymmetry and enhance institutional transparency in decentralized markets. Key initiatives include in-depth institutional research, real-time verifiable dashboards for RWA fund flows, enterprise-grade RPC infrastructure, federally regulated banking and custody services, on-chain treasury management, and improved capital efficiency. A core objective is to establish a standardized "RealFi Research Framework" to measure RWA performance, risk, and compliance. According to Pharos CEO Wish Wu, the partnership ensures that assets on Pharos receive the same level of scrutiny and transparency as traditional capital markets. Pharos Network is a modular Layer 1 blockchain designed for RealFi, combining institutional-grade asset circulation with decentralized composability. It is developed by a team with backgrounds from Ant Group and backed by investors like Hack VC and Faction VC.

marsbit03/13 12:26

Pharos Network Expands RealFi Alliance, Joins Forces with Strategic Research and Intelligence Partners to Enhance Institutional Transparency

marsbit03/13 12:26

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