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The Stronger the Consensus, the Greater the Risk: The Market Is 'Eerily Quiet' Amid Rate Cut Expectations

In the context of the upcoming Fed rate decision, market consensus strongly expects a 25 basis point cut, with over 85% probability priced in. However, this high level of agreement means the actual rate cut may not significantly move markets, as it has already been anticipated. The real focus is on the Fed’s forward guidance, particularly the "dot plot" showing policymakers' interest rate projections for 2026. The Fed faces unusual uncertainty due to a recent government shutdown, which delayed key inflation data (CPI) for October and November. This lack of recent data may lead to more ambiguous signals from the Fed, increasing potential market volatility. Three scenarios are outlined: 1. **Baseline (most likely)**: The Fed cuts rates as expected and maintains previous guidance, resulting in minimal market reaction. 2. **Dovish**: The Fed signals more rate cuts in 2026 than previously indicated, potentially boosting risk assets like Bitcoin and equities. 3. **Hawkish**: The Fed emphasizes persistent inflation and limited future cuts, which could strengthen the dollar and pressure crypto and other risk assets. The article’s key argument is that high consensus often implies higher risk, as markets are driven by surprises relative to expectations. Investors are advised to focus on managing position risks amid elevated uncertainty rather than betting on specific outcomes.

比推12/10 05:58

The Stronger the Consensus, the Greater the Risk: The Market Is 'Eerily Quiet' Amid Rate Cut Expectations

比推12/10 05:58

Strategy’s Saylor has a new Bitcoin-based banking idea – What are the details?

Michael Saylor has proposed a radical Bitcoin-based banking system aimed at nations in the Middle East. His plan targets the $20–$50 trillion currently locked in low-yield sovereign and corporate bonds in developed economies like Japan and Europe. Saylor advocates for a regulated, zero-volatility bank product offering an 8% yield, backed by Bitcoin. He argues that such a system would instantly transform the adopting nation into the world's digital banking capital, attracting massive capital inflows. The structure would use a mix of digital credit and currency with a reserve buffer to eliminate volatility. Saylor's company, MicroStrategy, recently reinforced its commitment by purchasing over 10,000 BTC worth nearly $1 billion.

ambcrypto12/10 05:06

Strategy’s Saylor has a new Bitcoin-based banking idea – What are the details?

ambcrypto12/10 05:06

Bitcoin Meets Shari’ah Finance As UAE Bank Leads The Way

Ruya Bank has launched in-app Bitcoin trading, becoming the first Shari’ah-compliant bank to offer this service via a mobile banking application. The offering, approved by the bank's Shari’ah-governance board, was developed in partnership with regulated digital asset infrastructure provider Fuze, which handles custody, settlement, and compliance. The service is positioned as a Shari’ah-approved investment option rather than a tool for speculation. This development provides a regulated pathway for Muslim investors who have previously avoided cryptocurrency due to religious concerns. The UAE, which saw $30 billion in virtual-asset inflows in a recent 12-month period, is creating clearer regulations, encouraging more financial institutions to integrate crypto services. Ruya plans to consider adding more digital assets in the future, focusing on long-term wealth planning rather than short-term trading.

bitcoinist12/10 05:03

Bitcoin Meets Shari’ah Finance As UAE Bank Leads The Way

bitcoinist12/10 05:03

Make crypto games great again? ‘Trump Billionaires Club’ launches this month

A Trump-themed crypto mobile game, "Trump Billionaires Club," is set to launch on the Apple App Store by December 30. Created by Freedom 45 Games and linked to the TRUMP Coin, the game operates under a licensing agreement to use Trump’s name. It features a Monopoly-style board where players use dice rolls to earn funds for construction and other activities. The game integrates cryptocurrency and NFTs, allowing players to fund accounts with cash, crypto, or TRUMP Coin, and trade in-game items. A pre-launch airdrop of Trump tokens is offered to top performers. However, a disclaimer states the game is not affiliated with Donald Trump, his businesses, or any campaign, and collectibles are for enjoyment, not investment. This launch occurs as the Trump memecoin has dropped 92% from its all-time high, though it saw a slight uptick following the game's announcement.

cointelegraph12/10 05:02

Make crypto games great again? ‘Trump Billionaires Club’ launches this month

cointelegraph12/10 05:02

Strive Launches $500M Stock Offering to Expand Bitcoin Holdings

Strive, a publicly traded asset manager co-founded by Vivek Ramaswamy, announced a $500 million preferred stock offering to expand its Bitcoin holdings and cover corporate expenses. The company, already a top 20 corporate Bitcoin holder with 7,525 BTC, recently grew through a reverse merger and a deal with Semler Scientific. Its Bitcoin treasury strategy has driven significant investor confidence, with shares more than doubling this year. CEO Matt Cole also recently challenged MSCI's proposal to exclude crypto-heavy companies from indexes, advocating for market-driven acceptance of Bitcoin in traditional investment portfolios.

TheNewsCrypto12/10 04:53

Strive Launches $500M Stock Offering to Expand Bitcoin Holdings

TheNewsCrypto12/10 04:53

"No Questions Asked, Cash Accepted": A Record of Cryptocurrency Street Trading in Montenegro

In Montenegro, cryptocurrency transactions operate in a regulatory vacuum, with unverified intermediaries facilitating anonymous cash-for-crypto exchanges on the streets of Podgorica. A BIRN investigation documented a typical transaction: 70 USDT swapped for €60 cash in minutes, with no questions asked about fund origins. These over-the-counter (OTC) deals, often arranged via Telegram groups, bypass banks and legal oversight. Blockchain analysis revealed one trader’s wallet handled millions in transactions over a year, with a quarter flagged as medium-to-high risk—including ties to frozen or sanctioned funds. Traders include locals and foreigners from Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey, who rely on cash exchanges due to banking access barriers. Despite 2025 anti-money laundering amendments requiring KYC checks for transactions over €1,000, enforcement remains absent. Montenegro’s EU-aligned crypto laws are pending, aiming to regulate service providers and enable tax oversight. For now, the gray market thrives, unregistered and unchecked.

marsbit12/10 04:46

"No Questions Asked, Cash Accepted": A Record of Cryptocurrency Street Trading in Montenegro

marsbit12/10 04:46

New Huo Tech Livio: Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade Value Underestimated

New Huo Tech's Livio argues that the Ethereum Fusaka upgrade, completed on December 3, is significantly undervalued by the market. Occurring during a period of extreme pessimism and a major crypto market correction, the upgrade went largely unnoticed but represents a critical strategic improvement to Ethereum’s economic model and ecosystem performance. Fusaka systematically tackles two core bottlenecks: high costs and poor user experience. It achieves a "cost revolution" by dramatically reducing Layer-2 (L2) transaction fees—potentially as low as $0.001 per transaction—without overburdening the Layer-1 (L1) mainnet. This enables economically viable high-frequency applications like on-chain gaming, social dApps, AI agent settlements, and RWA (Real World Asset) trading. The upgrade also delivers a user experience leap by natively supporting Passkey authentication, allowing users to sign transactions using biometrics like fingerprints or FaceID instead of managing complex seed phrases. This shift makes using crypto wallets as seamless as conventional apps, lowering the barrier to entry for mainstream adoption. Most importantly, Fusaka fundamentally overhauls Ethereum’s tokenomics. It establishes a structured "taxation" system where L2s must pay fees to the L1 for security and data capacity. These fees are burned, creating a stable, endogenous "buyback" mechanism for ETH. As L2 activity grows, this is projected to result in an additional 3,000–10,000 ETH burned annually, shifting Ethereum from an inflationary to a deflationary or slightly inflationary model. This ties ETH's value directly to network usage, strengthening its role as the risk hub and settlement layer for the entire L2 economy. With Fusaka, Ethereum’s scaling roadmap is affirmed, with potential L2 TPS reaching 10,000 and eventually 100,000+. The upgrade is a pivotal step towards mass Web3 commercialization, and its strategic long-term value is currently underestimated by the market.

marsbit12/10 04:45

New Huo Tech Livio: Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade Value Underestimated

marsbit12/10 04:45

NFT Market Faces Steepest Decline as Sales Plummet to Year’s Low

The NFT market experienced its worst performance in 2025, with November sales plummeting 49% to $320 million from October’s $629 million. The total market capitalization also fell sharply to $3.1 billion, down 66% from its January peak of $9.2 billion. The first week of December saw only $62 million in sales, marking the slowest week of the year and signaling continued weakness in the market. Most major NFT collections suffered significant losses. CryptoPunks dropped 12%, Bored Ape Yacht Club fell 8.5%, and Pudgy Penguins declined 10.6%. Art-focused collections like Fidenza and Moonbirds also saw steep declines of 14.6% and 17.9%, respectively. Hypurr recorded the largest drop among top collections, falling 48% in November. Only two collections posted gains: Infinex Patrons rose 14.9%, and Autoglyphs increased by 20.9%. Industry observers note a lack of momentum and few signs of near-term recovery, raising concerns about the sector’s short-term prospects as investor interest wanes.

TheNewsCrypto12/10 04:28

NFT Market Faces Steepest Decline as Sales Plummet to Year’s Low

TheNewsCrypto12/10 04:28

Bitcoin FOMO trickles back at $94K, but Fed could spoil the party

Bitcoin prices surged to a three-week high, reaching $94,625 on Coinbase, driven by a wave of FOMO (fear of missing out) among traders, according to Santiment. However, the rally was short-lived, with prices retreating to around $92,400. Analysts warn that the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision could challenge the upward momentum, as markets widely expect a 0.25% rate cut. Any hesitation from the Fed regarding future cuts may negatively impact Bitcoin and crypto markets. Additionally, a long-term investor suggested the price spike appeared manipulated, citing thin order books and clustered market buys as signs of an engineered pump to create retail FOMO. Volatility is expected around the Fed announcement.

cointelegraph12/10 04:05

Bitcoin FOMO trickles back at $94K, but Fed could spoil the party

cointelegraph12/10 04:05

What BlackRock’s Latest Filing Means For The Ethereum Price

BlackRock's iShares division has filed with the SEC to launch a staked Ethereum ETF, named the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHB). This new product would hold ether directly and stake 70-90% of its assets through external validators, allowing investors to gain both ETH price exposure and staking rewards via a regulated vehicle. The structure is seen as bullish for Ethereum, as it integrates staking into traditional finance and could reduce the liquid supply of ETH over time due to large inflows being locked in staking. While the filing does not guarantee immediate approval or short-term price impact, it signals growing institutional interest in Ethereum's yield-generating capabilities and could broaden its appeal to long-term investors. If approved, the ETF is expected to trade on Nasdaq under the ticker ETHB.

bitcoinist12/10 04:02

What BlackRock’s Latest Filing Means For The Ethereum Price

bitcoinist12/10 04:02

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