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They Knew the TGA Game of the Year Winner in Advance and Made Tens of Thousands of Dollars

Summary: The 2025 TGA (The Game Awards) ceremony concluded with the indie game "Light & Shadow: Expedition 33" making history by winning both "Best Independent Game" and the coveted "Game of the Year (GOTY)" award, breaking a long-standing TGA curse. Prior to the event, the prediction market platform Polymarket had already listed the topic, with "Light & Shadow's" probability of winning GOTY consistently above 80% for over a month. Several traders, including users DieselDiesel, trumpnogo, and kasae, placed unusually large, concentrated bets on this outcome weeks in advance, a move that would have resulted in massive losses if wrong. Their bets appeared to be "all-in" convictions rather than calculated risks. Just three hours before the GOTY announcement, after the "Best Indie" award was given to the same game, a mysterious user (bobo9997) deposited $10,000 and bet it all on "Yes" for "Light & Shadow" winning GOTY at a price of $0.98 per share—a bet that would yield less than $200 in profit if correct. The final award confirmed the predictions. The early traders realized significant profits, with their winnings from this single event representing a large percentage of their total historical earnings on the platform (e.g., 176% for DieselDiesel). The article suggests these traders likely had insider knowledge of the results, using the prediction market as a anonymous, low-risk method to monetize their confidential information, turning a guaranteed outcome into thousands of dollars with virtually no risk.

marsbit12/12 07:40

They Knew the TGA Game of the Year Winner in Advance and Made Tens of Thousands of Dollars

marsbit12/12 07:40

Weekly Review and Outlook | Circle Issues 500 Million USDC on Solana; Japan Plans to Include Crypto Assets in Securities Regulatory Framework; Gemini Approved by CFTC to Establish Prediction Market; Fed Cuts Benchmark Rate by 25 Basis Points

This week in crypto and financial markets was marked by significant developments and regulatory shifts. Circle issued an additional 500 million USDC on the Solana network, reflecting strong demand for the stablecoin, with trading volume exceeding $11.9 billion within 24 hours. Dubai Customs partnered with Binance to explore crypto payments for trade and logistics, aiming to enhance efficiency and reduce costs. Twenty One Capital, backed by Tether and Bitfinex, began trading on the NYSE, though its stock fell 20% on the first day. Strive launched a $500 million ATM financing plan, partly to acquire more BTC, while American Bitcoin increased its holdings to 4,783 BTC. Japan's FSA proposed bringing crypto assets and IEOs under securities regulations, requiring stricter disclosures and cracking down on insider trading. Jupiter announced its own stablecoin, JUP USD, and acquired RainFi to offer peer-to-peer lending services. Gemini received CFTC approval to launch a blockchain-based prediction market, potentially expanding into crypto derivatives. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, responding to slowing economic growth. Looking ahead, HashKey Group plans to raise up to HK$1.67 billion in its Hong Kong IPO on December 17. Several tokens, including Starknet, Arbitrum, and LayerZero, are scheduled for unlocks next week, which may influence market liquidity.

cointelegraph_中文12/12 07:25

Weekly Review and Outlook | Circle Issues 500 Million USDC on Solana; Japan Plans to Include Crypto Assets in Securities Regulatory Framework; Gemini Approved by CFTC to Establish Prediction Market; Fed Cuts Benchmark Rate by 25 Basis Points

cointelegraph_中文12/12 07:25

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