Стоит ли ждать рост Биткойна к Новому году?

VC.ruPublicado em 2022-11-02Última atualização em 2022-11-02

Resumo

Согласно анализа, проведенного одним из ведущих аналитиков TradingView, рост BTC исходя из имеющихся факторов, стоит ждать не ранее начала 2023 года.

Согласно анализа, проведенного одним из ведущих аналитиков TradingView, рост BTC исходя из имеющихся факторов, стоит ждать не ранее начала 2023 года.

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На недельном графике видно, что курс BTC, продолжая торговаться боком, все отчетливее обозначает "нижнюю фазу тренда в районе MA300". При этом, первый серьезный прорыв в предыдущих циклах произошел тогда, когда курс пробил линию нисходящих минимумов (ATH).

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В своем анализе TradingShot помимо ключевых линий сопротивления (MA200 и MA50), которые еще только предстоит пробить, линии тренда понижающихся минимумов и фактора халвинга в 2024 году, после которого "рост происходит по определению", так же использует индикатор Vortex.

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«Синяя и красная линии индикатора Vortex разошлись, сформировав крест, что исторически всегда происходит перед ралли.»

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Значение индикатора Vortex выступает в качестве раннего сигнала роста. Вместе с тем, автор исследования отмечает, что на преодоление сопротивления каждой из трендовых линий в предыдущих двух циклах ушло несколько недель. При этом, прорыв выше линии тренда нисходящих минимумов случался примерно за 55 недель до халвинга:

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«Следующий халвинг произойдёт в начале марта 2024 года. Прогнозируемый диапазон пробоя ATH и теста 1D MA50 можно ожидать в пределах недельных свечей от 30 января 2023 года до 27 февраля 2023 года [~$20-21k]. Отклонение Vortex от [медвежьего] креста пока подтверждает такой сценарий.»

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