Written by: Rita
According to a Reuters report on August 4th, the Trump administration and the FCC are drafting a plan to ban U.S. imports of Chinese data center components, with optical modules specifically mentioned. In a research report dated August 10th, Goldman Sachs responded to the three most pressing questions from investors: why leading Chinese optical module manufacturers continue to gain customer favor, whether production capacity and cost efficiency constitute a competitive moat, and whether overseas capacity布局 can hedge risks. Goldman Sachs judges that rapid technological iteration, strong AI demand, tight raw material supply, and the high R&D requirements for multiple SKU varieties make customers more reliant on existing leading manufacturers in the current environment and less likely to switch to new suppliers easily. Goldman Sachs gives a Buy rating to Chinese optical module leaders New Easynet and Robotech, while also assigning Buy ratings to FOCI, LandMark, and VPEC (all listed in Taiwan), believing these companies possess difficult-to-replicate competitive advantages in technology, capacity, and customer collaboration.
Rapid Technological Iteration, Leading Manufacturers' R&D Advantage Continues to Expand
AI server architecture is still evolving rapidly. Optical module speeds progress from 400G to 800G to 1.6T, packaging forms evolve from pluggable to LPO to NPO to CPO, materials shift from EML to silicon photonics to lithium niobate, and fiber types range from single-mode to multi-mode. SKU varieties are numerous and continuously expanding, with each new specification requiring manufacturers to possess rapid response and R&D capabilities.
Goldman Sachs believes this rapidly evolving technological environment will only increase customer reliance on existing leading manufacturers. New suppliers would need more time to demonstrate product stability while also needing to re-coordinate with chip suppliers, system integrators, and other component manufacturers to meet quality and design specifications. Historically, leading Chinese manufacturers successfully launched the world's first 400G (2018), 800G (2020), and 1.6T (2023) optical modules. This leading position is widening as AI continues its upgrade cycle.
Capacity and Costs Form Barriers, Small-to-Medium Manufacturers Hard-Pressed to Catch Up Short-Term
Seven of the world's top ten optical module suppliers are headquartered in China, with their market share in 2025 projected to further increase compared to 2024. Beyond R&D capabilities, leading manufacturers' advantages in capacity commitment, automated production, and manufacturing efficiency are equally prominent. Proprietary production lines and specialized equipment allow them to achieve rapid product deployment at competitive prices.
Goldman Sachs points out that product specification upgrades to 1.6T and beyond not only increase design difficulty but also manufacturing complexity. The volume of optical modules does not increase, yet more fibers and lasers must be packed into the same space to achieve higher speeds, multiplying coupling and thermal dissipation challenges. Small-to-medium manufacturers in this fast-evolving technological landscape would require significantly more time to reach the same level of manufacturing efficiency.
Overseas Capacity Layout Underway, Southeast Asian Factories Already in Mass Production
Macro uncertainties are not new. From geopolitical tensions in 2019, the pandemic from 2020 to 2022, to tariff increases in 2025, technology supply chains have been mitigating risks through geographically dispersed production over the past few years. Leading manufacturers are not only expanding capacity in Southeast Asia (capable of producing high-end products like 1.6T) but are also making布局 in other countries to further diversify manufacturing bases.
New Easynet's Thailand Phase 1 is already at full capacity, with Phase 2 expansion planned for 2026. Goldman Sachs believes the提前布局 of overseas capacity provides leading manufacturers with a buffer space. This view does not contradict the judgment in Citigroup's report that "overseas capacity is insufficient to fill the gap"—it is insufficient to cover all demand in the short term, but the long-term trend towards diversification is already established.
Goldman Sachs concludes that while market concerns over a potential U.S. ban are understandable, the competitive moat of leading Chinese optical module manufacturers is far deeper than the impact of short-term tariff shocks. Accumulated technological R&D, automated production line efficiency, deep collaboration with customers, and提前布局 overseas capacity together constitute competitive barriers that are difficult to replicate in the short term. AI-driven demand for optical modules continues to accelerate its upgrade cycle, and the market share expansion trend of leading manufacturers is unlikely to reverse due to a draft ban proposal that has not yet been implemented.
Disclaimer
This article is Trend Research's整理与解读 of a third-party securities research report (Goldman Sachs, August 10, 2026), combined with整理 of publicly available market information. The ratings, target prices, profit forecasts, and related judgments cited in the article are the views of the analyst(s) of that securities firm, representing only the stance of their institution, and do not represent the views of Trend Research, nor do they constitute any investment advice.
The market carries risks; decisions must be made independently. This article should not serve as the basis for trading any securities.
