Galaxy Digital estimates the probability of the Crypto-Asset Regulatory Clarity Act (CLARITY) passing in 2026 at 10%.
It warned that several political issues remain unresolved, and that after the Senate resumes work on September 14th, there will only be about two to three weeks left for the law to be passed.
If a vote on the initial procedural motion to proceed does not occur immediately after lawmakers return to Washington, the Senate will have enough time to pass the CLARITY Act only if it "essentially takes up the entire working session," wrote Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, in a Friday post on X.
Thorn added that lawmakers still need to resolve several issues, including ethics rules for government officials related to their involvement in the crypto industry, as well as pressure from banks over provisions on stablecoin yields.
Galaxy lowered its previous estimate from 60% to 50% on June 26th after lowering it from 75% to 60% on June 6th. The 75% estimate was set on May 22nd.
The CLARITY Act aims to create the first regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States, but has faced criticism. In May, it passed through the Senate Banking Committee, but most Democrats and representatives from the banking industry opposed it, stating that the law would allow crypto companies to offer yields on stablecoins without adhering to the same requirements as banks.
In early June, more than 200 crypto companies and organizations called on the U.S. Senate to pass the CLARITY Act in a letter published by the crypto lobbying group Stand With Crypto.
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