Bitcoin is trading at $65,457 on July 27, up 0.18%, following Iran signaling a willingness to halt hostilities, simultaneously putting pressure on the bearish market resistance band that has capped all upside attempts since February.
$BTC is squeezed between the bear market resistance band and its EMA cluster.
The daily chart shows $BTC consolidating between the 20-day EMA at $64,475 and the upper Bollinger Band at $66,578, with a descending red trendline from the May peak passing through the same zone. This trendline is Benjamin Cowen's bear market resistance band, and it has rejected the price on every approach since February. The 50-day EMA at $65,045 aligns almost exactly with the current price, making the EMA cluster an immediate support test.
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The Bollinger Middle Line at $64,410 and the 20-day EMA at $64,475 form a narrow support zone just below. A close above the upper Bollinger Band at $66,578 and the descending trendline would be the first real signal of a breakout recovery. Above that, the next target is the 100-day EMA at $67,717, with the 200-day EMA at $73,421 as the long-term ceiling. The lower Bollinger Band at $62,243 defines the lower floor if support gives way.
What are the key support and resistance levels for $BTC today?
- Support at $65,045 on the 50-day EMA and $64,475 on the 20-day EMA
- Resistance at $66,578 on the upper Bollinger Band and the descending bear market resistance band
- Extended resistance at $67,717 on the 100-day EMA
- Key low at $62,243 on the lower Bollinger Band
Iran's ceasefire signal could be the needed macro-market unlock
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe reported on July 26 that Iran has indicated it will halt attacks provided the US suspends military operations.
Van de Poppe characterized this as a great sign for Bitcoin and crypto markets and called for a green week. Geopolitical tensions since June have been a persistent headwind for risk assets, with spikes in oil prices and uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz repeatedly unsettling sentiment at key technical levels.
Benjamin Cowen sees a replay of 2018 with August declines
Cowen's latest video shows Bitcoin's 2026 structure relative to 2018: a February low, a high low in late March, the June low range in early July, and the current rally back to the bear market resistance band.
In 2018, this rally lasted until late July before giving back all gains in August and September. His base case is the same outcome: Q4 forms the market cycle bottom where on-chain indicators historically reset. His turnaround condition remains unchanged: if $BTC doesn't break out by year-end, he calls the bull market back on.
Anthony Scaramucci says $10 trillion is Bitcoin's next stop
Speaking on The Wolf of All Streets podcast, Scaramucci noted that Bitcoin's $1.2 trillion market cap is roughly the size of Micron Technology, arguing that a $10 trillion valuation still wouldn't be proportionate to global capital markets. He used gold's $28 trillion market cap as a benchmark, calling Bitcoin more scarce, more portable, and easier to move than the metal it increasingly competes with. He characterized the current environment as apathy, not a structural breakdown, drawing a parallel to Uber, where technologies that truly serve people eventually win, regardless of who tries to block them.
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Regarding the clarity bill, Scaramucci flatly stated he does not see it passing, not out of pessimism but due to how Washington actually works. He argued Democrats have every incentive to block the bill simply to deny Trump a victory, irrespective of the bill's merits. He cited former SEC Chairman Paul Atkins as a steady hand but warned that without legislation, crypto regulation remains a pendulum swinging at the whim of those in power.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Upside and downside targets
- Upside case: Iran's ceasefire signal holds, $BTC closes above the upper Bollinger Band at $66,578 and the bear market resistance zone, the FOMC confirms a hold on rates on July 29, and van de Poppe's green week pushes towards the 100-day EMA at $67,717 amid a declining geopolitical risk premium.
- Downside case: Cowen's 2018 analog plays out on the chart, $BTC is rejected at the bear market resistance zone, the 50-day EMA at $65,045 fails to hold support, and price drops towards the Bollinger Middle Line at $64,410 and the 20-day EMA at $64,475 as August seasonal weakness sets in.
