[Key interpretation] BTC long-term investors fled with an overall profit of 20%, and eth leverage rebounded

Huobi ResearchPublicado em 2022-08-09Última atualização em 2022-08-10

Resumo

The BTC financing interest rate rebounded and continued to accumulate the energy for changing the price.

1. BTC rose slightly, not exceeding expectations

In the daily K-line chart, the BTC price hit a short-term high of US $24000 in one trading day. During the short-term rebound of the price, the increase did not exceed expectations. The reason is that during the two trading days of BTC volume reduction, the trading heat continued to decrease, and the best time point for changing orders was reached.

Considering the increasing differences between long and short contracts in BTC contracts, the number of short contracts increased. At the same time, investors with medium - and long-term currency holdings have expanded their trading profits, and the selling pressure has emerged. The adjustment of expectations is also worthy of attention.

2. Long term investors gain profits on the chain

The profit space of BTC's on-line transfer has significantly increased, especially the profit space of the main transfer of medium and long-term currency holding has increased, which means the increase of high selling transactions. On August 6, the SOPR proportion of medium - and long-term currency holders rebounded to 1.20, which means that the main force transferred to BTC when the overall profit was 20%. In the adjustment stage, the main profit transfer shows that the selling pressure increases slightly, and the impact of long cashing income on the price is negative.

3. Investors' BTC transaction financing cost increased

Recently, the overall financing cost of BTC has continued to rebound significantly. Numerically, the financing cost of BTC has not only remained above 0, but also reached 1.0077, indicating that the buying attraction of BTC has increased in the rebound stage. At present, the investor's financing to buy BTC is not strong, which makes the next price performance opportunities less. Nevertheless, the current market performance is still stable. With the purchase price maintained at the current level, the opportunity for BTC to rebound still exists.

4. Eth trading volume continues to be depressed

The daily K-line trend of eth is relatively stable, and the price contraction rebounds to around us $1910 corresponding to 61.8% of Fibonacci. The price signs face selling pressure and the room for increase is limited. Next, ETH may maintain weak consolidation in the short term, and the price does not send a radical pull signal on the rise, so the performance of the rise needs to be treated with caution.

5. Eth estimated leverage rebound

Eth estimated that the leverage ratio rebounded slightly. Numerically, the leverage ratio has reached a short-term high of 0.223, indicating that investors' bets on market changes have increased significantly. Looking back at the performance of the estimated leverage ratio, ETH continues to show strong volatility expectations. At the same time, it is noted that eth faces great breakthrough pressure in terms of price, and short-term trading opportunities in the range of US $1800 to US $1900 can be properly paid attention to.

Leituras Relacionadas

NVIDIA CPU Advances, China's RISC-V Responds: Semiconductor Deep Dive - Part Four

NVIDIA is set to launch its new Vera AI data center CPU in China as early as August, with high pricing. While this move offers a new option, it highlights China's continued dependence on foreign-controlled Arm architecture. In response, the Chinese semiconductor industry is increasingly turning to RISC-V as a strategic alternative for achieving high-performance computing autonomy. The article explores the concept of the "impossible triangle" in CPU development—balancing prosperity, control, and autonomy—and posits that RISC-V's open-source, modular nature offers a unique path to achieving all three. While RISC-V is already dominant in embedded systems, the focus is now shifting to data centers and AI workloads. China has become a global hotspot for RISC-V development, driven by AI-driven compute demand, supply chain concerns from export controls, cost benefits of open-source, and strong policy support. Multiple Chinese companies have reportedly crossed the key performance threshold of 15 SPECint per GHz, a benchmark for entering the high-performance CPU club. Progress extends beyond single-core benchmarks. Companies are developing complete computing subsystems, including commercial-grade coherent network-on-chip (NoC) technology and server processors with up to 40 cores that strictly adhere to the RVA23 standard to ensure software compatibility. Real-world applications are emerging in areas like video transcoding and edge AI. However, significant challenges remain. The RISC-V ecosystem faces fragmentation, immature toolchains and verification processes, and gaps in single-core performance and energy efficiency compared to mature x86 and Arm architectures. The formidable software moat, epitomized by NVIDIA's CUDA, is a long-term hurdle. In conclusion, while RISC-V cannot immediately replace offerings like NVIDIA's Vera, it represents a viable long-term path for China to develop a self-sufficient, high-performance CPU ecosystem. The journey is acknowledged to be long and arduous, requiring sustained effort to overcome technical and ecosystem challenges.

marsbitHá 4h

NVIDIA CPU Advances, China's RISC-V Responds: Semiconductor Deep Dive - Part Four

marsbitHá 4h

My Coding Betting Dashboard is Profiting, but Polymarket is Truly Not a Good Place for 'Arbitrage'

The author built a custom monitoring dashboard for Polymarket, a prediction market platform, and tested it with $1,600, achieving over 30% returns. However, the core argument is that Polymarket is not a good venue for traditional arbitrage. The dashboard has two main sections: a "Portfolio Dashboard" for tracking active positions with key metrics like total capital, P&L, and a risk-control module using a tier system (T1, T2, T3), and an "Opportunity Watchlist" for monitoring markets. The article details a critical structural trap in binary markets: a bet with a high perceived probability of success still carries a 100% loss risk if wrong. The author's T1/T2/T3 system is designed to manage this by limiting position sizes based on conviction and time horizon, emphasizing that high confidence should not equal high concentration. A key insight is the danger of "pseudo-diversification"—betting on different markets driven by the same underlying variable. The author concludes that Polymarket offers few true low-risk, arbitrage opportunities. It is instead a high-risk environment where wins can create a false sense of mastery, leading to large losses. The platform is better viewed as a training ground for honing judgment through disciplined, framework-driven betting rather than a reliable income source. The tools help transform intuition into structured, rule-based decisions to mitigate the risk of catastrophic errors.

marsbitHá 8h

My Coding Betting Dashboard is Profiting, but Polymarket is Truly Not a Good Place for 'Arbitrage'

marsbitHá 8h

WeChat AI Card Hands-On Guide: Has the AI Shopping Era Arrived?

**"WeChat AI Card" Practical Test Guide: Has the Era of AI Shopping Arrived?** WeChat has officially launched the "AI Exclusive Card," a feature integrated into its Workbuddy AI assistant. This card is designed to handle payments for AI-initiated purchases. Our hands-on test reveals it's not yet a tool for fully autonomous AI shopping, but rather a controlled payment layer for AI agents. The AI Card functions as an isolated sub-wallet within WeChat Pay. Users must bind the card and transfer funds into it from their main wallet. Crucially, every transaction requires explicit user confirmation via smartphone scan; AI cannot spend autonomously. Currently accessible through the Workbuddy agent, the card targets specific digital consumption scenarios: purchasing paid content (reports, data), calling paid APIs/tools, and subscribing to services. Its design prioritizes security and control by separating funds and mandating approval for each payment. We tested a real-world scenario: ordering bubble tea via Workbuddy using a "Meituan Life Assistant" skill. The process encountered multiple hurdles: high "skill" usage costs (exceeding daily free credits), and most importantly, while a payment was successfully initiated, the AI purchased an incorrect product (a mismatched group-buy coupon instead of the desired drink). This highlights the current limitation: the **AI Card only solves the payment step**. The broader challenge lies in the **AI agent's execution chain**—accurately understanding intent, navigating third-party platforms, selecting the right product, and ensuring proper fulfillment. The payment succeeded, but the purchase failed to meet the user's need. In conclusion, the WeChat AI Exclusive Card is a cautious, early-step experiment in AI commerce. It provides a secure, user-controlled payment method for agent interactions but is not yet capable of reliable, end-to-end complex purchases. For now, it's best used for low-value, low-risk digital services with careful user verification at each step. The vision of AI handling complete shopping tasks remains a work in progress.

marsbitHá 10h

WeChat AI Card Hands-On Guide: Has the AI Shopping Era Arrived?

marsbitHá 10h

Trading

Spot
Futuros
活动图片