[Key interpretation] $744million eth flowed out of the exchange, significantly indicating an upward signal

Huobi ResearchPublicado em 2022-07-08Última atualização em 2022-07-11

Resumo

BTC and eth showed strong performance and wanted to confirm the reverse pattern.

1、 BTC further confirms the double bottom

In the daily K-line chart of BTC, after the price increase of BTC expanded below $22500, the authenticity of the double bottom pattern was further verified. From the perspective of volume and price performance, the rising process of BTC is relatively conservative and does not continue to pull up strongly. The trading volume is always near the login line, which means that there is no signal of continuous and significant improvement in investor participation. Nevertheless, the value of BTC is expected to strengthen. Considering that the support of $17245 corresponding to 78.6% Fibonacci is effective, from the perspective of range fluctuation, BTC is far from releasing $28307 corresponding to 61.8% Fibonacci, and there is room for further rise.

2. BTC leverage increase

With the increase of BTC price rebound space and growth participation, one of its manifestations is the upward leverage. From the figure, the trading leverage ratio of BTC has rebounded to around 0.3318, which has significantly exceeded the peak leverage ratio in May and June. After the leverage ratio picks up, BTC volatility is expected to further strengthen. The price of BTC is expected to reach around $25000 within the week. Increased leverage will also increase volatility opportunities. In the near future, investors can still hold money and wait for the market to pick up.

3. Strong data performance on BTC chain

BTC's trading volume on the chain has continued to rise in the near future. Even after BTC bid farewell to the strong earthquake in June, investors' trading heat on the chain remains unabated. The figure shows that the trading volume on the chain is maintained at more than 1.85 million within a day, with an average of more than 2.2 million. Compared with the dull period, the online trading volume is less than 600000. At present, the online trading volume has increased by more than 200%. The trading volume on the chain remains high, indicating that the cost of holding money for investors may have changed. In other words, the high trading volume on the chain indicates that the turnover rate is at a high level, and the bottom confirmation process of BTC continues. Short term price rebound requires vigilance against possible price shocks.

4. Double bottom shape verification of eth recovery

In the daily K-line chart of eth, after the bottom of the price rises, the double bottom reversal of the rebound is being confirmed. Although the trading volume contracted, the price trend of eth was still strong, reaching the pressure level below $1300. At present, the price has not effectively exceeded $1300. Below this point, the support effect is further verified during the period of price shock. Fibonacci 78.6% of the corresponding $1106 support is still effective, low absorption can refer to this point to buy eth.

5. Eth selling pressure is significantly low

Recently, the number of eth inflows into exchanges has continued to grow, but the data on July 7 showed a reversal signal. The number of eth in the exchange quickly retreated from 0.212 to around 0.207. Judging from the trend of the index, it has almost become the largest change in the value of the year. Based on this judgment, the short-term price rebound of eth has been recognized by investors. The decline in the proportion of eth in the number of exchanges indicates that the selling pressure has decreased significantly, which means that the possibility of eth price rise has increased. At present, volume and price support eth to further rise. In absolute terms, the number of eth in the exchange fell from 25.22 million to 24.6 million in July, a decrease of 620000 eth, worth 744million US dollars. In other words, as much as $744million of eth flowed out of the exchange, and the selling pressure was reduced accordingly.

Leituras Relacionadas

The Value Distribution of Stablecoins

**Summary: The Value Distribution of Stablecoins** The article argues that stablecoins are evolving from mere trading tools into broader channels for dollar access. It divides the stablecoin ecosystem into four layers to analyze how value is distributed: 1. **Issuance Layer:** Mints stablecoins, holds reserve assets, and captures the spread between reserve yield and user costs (e.g., Tether, Circle). This layer currently earns the largest profit margin. 2. **Infrastructure Layer:** Connects stablecoins to the traditional financial system, handling fiat on/off-ramps, banking integration, compliance (KYC/AML), and asset management (e.g., Bridge, BVNK). This is the "unglamorous" but critical work, building the essential bridges between crypto and real-world finance. 3. **Acquiring/Distribution Layer:** Integrates stablecoins into merchant systems, manages payment flows, and provides enterprise financial software (e.g., Stripe, Coinbase). They act as the access point for businesses. 4. **Application Layer:** The end-users and businesses that ultimately use stablecoins for payments, settlements, or as a store of value. They benefit from convenience but have little pricing power. The core thesis is that while the issuance layer currently dominates profits, the often-overlooked **infrastructure layer holds significant long-term potential**. The real challenge and barrier to mass adoption is not the on-chain transfer of stablecoins (which is simple), but the complex "last mile" integration into existing business workflows, banking systems, and regulatory frameworks across different countries. Companies in this layer are currently in a "land grab" phase, investing heavily to build networks, secure bank partnerships, and establish compliance pathways. While their position is currently pressured by the profitable issuers above and distribution platforms below, the article suggests that if stablecoins become a default financial rail for businesses, the infrastructure providers who have done the hard work of integration will ultimately gain strong pricing power and become entrenched, essential players.

marsbitHá 19m

The Value Distribution of Stablecoins

marsbitHá 19m

The Value Distribution of Stablecoins

The Value Distribution of Stablecoins The article argues that stablecoins are evolving from a mere trading tool into a broad "dollar channel." It analyzes the industry's value chain through four layers: 1. **Issuance Layer (e.g., Tether, Circle):** The top layer that mints stablecoins, holds reserve assets, and captures the thickest interest rate spread. 2. **Infrastructure Layer (e.g., Bridge, BVNK):** Connects stablecoins to the traditional financial system, handling critical but complex "dirty work" like fiat on/off-ramps, banking integration, compliance (KYC/AML), and cross-border settlement. 3. **Acquiring/Distribution Layer (e.g., Stripe, Coinbase):** Embeds stablecoins into merchant systems, manages payment flows, and integrates with enterprise software. 4. **Application Layer:** End-users and businesses that ultimately use stablecoins for payments, settlement, or storing value. The author posits that while the issuance layer currently captures the most profit, the most overlooked and potentially critical layer is infrastructure. The core challenge for stablecoin adoption isn't the on-chain transfer (which is simple), but bridging the gap between blockchain and the real-world financial system. This involves solving practical problems for businesses: fiat conversion, reconciliation, tax handling, and user onboarding. Infrastructure companies are currently in a difficult "land-grab" phase—building networks, securing banking relationships, and achieving compliance country-by-country. They face pressure from both the profitable issuance layer above and distribution platforms below. However, the author suggests this layer is building a crucial moat. Once stablecoins become a default business rail, the infrastructure players who have done the hard work of integration may gain significant, durable value and pricing power.

链捕手Há 23m

The Value Distribution of Stablecoins

链捕手Há 23m

Why Is Nvidia Borrowing $20 Billion When It's Not Short of Cash?

Nvidia's recent announcement to issue at least $20 billion in senior notes, despite holding a strong cash position with over $48.6 billion in free cash flow last quarter, is not a sign of financial need. Instead, it represents a strategic move to leverage its high credit rating (recently upgraded to AA by S&P) to secure low-cost, long-term debt. This capital will support long-term AI infrastructure investments, data centers, R&D, supply chain prepayments, and strategic investments, while allowing the company to continue aggressive shareholder returns through stock buybacks and dividends. The decision reflects a mature capital management strategy: using debt to finance long-term growth assets is more efficient and less dilutive to shareholders than equity financing. It signals that Nvidia, like other tech giants (Alphabet, Meta, Amazon), is entering a new phase of heavy AI capital expenditure, shifting from a pure growth story to a story about capital allocation, credit strength, and long-term ecosystem positioning. The key question for investors is whether Nvidia can maintain its high cash flow generation and ensure that returns from these AI investments justify the cost of capital over the long term. The bond issuance amplifies its expansion capabilities but also ties its valuation more closely to the broader AI investment cycle's sustainability and profitability.

marsbitHá 58m

Why Is Nvidia Borrowing $20 Billion When It's Not Short of Cash?

marsbitHá 58m

Liberland Fires Tech Secretary After Alleged Blockchain And Website Takeover Attempt

Liberland's congress has voted to remove Technology Secretary Dorian Stern Vukotić, following a resolution accusing him of attempting to hijack the Liberland.org domain, removing administrative multisig protections, blocking the president from voting, and launching unauthorized tokens. The incident serves as a case study in blockchain governance, highlighting risks that go beyond smart contracts to include control over domains, admin keys, and off-chain authority. For the crypto industry, it underscores the need to scrutinize decentralization claims against operational realities, where a small group can still compromise governance. The story reflects a broader market shift where infrastructure security and governance are becoming as critical as price action. Editorial framing should treat the development as a verified information signal about governance risks, avoiding overstatement of Liberland's legal status and leaving room for follow-up evidence.

bitcoinistHá 1h

Liberland Fires Tech Secretary After Alleged Blockchain And Website Takeover Attempt

bitcoinistHá 1h

How to Do Research Well: Deliberately Practice the Real Skills That Matter

No one truly teaches you how to do research. You're often given a desk, a pre-selected problem, and vague instructions to "create something new." Consequently, many people reverse-engineer the job based on visible outputs—papers, posts, announcements—learning only how to *appear* like a researcher rather than how to *become* one. True research capability is built from stacking small, trainable skills, nearly all of which can be developed through deliberate practice. **Pick Your Own Problem:** Most researchers absorb problems from advisors or trends, lacking the underlying reasoning. Choosing a problem you genuinely care about, as John Schulman advises, leads to original work. Develop "taste" like a muscle: predict experiment outcomes, guess paper results from methods, and track which findings remain important over time. **Upgrade Your Inputs:** Relying on shared reading lists (arXiv hot lists, filtered group chats) leads to unoriginal conclusions. Undervalued old literature often holds crucial insights (e.g., MoE, LSTM, backpropagation). Richard Sutton's "The Bitter Lesson" or Claude Shannon's 1952 talk on creative thinking are more predictive than lengthy modern surveys. Breadth matters as much as depth: draw from neuroscience, mechanism design, hardware knowledge, and honest statistics. Read papers directly, especially appendices and limitations sections. **Write Everything Down:** As Paul Graham noted, writing exposes flaws in seemingly mature ideas. Writing is the cheapest defense against self-deception. Following Feynman's principle, Darwin programmatically wrote down facts contradicting his theory to combat memory bias. Maintain a detailed log of hypotheses, setups, predictions, results, and updated understandings. Reviewing past logs fosters essential humility.

marsbitHá 2h

How to Do Research Well: Deliberately Practice the Real Skills That Matter

marsbitHá 2h

Trading

Spot
Futuros
活动图片

Categorias popularesright-arrow

Etiquetas Popularesright-arrow