«День освобождения» Трампа: Polymarket о рецессии в США

cryptonews.ruPublicado em 2024-09-03Última atualização em 2025-04-03

Polymarket оценивает вероятность рецессии в США в этом году почти в 50%. Это связано с тем, что тарифы, введенные в «День освобождения» Трампа, оказались выше ожидаемых. Крипторынок и традиционные рынки падают, а будущее остается неопределенным

Даже если Трамп решит смягчить тарифы, ущерб репутации США уже нанесен. Торговые партнеры ищут альтернативы без участия США, а в расчетах тарифов было много ошибок.

Polymarket прогнозирует рецессию

Polymarket — это онлайн-платформа для прогнозирования, где пользователи делают ставки на различные события. В прошлом году она привлекла внимание, когда ее пользователи точно предсказали исход президентских выборов.

Сейчас на платформе отражаются рыночные страхи: вероятность рецессии в США на Polymarket приблизилась к 50%.

Читайте также: Прогноз биткоина на 2025 год — мнения экспертов

Вероятность рецессии по данным Polymarket. Источник: Polymarket

Рынки уже испытывали давление из-за медвежьих настроений и страха перед рецессией, но одно событие усугубило ситуацию. Вчера, второго апреля, состоялся так называемый День освобождения президента Трампа, когда он объявил о введении тарифов против всех стран мира. Этот план предусматривает минимальный тариф в 10% даже для союзников и торговых партнеров, что превысило самые пессимистичные прогнозы.

Кроме того, ошибки в формулировках тарифов усилили неопределенность. Например, в указе утверждается, что необитаемые острова вводили тарифы против США, а один пользователь соцсетей обнаружил, что расчеты скопированы из таблицы в Wikipedia.

Реакция рынка

Крипторынок заранее ожидал этих пошлин, и некоторые потери уже были учтены в цене на утренних торгах. Однако, хотя отрасль готовилась к трудностям, она не ожидала таких высоких тарифов. Вероятность рецессии на Polymarket резко растет, а цена биткоина обрушилась.

Динамика цены биткоина (BTC). Источник: CoinGecko

Даже если пошлины будут отменены, прогнозы Polymarket о возможной рецессии могут оправдаться. Угроза тарифов уже оказывает влияние на мировую торговлю.

Например, давние соперники — Китай, Япония и Южная Корея — договорились о совместных действиях в ответ на эти пошлины. Если мировой рынок начнет считать США ненадежным партнером, он может переключиться на новые торговые схемы.

Подробнее о том, как крипторынок отреагировал на «День освобождения» США, читайте в нашем специальном обзоре.

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