SignalPlus宏观分析(20240410)：通胀仍将稳步发展

Odaily星球日报Publicado em 2024-04-10Última atualização em 2024-04-10

Resumo

昨天市场忙于在CPI公布前调整头寸，Bloomberg报导了纽约开盘时创下纪录的SOFR期货大宗交易，随后价格上涨/收益率下跌。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240410)：通胀仍将稳步发展

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240410)：通胀仍将稳步发展

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240410)：通胀仍将稳步发展

昨天市场忙于在 CPI 公布前调整头寸，Bloomberg 报导了纽约开盘时创下纪录的 SOFR 期货大宗交易，随后价格上涨/收益率下跌，表明该交易属于买盘资金，同时 2 年期美债收益率在关键的 4.75-4.80% 持稳，尚未进一步突破。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240410)：通胀仍将稳步发展

同一时刻，白宫经济顾问 Brainard 在接受 CNBC 采访时表示，政府仍“预期未来几个月通胀将继续稳步进展”，有些人认为她已经提前知道了数据结果，因此交易员将此解读为即将发布的通胀数据可能接近市场预期，或者只是稍微偏高一些。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240410)：通胀仍将稳步发展

同时，大型资产管理公司 State Street 预测最早将在 6 月降息 50 个基点，目前市场预测 6 月降息的可能性仍接近 50-50 ，State Street 的预测显得较为激进，且与 Apollo 认为美联储今年甚至不会降息的看法形成鲜明对比，可以说，当前市场对美联储的观点存在相当大的分歧。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240410)：通胀仍将稳步发展

股市大起大落，SPX 指数从高点到低点急遽下跌超过 1% ，引发交易员们议论是否有人已经提前获悉今天的 CPI 数据结果，后续价格缓慢地回升，并在收盘时加速上涨，SPX 再次守住 200 日移动均线，而交易员也已经调整好头寸以迎接通胀数据的发布。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240410)：通胀仍将稳步发展

许多资产类别的价格目前都处于重要技术水平附近，SPX 指数徘徊并守住 200 日均线， 2 年期收益率持稳在今年高点 4.80 ％ 左右，而随著日本央行近期重申鹰派评论（UEDA：希望最终削减日本国债持有量），美元兑日元也保持在 152 左右的两年高点附近。虽然我们对 CPI 数据没有特别的看法，但我们认为交易员目前应该都已经充分对冲，且众多资产类别同时突破重要技术水平的情况很少见，因此我们比较倾向认为数据结果将足够接近市场预测，使得资产得以维持当前趋势。让我们看看 12 小时后的市场情况，祝各位好运！

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240410)：通胀仍将稳步发展

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240410)：通胀仍将稳步发展

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：xdengalin）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。

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