SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130)：美国经济数据强劲，SPX持续看涨

Odaily星球日报Publicado em 2024-01-30Última atualização em 2024-01-30

Resumo

昨天的经济数据相对平静，最重要的可能是美国财政部再融资公告，简而言之，财政部将第一季度的融资规模预估下调了6.9%至7,600亿美元，低于市场预期，帮助美债小幅反弹。在加密货币领域，就在GBTC的资金流出终于显示出一些放缓迹象之际，Blackrock的IBIT在交易量方面正一步步赶上GBTC，现货价格也相应反弹，BTC重回4.35万美元以上。

想要现货屯囤 BTC ，强烈推荐继续卖看跌期权：卖 3 月底 38000 的看跌期权：权利金 2.65% 。1 个 BTC 的头寸是 1136 刀权利金的收入，行权就按照 36864 一个买 BTC；不行权，年化收入 16% 。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130)：美国经济数据强劲，SPX持续看涨

BTC 的年底的期货升水（溢价) 是 9.2% ，也就是当下币圈无风险的基差套利年化 10% 。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130)：美国经济数据强劲，SPX持续看涨

上周币圈资金净流出了 5 亿美金。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130)：美国经济数据强劲，SPX持续看涨

昨天的经济数据相对平静，最重要的可能是美国财政部再融资公告，简而言之，财政部将第一季度的融资规模预估下调了 6.9% 至 7, 600 亿美元，低于市场预期，帮助美债小幅反弹，收益率曲线整体下滑约 5-6 个基点，SPX 指数突破至新高。

财政部的借款需求降低是由于预计财政资金增加，以及新年伊始现金水位比预期来得高。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130)：美国经济数据强劲，SPX持续看涨

尽管年初以来降息预期有所调整，股市仍持续上涨，不过股票/债券相关性持续下降。强劲的经济数据加上全球央行的鸽派立场（降息只是时间问题）仍在推动风险情绪上升，期权市场已经反映了风险情绪的升温，过去两周 SPX 看涨期权偏斜程度大幅加剧，甚至小型股看起来也即将突破长达 2 年的盘整，上升中的牛市往往是最难交易的。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130)：美国经济数据强劲，SPX持续看涨

在加密货币领域，就在 GBTC 的资金流出终于显示出一些放缓迹象之际，Blackrock 的 IBIT 在交易量方面正一步步赶上 GBTC，现货价格也相应反弹，BTC 重回 4.35 万美元以上。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130)：美国经济数据强劲，SPX持续看涨

在费用方面，价格战仍在持续，Invesco/Galaxy 同意将 ETF 费用从 39 个基点下调至 25 个基点，与其他机构保持一致，远低于 Greyscale 1.5% 的费用。TradFi 进入加密货币领域意味著更低的费用、更低的点差，以及最终更低的 Alpha（竞争加剧）…希望机会之窗不会太快关闭。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130)：美国经济数据强劲，SPX持续看涨

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