Striving for the Impossible: Reasonable Crypto Debate

CoinDeskPublicado em 2023-05-29Última atualização em 2023-05-29

Resumo

Crypto in the U.S. is more polarized and politicized than ever.

Crypto in the U.S. is more polarized and politicized than ever.

Ironically, that’s a sign that the issues around this technology have become less of a fringe concern for ordinary Americans. With Florida governor Ron DeSantis signaling his fidelity to Bitcoin in his presidential candidacy launch and President Biden accusing Republicans of protecting “crypto traders'' during debt ceiling negotiations, crypto is garnering attention and, for that, is rewarded with the same divisive treatment as other mainstream topics. What should be a detached, technical discussion on the pros and cons of policy options is now laden with emotion and exaggeration, the upshot being that real public understanding of the technology’s promise and perils seems even less attainable.

You’re reading Money Reimagined, a weekly look at the technological, economic and social events and trends that are redefining our relationship with money and transforming the global financial system. Subscribe to get the full newsletter here.

As we know from the wider political arena, social media is a major contributor to this problem. Provocateurs from both the right and the left peddle fear-mongering exaggerations about their opponents and simplistic bromide solutions. It’s a proven way to build the real currency of power of our time: online attention.

The result is a society that’s incapable, not only of compromise, but of even allowing space for an informed examination of the facts. It’s not that discussion is consumed by outright lies and disinformation – though there’s plenty of that – it’s that every debate seems unable to progress beyond a superficial state. A complex reality cannot be encapsulated in 140 characters. Yet it’s in the complexity where we’ll find truth.

This is the broader context in which the crypto discussion seems trapped right now. People either love or hate crypto, with strong but often ill-informed opinions. There seems to be less willingness on either side to understand the other’s position and little search for compromise.

If you’re reading this column, you’re likely a crypto believer. So, you might be inclined to point blame at politicians like Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass) and at regulators like Securities and Exchange Commission Gary Gensler, whose uncompromising stances have played into an increasingly hostile posture to the technology from progressive Democrats. That’s understandable. (I’m guilty of the same instinct.) But simply doing so does not help. It takes two sides to create a toxic discourse.

The industry needs to figure out how to converse with its detractors. Less Twitter, maybe, more real-world interactions.

Politicization

In this environment, it takes good reporting like that of my colleagues Nikhilesh De, Cheyenne Ligon and Doreen Wang in a piece entitled “The Bitcoin Mining Debate Is Ignoring the People Most Affected,” to identify where both sides in the crypto debate need to cede ground.

The trio visited Dresden, NY, home of Greenidge Generation’s bitcoin mining operation, which has become a lightning rod in the wider debate over Bitcoin’s environmental impact and, in particular, the political battles over New York State’s move last year to impose a ban on new mining projects. They found that both sides have made wildly exaggerated claims about the harm or benefits of Greenidge’s operation. New York Assemblywoman Anna Kelles, a Democrat, has repeatedly made the false claim that the facility is heating nearby Seneca Lake and killing aquatic life. At the same time, many mining advocates dramatically overstate community benefits such as the number of jobs created.

Most strikingly, the piece cited Dresden’s mayor, William Hall, saying that before CoinDesk’s visit, he had never been contacted by a reporter, lobbyist or politician about Greenidge, whether they’re from the Bitcoin advocacy community or from critics who claim it’s harming the local environment.

The idea that an entire town’s multifaceted experience with an industry can be overlooked while the competing factions in a wider national debate create alternative, fact-starved abstractions of that reality is a true sign that an issue has become politicized.

As procedural gridlock has left Congress unable to pass clarifying legislation for this industry and as emotions have been stirred up by the ignominious collapse of big–time political donor Sam Bankman Fried’s FTX exchange, the bipartisan spirit that once existed around crypto on Capitol Hill has, sadly, evaporated. While there are still many supporters on the left, criticism increasingly feels like a Democrat position, while advocacy is owned by Republicans. Little good can come of this division.

Don’t be a troll

As I mentioned, blame for this lies on both sides. So, as a thoughtful, well-intended member of the crypto community, what can you do to help?

Well, for one, take a look at the forthcoming Consensus @ Consensus report, which CoinDesk will publish next month. It will be the product of a deliberate effort to bring competing voices together during our Consensus event in Austin last month, to discuss and debate eleven core issues for the industry and try to find a way forward.

More generally, we can all take stock of how we behave on social media and elsewhere.

Some rules of thumb: Don’t be arrogant. Don’t be dismissive of your critics’ concerns. And, most of all, don’t be a troll.

Prime example of the latter: the spoof video that Riot Platforms released in response to a New York Times piece on bitcoin mining’s environmental impact, which fed into a Biden Administration proposal to tax the industry. The clip, which showed an official in safety gear walking Riot’s Texas facility with a CO2 emissions reader to declare that Bitcoin mining released no carbon emissions, was satire. It was a way-too-smug-for-its-own-good way of saying we shouldn’t be judging choices for energy use, but rather examining the carbon output at the source of that energy – in other words, put your attention on whether a region’s grid uses either renewables or fossil fuels, not on how its electricity is being used.

The joke went over people’s heads; critics saw the character as an archetype of the “bitcoin bro” stereotype who ignorantly believes a mining operation has zero carbon footprint. Billions of people have extremely valid, urgent concerns about climate change and Bitcoin’s massive energy consumption is by no means an irrelevant issue. Did the Riot team believe that, rather than riling up such people, this Borat-like exercise would enlighten them?

In Washington, too, advocates should try to avoid baiting industry critics. They should criticize and articulate firm views, but do so in a way that gives their opponents room to find compromise. A letter from crypto supporters House Majority Whip Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) and Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.) taking SEC Chairman Gensler to task for not approving applications for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds was seen by one Washington insider as being a “red rag to a bull.” Why stir up Elizabeth Warren’s “anti-crypto army?”

If you count yourself among the moderate majority that’s open to compromise, resist the temptation to support the extremists whose overly loud voices rise above the din to be heard on each side of a polarized, social media attention-seeking rabble. Even when they’re pushing out those on-point soundbites, don’t hit the “like” button.

In summary, don’t be a troll and don’t feed the trolls.

Leituras Relacionadas

STRC 跌破面值,比特币财库实验进入下半场

The price of STRC, Strategy's dividend-paying preferred stock, has fallen below its $100 face value, triggering a re-evaluation of the "bitcoin treasury" corporate model. This highlights a critical tension: the company's asset base consists of high-volatility, non-cash-flow-generating Bitcoin, while its capital structure requires continuous cash payouts for dividends and interest. The decline of STRC signals that market pressure is shifting from asset price volatility to the pricing of the company's financing tools. Strategy's core model involves a three-step conversion: turning equity into Bitcoin exposure, converting Bitcoin holdings into capital market credit, and packaging non-yielding BTC into cash-paying securities like STRC. While Strategy holds a massive 847,363 BTC, the focus is now on cash flow mismatches. The company faces annual preferred stock dividend obligations of approximately $1.7 billion, far exceeding the cash flow from its legacy software business. Its ability to meet these obligations relies on continued access to capital markets. The market is now scrutinizing which of three potential costs becomes untenable first: rising dividend costs to attract investors, dilution costs from issuing more common stock, or the reputational cost of selling BTC—a move contrary to its "hodl" narrative. For the broader crypto market, a constrained Strategy means the potential loss of a predictable, narrative-driven marginal buyer for Bitcoin. The STRC discount serves as a reminder that the longevity of such models depends not just on Bitcoin's price, but also on financing windows, cash reserves, and investor willingness to pay a "trust premium" for the structure.

marsbitHá 10m

STRC 跌破面值,比特币财库实验进入下半场

marsbitHá 10m

Standard Chartered Bank’s 50-Fold Fantasy: Predicting AAVE to Reach $3,500

Standard Chartered Bank has issued an optimistic research report predicting that the AAVE token could surge 50-fold to $3,500 by 2030. This forecast is based on the projection that the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi will grow 37x to approximately $2.7 trillion, driven by stablecoin expansion and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). The bank's model links Aave's potential valuation directly to its protocol revenue, which is primarily driven by net interest margins. The report highlights Aave's current dominant position, noting it captures over 80% of the net earnings ("protocol retained earnings") in the lending sector while holding only about half of its TVL. It also points to the recent launch of the Aave V4 architecture and a healthy revenue stream of $142 million in 2025 as positive fundamentals. Grayscale's separate analysis, applying traditional valuation metrics like DCF, concluded AAVE is currently undervalued. However, the article notes significant challenges. Aave's peer-to-pool lending model suffers from inherent capital inefficiency, with an estimated $52 million annual "deadweight loss" due to idle funds needed for liquidity buffers. This structural flaw was exposed during the April KelpDAO exploit, which locked a WETH pool at 100% utilization for days. Emerging protocols like Morpho, with more efficient point-to-point models, are cited as growing competitive threats. In summary, while institutional forecasts paint a macro picture of massive growth fueled by RWA adoption, Aave's path forward hinges on addressing its core structural limitations and competitive pressures within the evolving DeFi lending landscape.

链捕手Há 1h

Standard Chartered Bank’s 50-Fold Fantasy: Predicting AAVE to Reach $3,500

链捕手Há 1h

Tidal Investment: We Remain Bullish on the AI Industry Chain, But the Reasons Have Changed

Tidal Investment remains optimistic about the AI industry chain, but the rationale has shifted. The market narrative has changed. While recent large-scale IPOs (e.g., SpaceX) and major fundraising plans by tech giants like Alphabet and Meta have caused some nervousness, this isn't a sign of an AI peak. The focus has moved from the initial question of AI's viability to the sustainability of massive investment cycles. The key players—primarily the major cloud providers—are not slowing down; their capital expenditure (Capex) guidance for 2026 has been increased across the board (e.g., Alphabet to $180B, Amazon to $200B). This investment cycle is proving resilient and difficult to stop. Unlike traditional hardware cycles, current AI Capex is distributed across multiple physical layers—computing, memory, networking, and critically, power infrastructure. Bottlenecks are shifting from chips to elements like electricity, transformers, and cooling systems, which have much longer lead times and cannot be easily pre-built like fiber optics during the dot-com bubble. Supply chain data (e.g., Eaton's 240% YoY data center orders) confirms this broad-based, project-driven expansion. Market concerns are acknowledged but viewed differently. First, while Capex growth currently outpaces revenue growth, raising ROI questions, this mirrors the early scaling phase of cloud computing itself. A change in view would require concrete signals like downward Capex revisions or missed AI product targets, which haven't materialized by mid-2026. Second, comparisons to the 2000 dot-com bust are flawed. That crash was driven by a massive, parallel oversupply of cheap capacity (fiber). The current cycle faces *supply constraints* in critical, capital-intensive physical infrastructure that cannot be overbuilt as easily. In conclusion, the wave of fundraising reflects the next, more complex act of the AI story. Physical bottlenecks and sustained high Capex plans suggest this is not the finale but an ongoing, capital-intensive build-out phase. The script has changed, but the play is far from over.

marsbitHá 2h

Tidal Investment: We Remain Bullish on the AI Industry Chain, But the Reasons Have Changed

marsbitHá 2h

Tidal Investment: We Remain Bullish on the AI Industry Chain, But for Different Reasons Now

Tidal Investments remains optimistic about the AI industry chain, but the rationale has shifted. The market is concerned about massive concurrent fundraising by tech giants like SpaceX, OpenAI, Alphabet, and Meta, fearing an AI peak. However, the authors argue this signals the next act of AI development, not its end. Capital expenditure (Capex) from major cloud providers (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle) continues to surge aggressively into 2026. This investment cycle is more resilient than past hardware cycles due to its scale and complexity. Bottlenecks have shifted from chips to critical physical infrastructure like power grids, transformers, cooling, and data center construction—areas with long lead times and limited capacity for rapid expansion. Supply chain data (e.g., Eaton's orders) confirms substantial, tangible progress. Key market concerns are addressed: 1. **ROI vs. Capex Growth**: While Capex growth outpaces revenue, the authors note cloud giants have historically overcome similar phases through scale. The cycle will only be in danger if Capex guidance is cut, orders are canceled, or AI product demand falters—none of which are currently observed. 2. **Comparison to the 2000 Dot-com Bubble**: Unlike the telecom bubble, where cheap, oversupplied fiber crashed prices, AI infrastructure (especially power) is constrained, customized, and subject to lengthy approvals, making a similar supply glut and crash unlikely. In conclusion, the wave of fundraising reflects the immense, ongoing capital needs for AI's next phase, constrained by slow-moving physical bottlenecks. The AI cycle is not over; the script has simply changed.

链捕手Há 2h

Tidal Investment: We Remain Bullish on the AI Industry Chain, But for Different Reasons Now

链捕手Há 2h

Grayscale: These 15 Profitable Crypto Protocols Are Severely Undervalued

Grayscale Research identifies 15 top-revenue crypto protocols trading at significant valuation discounts, with many at single-digit or even 1x revenue multiples. Protocols like Pump.fun, PancakeSwap, and Meteora have market capitalizations roughly equal to their annual revenue. The report argues these financially-focused protocols (DEXs, lending, staking) are fundamentally undervalued and could benefit from the potential passage of the CLARITY Act, expected as soon as next month. This legislation aims to clarify digital asset regulation, potentially reducing institutional barriers and driving on-chain activity. The analysis breaks down the protocols into three groups: the "1x Club" (market cap ≈ revenue), mid-tier protocols with 3-9x multiples (e.g., Aave, Lido, Jupiter), and high-multiple protocols like Hyperliquid (15x) and Uniswap (37x), where valuation reflects future potential rather than current cash flows. Grayscale applies a traditional DCF model to Aave, suggesting a one-year price target of ~$175, representing ~130% upside from current levels. The report notes a risk-off macro environment since the Iran conflict has further compressed valuations, creating a potential entry window. The conclusion highlights that while the valuation data presents an intriguing opportunity, the investment thesis is contingent on the CLARITY Act's passage and subsequent institutional capital flows. Investors are cautioned to consider Grayscale's inherent conflict of interest as a crypto asset manager with products tied to these assets.

marsbitHá 2h

Grayscale: These 15 Profitable Crypto Protocols Are Severely Undervalued

marsbitHá 2h

Trading

Spot
Futuros
活动图片