Kalshi remained the largest prediction platform in July. Monthly trading volume on the platform reached $37.7 billion, a 14% increase from the previous month.
Meanwhile, trading volume on the international platform Polymarket decreased by 26% to $7.9 billion, while the turnover of the US-based Polymarket US increased by 54% to $5 billion. As a result, the combined trading volume of the two platforms decreased from $14 billion in June to $12.9 billion in July.
Analysts at The Block linked the increase in activity to Kalshi's decision to open access to all users in the United States. In May, the company, whose activities are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), lifted registration restrictions, allowing American traders to legally participate in trading without the need to bypass regional blocks in individual states.
The Block identified the main factor for the growth in betting volume in July as the FIFA World Cup, which took place from June 11 to July 19. The Kalshi prediction market for the final match between Spain and Argentina attracted about $1.9 billion, while the volume of bets on the tournament winner on Polymarket reached approximately $4 billion.
The end of the championship led to a noticeable decline in activity. The aggregate open interest on Polymarket, Polymarket US, and Kalshi decreased from about $2 billion in early July to $1.2 billion by the end of the month, writes The Block.
Earlier, Chainalysis experts estimated the combined trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi for contracts related to the FIFA World Cup at $20 billion. According to their data, bets on tournament matches accounted for about 63% of all activity on prediction platforms during the qualifying matches and the championship itself.
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