The cut-throat competition in the perpetual decentralized exchanges, popularly known as Perp DEXes, has stalled the market leader, Hyperliquid.
Rivals such as Binance-backed Aster saw significant traction in H2 2025. But most analysts considered Lighter the real threat to Hyperliquid, citing several features, including privacy.
However, ahead of the Lighter [LIT] token debut and airdrop for early users, Messari research analyst Sam has downplayed its threat.
In fact, Sam projected that HYPE could outperform LIT in the mid-term, adding that,
“HYPE will reprice back to the ‘endgame perp DEX.’ HYPE investors won’t have to worry about fee compression for the foreseeable future.”
For Sam, Lighter’s perp volume was ‘falling off a cliff’ because the initial farming period that attracted most traders from Hyperliquid is almost over.
Will Hyperliquid revenue recover?
In H2, Hyperliquid’s perpetual volume dropped significantly amid rising competition and lower trading activity in Q4 2025. It fell from $396 billion to $165 billion — That’s about 60% decline in traction.
The cool-off also compressed the generated fees and revenues used to drive HYPE buybacks.
In fact, average weekly revenue dropped from $20 million in Q3 to as low as $7 million in late December -A whopping 65% revenue shortfall.
With ongoing monthly unlocks alongside the low pace of token buybacks, bears had a field day with HYPE. However, Sam believes a reversal could be likely if Lighter farmers return to Hyperliquid.
HYPE vs. LIT price action
Meanwhile, Lighter officially announced the LIT token, noting that 25% of the total supply of 1 billion tokens will be immediately airdropped to early users.
The rest of the tokenomics mirrored HYPE, including a 1-year vesting period for teams and utilizing revenue for buybacks.
“Revenues from our core DEX product will be allocated between growth and buybacks depending on market conditions.”
The token’s TGE listing price was $3.3, but it has dropped to $2.7, representing a 21% decline in the past seven days of trading. It experienced a 16% decline over the past 24 hours.
On the other hand, HYPE was up over 2% in the 24 hours and could flip short-term bullish if it clears the recent peak at $26.4. The next roadblock and overheat resistance would be $27.
Final Thoughts
- Lighter perp volume has dropped following the end of airdrop farming, and the LIT price also declined.
- HYPE experienced a short-term bounce, but it was unclear whether the recovery would extend.
