Indepth Research

Provide in-depth research reports and independent analysis, leveraging data, technology, and economic insights to deliver a comprehensive examination of the blockchain ecosystem, project potential, and market trends.

IOSG Founder: Web3 Is 'Losing Blood,' How Can Practitioners Survive Better?

IOSG Founder: Web3 Is "Bleeding Out" – How Can Practitioners Survive Better? In a candid reflection, the founder of IOSG Ventures voices deep concerns about the current state of Web3, describing an ecosystem experiencing severe "blood loss." Despite the recent MuShanghai event showcasing a successful pivot towards a more diverse, global community, a somber reality persists: many crypto-native attendees were there exploring exits or new labels in biotech, AI, and robotics. The core issue is identified as a breakdown in the ecosystem's positive feedback loop. Alarmingly, underestimated "low-probability bad events" are occurring simultaneously: a significant brain drain of Chinese developers to AI, a lack of breakout applications despite massive funding, and a widening credibility gap for practitioners globally, often stigmatized as scam artists. This has created a dire接班人 (successor) problem, with the next generation seeing little professional prestige or financial upside in crypto compared to fields like AI. A significant portion of the critique focuses on Ethereum and Vitalik Buterin. While not pessimistic about Ethereum's technology, the founder worries that critical development windows were missed by focusing on niche technical narratives like ZK and L2 instead of mass-market applications. A more urgent concern is that Vitalik may be isolated in an "information bubble," shielded from the grassroots community's hardships by layers of intermediaries, preventing crucial feedback from reaching him. The call is for Vitalik to return to a founder's mindset, re-engage directly with the community, and rally efforts for the next decade. The divergence between U.S. and Chinese OG (Original Gangster) ecosystems is stark. While many U.S. builders reinvest their wealth into the ecosystem, the Chinese scene suffers from a severe lack of "造血能力" (blood-making ability), with most market-driven funds struggling and many early success stories cashing out entirely. This threatens the entire Asian Web3 ecosystem's survival. For individual practitioners, survival advice is pragmatic: find your core "why," maintain life balance beyond token prices, continuously learn new skills (like AI), form small, trusted alliances for mutual support, and practice self-compassion. The industry's greatest need is not money or tech, but lighthouses—individuals at all levels who offer mentorship, grants, referrals, and honest reflection to guide others. The piece concludes with a direct appeal: OGs must pay forward the opportunities the industry gave them; founders must not struggle alone; and builders must continue their work, ensuring it remains a viable profession. The survival of Web3's "cathedral" depends not on any single leader but on the collective responsibility of everyone who remains.

marsbit05/23 03:06

IOSG Founder: Web3 Is 'Losing Blood,' How Can Practitioners Survive Better?

marsbit05/23 03:06

Deficits, Inflation, and the New Fed: The Deep Logic Behind US Bond Yields Breaking 5% and the Market Reset

In the week of May 15-19, 2026, U.S. long-term Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs, with the 30-year yield hitting 5.2%, a level unseen since 2007, and the 10-year yield climbing to 4.687%. Equity markets declined in response. Four primary factors are driving the rise in yields. First, stubborn inflation persists, with April wholesale prices rising 6% year-over-year, fueling expectations of potential future Fed rate hikes instead of cuts. Second, newly confirmed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh inherits a complex inflation battle, with markets closely awaiting his first FOMC meeting. Third, deteriorating U.S. fiscal health, marked by large deficits and rising debt servicing costs, is eroding the traditional "safe-haven" premium for Treasuries. Fourth, the "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax cuts are projected to add trillions to the national debt, contributing to Moody's recent credit rating downgrade. Rising yields pressure stocks through several channels: a higher discount rate reduces the present value of future earnings (especially for growth stocks); rising risk-free rates compress equity risk premiums, making bonds relatively more attractive; higher borrowing costs impact consumers and corporations; and a stronger dollar affects multinational earnings. For investors, the environment favors value and financial stocks over long-duration growth stocks. Bond investors find attractive yields in short to intermediate maturities, while income investors see the best fixed-income opportunities in over a decade. Key developments to watch include Chair Warsh's first FOMC meeting, upcoming inflation data, Treasury auction demand, and whether the 30-year yield approaches 6%, a level that could trigger a more sustained equity valuation reset. The bond market's message is clear: the era of cheap government borrowing is over, posing a central challenge for markets in late 2026.

marsbit05/23 03:04

Deficits, Inflation, and the New Fed: The Deep Logic Behind US Bond Yields Breaking 5% and the Market Reset

marsbit05/23 03:04

A Comprehensive Analysis of On-Chain Pre-IPO: Why is the Pricing Power of SpaceX and OpenAI Moving On-Chain?

This podcast episode explores the rise of on-chain pre-IPO price discovery and trading, focusing on companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. Key trends include the recent launch of a SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual contract on Hyperliquid, the secondary market trading of AI company shares, and a new partnership between Nasdaq Private Market and Polymarket. Dio Casares explains why AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic actively deny the legitimacy of secondary trades. Primary reasons are to protect their primary funding rounds (as secondary trades don't provide cash to the company) and to avoid complex legal and administrative responsibilities associated with settling these transactions. He argues that on-chain **derivatives** (like perpetuals) are a more viable solution than **tokenized spot markets**, as they better navigate U.S. regulatory holding period requirements, provide effective hedging, and avoid antagonizing the companies themselves by competing with their primary raises. The discussion covers the risks and methods of gaining pre-IPO exposure, from direct investments and SPVs to riskier, layered structures that can lead to legal complications and settlement issues. Casares also maps the landscape of key players, differentiating between traditional secondary brokers (like Forge, Hiive, and Setter) and on-chain derivatives protocols (like Trade.xyz/Ventuals on Hyperliquid) and tokenization platforms (often on Solana). He positions Patagon as a facilitator for access to private market deals but clarifies it avoids on-chain tokenization to maintain good relations with portfolio companies. Looking ahead, the convergence of a historic IPO pipeline (with potential trillion-dollar valuations), the 24/7 nature of crypto markets, and the strategic use of pre-market perpetuals as a "loss leader" suggest continued growth and competition in the on-chain pre-IPO space.

marsbit05/22 10:19

A Comprehensive Analysis of On-Chain Pre-IPO: Why is the Pricing Power of SpaceX and OpenAI Moving On-Chain?

marsbit05/22 10:19

Blockchain Capital Partner: The Structure of On-Chain Two-Tier Capital Is Still in the Early Stages of Value Discovery

Spencer Bogart, a general partner at Blockchain Capital, argues that the on-chain economy possesses unique features like programmability, composability, and global distribution, fostering an open and fast-paced innovation ecosystem. However, these very features create challenges for large, fiduciarily-responsible institutional capital, which requires robust risk assessment frameworks often difficult in a permissionless and adversarial environment. The proposed solution is the emergence of a two-tiered capital structure. The first, permissionless layer remains the crucible for innovation, where protocols are built, tested, and hardened with real capital. The second, "institutional" layer consists of chains (L1s, L2s, etc.) that, while based on similar code, incorporate risk-management features like the ability to pause or freeze transactions in extreme scenarios, making them suitable for large-scale institutional deployment. The synergy between these layers is key. Protocols proven resilient in the open, permissionless environment can then scale to the institutional layer, accessing deeper capital pools. This creates a lifecycle: build and launch permissionlessly, test and prove robustness publicly, then expand to an institutional-grade chain for scaled adoption. This architecture allows the open, experimental side to continue driving innovation with crypto-native capital, while the institutional layer provides the liquidity, stability, and trust required for mainstream adoption. The major challenge identified is the "cold start" problem: aligning where institutional capital prefers to go with where the most proven applications and network effects currently reside. How this dynamic resolves—whether through protocol migration, new protocol builds, or institutional adaptation—will be crucial to watch. Overall, this evolving structure aims to combine the strengths of open innovation and institutional depth within a shared on-chain ecosystem.

链捕手05/22 06:13

Blockchain Capital Partner: The Structure of On-Chain Two-Tier Capital Is Still in the Early Stages of Value Discovery

链捕手05/22 06:13

21Shares Report: HYPE's P/S Ratio Only Half That of CME, Bull Market Target Price $70

21Shares Research Report: HYPE's P/S Ratio Half of CME's, Bullish Target $70 A recent report from 21Shares highlights Hyperliquid's evolution from a crypto derivatives DEX into a 24/7 "everything exchange" for perpetual contracts across various asset classes. The platform gained prominence during a February geopolitical incident when it provided real-time price discovery for WTI crude oil while traditional markets like CME were closed. Non-digital assets now account for approximately 35% of its volume, with traditional commodities and indices featuring among its top-traded assets. Hyperliquid's business model is rapidly diversifying, significantly reducing its dependence on crypto market cycles. Its cumulative trading volume and revenue are approaching levels comparable to CME Group's crypto derivatives segment. A key feature is its Assistance Fund, which directs 97%-99% of protocol fees to automated HYPE token buybacks, creating a deflationary mechanism with an implied buyback yield significantly higher than CME's traditional share repurchase program. Despite strong fundamentals, HYPE currently trades at a Price-to-Revenue (P/R) ratio of ~10x, roughly half of CME's ~17x. The report outlines valuation scenarios: a bullish case targets $62-$70 based on annualized revenue reaching $12-$15B and applying CME's P/R multiple. A bear case considers $15-$19 if growth slows. Key risks include platform centralization during crises, regulatory uncertainty for on-chain commodities, dependence on geopolitical volatility for non-crypto volume, and the need for sustained high trading volume to offset token unlocks. The analysis concludes that HYPE is increasingly being valued as a legitimate exchange business rather than a speculative crypto asset.

marsbit05/22 05:56

21Shares Report: HYPE's P/S Ratio Only Half That of CME, Bull Market Target Price $70

marsbit05/22 05:56

From Token Explosion to Physical Bottlenecks: The Storage Bull Market Driven by Agentic AI

**From Token Explosion to Physical Bottlenecks: The Agentic AI-Driven Storage Bull Market** The AI semiconductor narrative is shifting from training to inference, which now accounts for 66% of AI compute. In the inference "Decode" phase (autoregressive token generation), GPU performance is bottlenecked by memory bandwidth and capacity, not raw compute (FLOPS). The key constraints are **HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) bandwidth** (determining token generation speed) and **HBM capacity** (determining how many requests/models can be served simultaneously). This creates a core economics equation: Token cost is proportional to (GPU + power cost) divided by Tokens/sec, which is fundamentally limited by HBM specs. This drives unprecedented demand for advanced storage. **HBM**, a 3D-stacked DRAM, is critical for AI accelerators. Its complex production consumes 3-4x more wafer capacity than standard DRAM, squeezing supply for traditional memory (DDR) and causing severe shortages. **HBF (High Bandwidth Flash)**, an emerging high-bandwidth NAND, aims to bridge the gap between HBM speed and SSD capacity for AI model weights. The market is experiencing a historic, structurally driven super-cycle. Demand is fueled by a triple engine: 1) AI training (parameter arms race), 2) AI inference explosion (especially Agentic AI with long contexts), and 3) general data center expansion. Supply is constrained by the HBM产能挤压 effect and the 2-3 year lead time for new fab capacity. Analysts project a DRAM supply deficit of ~5% in 2026. Inventory across the supply chain is at historically low levels, with OEMs securing long-term agreements (LTAs) locking in future supply. Current indicators (Q2 2026) suggest the cycle is in its mid-phase, not peaking. While spot prices have corrected from highs, contract prices are forecast to rise sharply (e.g., +70-75% QoQ for NAND). Capacity utilization remains high, and inventory days are still low. The cycle is expected to peak around mid-2027. The storage landscape is stratified, with key players in HBM (SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron), NAND/SSD/HBF (Samsung, Kioxia/WD, SanDisk), and NOR Flash (Winbond, GigaDevice) well-positioned for this AI-driven era.

marsbit05/22 03:41

From Token Explosion to Physical Bottlenecks: The Storage Bull Market Driven by Agentic AI

marsbit05/22 03:41

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