Indepth ResearchNews

Provide in-depth research reports and independent analysis, leveraging data, technology, and economic insights to deliver a comprehensive examination of the blockchain ecosystem, project potential, and market trends.

Public Chains 2025: The Bustle Belongs to the Casino, the Desolation to the Ecosystem

The 2025 public blockchain landscape reveals a stark divide between hype and reality, with a severe concentration of value and widespread "zombification" of projects. Analysis of DeFiLlama's on-chain fee data exposes a critical structural issue: the crypto space is dominated by a "profit concentration and long-tail zombie" era. Notable examples highlight this crisis. Algorand, a chain with a $1 billion market cap and advanced technology, generated a mere $17 in daily fees, while Cardano, a top-10 asset, saw only around $6,000. These "classic chains" are likened to empty, expensive cities with no real economic activity. The biggest value capturers are not the most technologically elegant chains. Tron leads with $1.24 million in daily fees, succeeding as a low-cost payment rail for USDT transfers—crypto's only true mass-adoption use case. Solana ($600k daily) thrives as a high-frequency casino for meme coins and speculation, and Base ($105k daily) demonstrates that distribution (via Coinbase) is more critical than pure technology. The only validated business models generating significant fees are low-cost payments, high-frequency speculation, and, to a lesser extent, Ethereum's asset settlement layer. The VC-driven model is failing. New chains like Sui, Sei, and Starknet, which raised hundreds of millions, show a severe disconnect between their high valuations and meager daily fee revenue (ranging from $320 to $12,000). Their lifecycle often follows a "pump and dump" pattern: VC funding -> airdrop farming -> token listing -> user exodus -> collapsed on-chain activity. The industry suffers from a massive oversupply of block space with a dire lack of killer applications. The article concludes that investors must shift from valuing narratives to scrutinizing financials. They should avoid "zombie coins" with high valuations and negligible fees, focus on chains with organic, fee-generating demand, acknowledge that distribution and community are now more valuable than pure tech, and see through the VC subsidy game. This is a necessary market correction; only by paying for real, generated value—not promised future stories—can the industry achieve healthy growth.

比推12/18 06:36

Public Chains 2025: The Bustle Belongs to the Casino, the Desolation to the Ecosystem

比推12/18 06:36

Will Japan's Interest Rate Hike Trigger a Global Liquidity Shock?

As the Bank of Japan's December 19 monetary policy meeting approaches, market concerns are rising over a potential hawkish interest rate hike. A report by Western Securities on December 16 analyzes whether this move could end the era of cheap yen and trigger a global liquidity crisis. Key drivers for a rate hike include Japan’s sustained inflation above the 2% target, low unemployment supporting wage growth, and expansionary fiscal policy. These factors may push the BOJ toward tightening, raising fears of unwinding large-scale carry trades and causing global financial stress. However, the report suggests the most dangerous phase of liquidity shock may have already passed. Previous rate hikes in July and January had diminishing market impact, speculative short positions in yen have largely been closed, and the macro environment—including a resilient U.S. economy and Fed easing—reduces urgency for rapid unwinding. The Fed’s expanded balance sheet also acts as a buffer. Despite theoretical stability, global markets remain fragile after a six-year bull run, with elevated valuations and AI-related泡沫 concerns. A BOJ hike could act as a catalyst for a liquidity shock, though any sharp sell-off may prompt stronger Fed easing, leading to a quick recovery. Investors are advised to monitor the situation closely. If U.S. markets experience repeated “stock-bond-currency triple sell-offs,” it may signal a liquidity crisis. Over the medium term, global monetary easing is expected to continue, supporting gold and China assets—especially AH shares—on yuan appreciation and capital inflows. U.S. stocks and bonds may face volatility.

marsbit12/18 06:11

Will Japan's Interest Rate Hike Trigger a Global Liquidity Shock?

marsbit12/18 06:11

2026 Grayscale Outlook: Ten New Investment Opportunities and False Hypes in Crypto

Grayscale's 2026 outlook anticipates a structural shift in digital asset investment driven by increased demand for alternative value stores and enhanced regulatory clarity. This is expected to attract significant institutional capital, integrate blockchain into mainstream finance, and end the traditional four-year crypto cycle. Bitcoin may reach new all-time highs in H1 2026. Key investment themes include: 1) Demand for monetary alternatives (BTC, ETH, ZEC) due to fiat currency risks; 2) Regulatory progress supporting adoption; 3) Stablecoin growth under the GENIUS Act; 4) Asset tokenization reaching a tipping point; 5) Privacy solutions (ZEC, AZTEC) for mainstream blockchain use; 6) Blockchain addressing AI centralization (TAO, NEAR); 7) DeFi acceleration, particularly in lending; 8) Next-gen infrastructure (SUI, MON); 9) Focus on sustainable revenue (SOL, ETH); 10) Staking becoming default for investors (LDO, JTO). Quantum computing and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) are identified as overhyped themes with limited 2026 impact. The overall trajectory points toward institutional adoption, with capital flowing primarily through regulated ETPs.

深潮12/18 03:07

2026 Grayscale Outlook: Ten New Investment Opportunities and False Hypes in Crypto

深潮12/18 03:07

The On-Chain Evolution of Private Credit: From Ledgers to Investable Products

Private credit is undergoing a significant on-chain evolution, transitioning from a ledger-based operational upgrade to a distributable, investable product. While the total value of tokenized private credit has surged to around $24 billion, only 12% of the $19.3 billion in active loans tracked on RWA.xyz are held in transferable tokenized form. The market is split between "representative" tokenization—where blockchain serves as a transparent record-keeping system for off-chain loans—and "distributable" tokenization, where loans are natively issued and held as transferable tokens on-chain. The latter is growing rapidly, offering benefits like enhanced liquidity, faster settlement, and improved transparency. Figure dominates the market with a 73% share but uses blockchain only for record-keeping. In contrast, platforms like Maple are driving the shift toward fully distributable tokenized credit. This shift could standardize and scale private credit distribution by reducing intermediation, enabling programmable compliance, and improving portability—key advancements for an asset class that represents less than 2% of the $1.6 trillion global private credit market.

深潮12/18 02:42

The On-Chain Evolution of Private Credit: From Ledgers to Investable Products

深潮12/18 02:42

Price predictions 12/17: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, DOGE, ADA, BCH, HYPE, LINK

Bitcoin failed to sustain above $90,000, signaling weak demand at higher levels, with institutional outflows of $634.8 million in BTC ETFs this week. Analysts warn that a break below the True Market Mean at $81,500 could trigger a sharp decline. However, Grayscale remains optimistic for 2026 all-time highs. Major altcoins show mixed signals: ETH faces resistance at $3,350; BNB struggles below $883; XRP tests channel support near $1.61; SOL risks falling to $110; DOGE shows a positive RSI divergence but remains below $0.15; ADA may drop to $0.32 if $0.37 breaks; BCH aims to hold above its 20-day EMA; HYPE and LINK face selling pressure at key EMAs. Overall, bears dominate short-term sentiment, with critical support levels under threat.

cointelegraph12/17 20:29

Price predictions 12/17: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, DOGE, ADA, BCH, HYPE, LINK

cointelegraph12/17 20:29

Shiba Inu May Attempt 20x, Yet Ozak AI Forecast Points Toward a Much Higher Potential

Crypto market sentiment is rising as Shiba Inu (SHIB) shows signs of a bullish expansion, with analysts predicting a potential 20x surge in the next bull cycle. However, Ozak AI (OZ) is drawing even more aggressive forecasts of 50x–100x growth. Unlike SHIB, which relies on hype and meme-driven cycles, Ozak AI operates with fully functional AI infrastructure, including real-time predictive engines and cross-chain autonomous agents. Its self-improving intelligence model processes blockchain data across multiple networks, enhancing accuracy and utility over time. While SHIB remains a strong meme token, Ozak AI is viewed as a superior asymmetric opportunity due to its technology-driven, compounding growth model.

TheNewsCrypto12/17 12:52

Shiba Inu May Attempt 20x, Yet Ozak AI Forecast Points Toward a Much Higher Potential

TheNewsCrypto12/17 12:52

Why Are Bitcoin Miners Collectively Turning to AI? The Reasons Behind Are Astonishing

Bitcoin miners are shifting from cryptocurrency mining to leasing data center space to major tech companies for AI workloads, driven by fundamental vulnerabilities in their core business model. Mining revenues are highly volatile and entirely dependent on Bitcoin's unpredictable price, while structural expenses—including rising electricity costs, increasing mining difficulty, and hardware depreciation—continue to climb. With the current cost to mine one Bitcoin estimated at around $130,000, far above its market price, miners face sustained operational losses. This financial pressure has accelerated a strategic pivot. Miners possess key infrastructure valuable to AI firms: high-performance GPU clusters, massive power capacity, and advanced cooling systems. Companies like Core Scientific are repurposing their facilities into AI data centers, generating stable rental income. This transition provides more reliable cash flow, reduces reliance on Bitcoin's price volatility, and strengthens the overall industry by weeding out weaker players and fostering a more resilient, diversified business model.

marsbit12/17 11:07

Why Are Bitcoin Miners Collectively Turning to AI? The Reasons Behind Are Astonishing

marsbit12/17 11:07

After Researching How to Add Leverage to Prediction Markets, I Found This Problem Almost Unsolvable

Leverage in prediction markets remains a major unsolved challenge due to the unique nature of binary outcomes. Unlike traditional assets, prediction market shares have a fixed maximum value of $1 and can drop to zero instantly upon event resolution, causing discontinuous price "jumps." This jump risk makes high leverage extremely dangerous, as liquidation mechanisms fail during sudden price moves, potentially leaving lenders with losses. Real-world cases, like dYdX’s TRUMPWIN market during the 2024 election, show even well-designed systems with safeguards can fail under jump conditions. Current solutions vary: some platforms (e.g., HyperliquidX, Drift) limit leverage to 1-1.5x; others use dynamic risk management (e.g., D8X, PredictEX); while some offer high leverage without clear risk disclosure. The core issue is that prediction markets resemble exotic options, not perpetual futures, and may require specialized, exchange-level infrastructure—such as time-based margin calls and multi-layer insurance—to manage jump risk transparently on-chain. Until then, sustainable high leverage remains elusive.

Odaily星球日报12/17 09:57

After Researching How to Add Leverage to Prediction Markets, I Found This Problem Almost Unsolvable

Odaily星球日报12/17 09:57

BitMEX Alpha: Could Western Union Be an Asymmetric Trade Opportunity in the Stablecoin Arena?

BitMEX Alpha explores whether Western Union (WU) represents an asymmetric investment opportunity in the stablecoin space. While stablecoins have reached a $250B market cap and serve as a critical "dollar API" for crypto, the most obvious investment target—Circle ($CRCL)—may not offer the best risk-reward due to high distribution costs and reliance on partners like Coinbase. In contrast, Western Union, with its established global distribution network of 200k+ physical agents and deep penetration in cash-heavy remittance corridors, is positioning itself to leverage stablecoin technology from the distribution side. WU already owns the last-mile channels that Circle must pay to access. By integrating its own dollar stablecoin (USDPT) and digital asset network, WU can maintain fee and FX spread revenue from its existing front-end while adding new income streams from on-chain settlement and float. WU trades at a distressed valuation (4x P/E, 10% dividend yield), pricing in digital disruption fears. However, it offers a deep-value, asymmetric bet on stablecoin adoption—a free option on its digital transformation, backed by strong cash flow. Circle, though a pure-play stablecoin issuer, faces margin compression and high customer acquisition costs. The report concludes that in the race for digital dollar adoption, controlling user access may be more valuable than minting tokens.

marsbit12/17 09:44

BitMEX Alpha: Could Western Union Be an Asymmetric Trade Opportunity in the Stablecoin Arena?

marsbit12/17 09:44

Crypto Is Dead, Long Live Crypto

Crypto Is Dead, Long Live Crypto The author argues that "crypto" as a self-contained, insular industry is dying. This is not a failure of the technology, but the demise of a closed ecosystem built by and for a narrow group of "crypto natives." This world, optimized for activities like yield farming, airdrops, and speculation, functions like a high-liquidity MMO game but has limited potential for mainstream adoption. The "death" signifies the end of this isolated world. Crypto will no longer be a separate industry but will instead integrate into everything else as a foundational technology. The label "crypto" will become a burden, and successful companies will simply be those that use blockchain without branding themselves as such. The future lies in serving "normal people," not just crypto natives. Success will be measured by users who benefit from the technology—like those using USDT for fast payments or stablecoins to hedge inflation—without knowing or caring how it works. The bottleneck is no longer user experience but intent: builders must create products that solve real-world problems. While the "casino" of speculation will persist, it will become just one vertical. The core values worth preserving are permissionless access, global liquidity, composability, and user ownership. The old playbook of liquidity mining and airdrops is failing; it merely recirculates capital within the same small group. Winners will be those who build for broad, real-world use cases in areas like payments and identity. Losers will be those who continue to serve only the crypto echo chamber. This transition may be difficult for early adopters whose identity is tied to the industry, but it is the inevitable path of any successful foundational technology. The mission was never to turn everyone into a crypto native, but to build tools that improve the world—even if the world forgets their name.

marsbit12/17 09:16