Bitcoin Rainbow Chart says ‘accumulate’ – But analysts warn of bear market

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-01-28Last updated on 2026-01-28

Abstract

Bitcoin briefly rallied to $89,300 following eased geopolitical tensions, but the overall trend remains bearish. On-chain analysts indicate whale accumulation is rising while retail investors exit. Traditional bullish models like Stock-to-Flow and Power Law have failed to predict market behavior. Both the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart and Pi Cycle Top indicator did not signal a market top, unlike previous cycles, suggesting either an incomplete cycle or a prolonged bear market. Analysts caution that underlying data supports a deepening crypto winter, contradicting more optimistic informal indicators. The market awaits clearer signals from macroeconomic events and spot flow momentum.

Bitcoin has rallied 3.74% from its lows on the 25th of January, reaching $ 89,300 at the time of writing. The move came after U.S. President Donald Trump said they would pause imposing new tariffs after a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

This development eased the macro market uncertainty, but the Bitcoin price trend remains bearish.

AMBCrypto reported that whale balances were climbing, while retail investors were leaving.

There is a case for a bullish Bitcoin reaction as geopolitical uncertainties appeared to ease. The FOMC meeting will bring added volatility to the market, but the consolidation around $90k needs decisive spot flows to bring recovery.

If there is a recovery to be made.

Traditional Bitcoin top signals fail to fire

In a post on X, CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno opined that the crypto market was trying to make up narratives to fit their biases.

When they fail, they make up the next one, while missing what the actual data says-that Bitcoin is now bearish.

“S2F failed. Power law failed. M2 failed. Business cycle failed. The latest model to try and catch the Bitcoin low seems to be the BTC/Gold ratio, which of course will show that Bitcoin is tremendously undervalued against gold. Fits the narrative.”

Analyst Axel Adler Jr also reported that the crypto winter is deepening. This was not a good sign for investors looking at the current bearishness as part of a pullback before new all-time highs.

This can be extremely confusing because some of the older (albeit less serious) indicators, such as the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, did not even get close to a market top. The highest that BTC prices reached in this cycle were into the “Accumulate” zone.

In 2017, the extremes were tested, and in 2021, the extremes were approached. The current one was way off if a crypto winter is indeed underway.

Neither did the Pi Cycle Top indicator fire a sell signal. It had successfully predicted the market top in the previous three cycles. Like the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, the current cycle was massively overestimated.

Unless, of course, you’re willing to accept that Bitcoin can indeed push to new highs past $150k in 2026.

Final Thoughts

Onchain analysts agreed that the data showed a Bitcoin bear market was underway.
This went against what traditional, and less widely used indicators, such as the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, were saying.

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion.

There’s An FOMC Meeting Scheduled This Month, But Will The Fed Decision Affect Bitcoin?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on June 16-17, with markets widely expecting the Fed to maintain interest rates at their current level of 3.5-3.75%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 99.4% probability of rates remaining unchanged. The outcome of this meeting is anticipated to impact Bitcoin's price. If rates are held steady, Bitcoin's current market trajectory is likely to continue unchanged. Conversely, an unexpected rate hike could trigger bearish sentiment by reducing investor risk appetite and market liquidity, potentially leading to sell-offs. A rate cut, though currently considered improbable, would be the most bullish scenario, encouraging investment in risk assets like Bitcoin and potentially driving its price higher.

bitcoinist16m ago

There’s An FOMC Meeting Scheduled This Month, But Will The Fed Decision Affect Bitcoin?

bitcoinist16m ago

Anthropic's IPO Launch: Commercial Miracle or Valuation Bubble?

Anthropic has confidentially filed for an IPO, led by Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, potentially going public by October. Following its latest $650 billion funding round, its pre-IPO valuation stands at $965 billion, with projections reaching up to $2 trillion at listing, which would make it the highest-valued private company ever. The article, written by Fu Sheng, addresses skepticism that this represents an AI bubble akin to the 2000 dot-com crash. It argues the current situation differs fundamentally. Unlike the internet bubble era, which relied on speculative narratives with little revenue, Anthropic's valuation is backed by unprecedented, measurable financial performance. Key data points include: * **Revenue Growth:** ARR skyrocketed from $10 billion in early 2025 to $470 billion by May 2026, targeting $100 billion by year-end—a growth curve unmatched in business history. * **Profitability:** It achieved operating profitability in Q2 2026 with an estimated $5.6 billion profit. * **Efficiency:** With ~3,000 employees and ~$470 billion ARR, its revenue per employee exceeds $10 million. Products like Claude Code, launched less than a year ago, already generate $25 billion in annualized revenue. * **Enterprise Adoption:** It boasts a strong enterprise client base, with 8 of the Fortune 10 and over 1,000 large firms spending over $1 million annually on Claude. The valuation is framed using a traditional SaaS model (e.g., a 10x Price-to-Sales multiple on $100 billion revenue). The author contends the core question for analysts has shifted from "How big could this be?" to "How much is it earning and will earn next quarter?" The discussion extends beyond Anthropic to a broader paradigm shift: the transition from a "carbon-based" to a "silicon-based" economy. Companies are increasingly prioritizing investment in compute and AI capabilities over human resources, as these directly scale productivity and competitive advantage. Anthropic's IPO is thus positioned not just as a corporate milestone, but as a price anchor for this new economic era.

链捕手22m ago

Anthropic's IPO Launch: Commercial Miracle or Valuation Bubble?

链捕手22m ago

US Senators Press Bank Regulators For ‘Fair’ Crypto Capital Rules

A group of U.S. Senate Republicans, led by Senator Cynthia Lummis, is urging federal bank regulators to establish clear and fair capital rules for banks involved with crypto assets. In a letter to the Federal Reserve, FDIC, and OCC, the lawmakers criticized the international Basel Committee's standards, which impose a punitive 1,250% risk weight on crypto assets, calling it a de facto ban not based on actual risk. They applauded recent interagency guidance that granted tokenized securities the same capital treatment as traditional ones, arguing this risk-based principle should apply consistently to all digital assets. The senators called on the agencies to develop a new capital framework, aligning with recent legislative progress on crypto market structure. Their push coincides with testimonies from top regulators, who emphasized a shift toward more risk-based supervision and responsible innovation, while also addressing stablecoin oversight under new proposals.

bitcoinist27m ago

US Senators Press Bank Regulators For ‘Fair’ Crypto Capital Rules

bitcoinist27m ago

Near Returns to the AI Stage: Transformation into a Public Chain Due to 'Payroll Difficulties,' Agent and Privacy Emerge as New Growth Narratives

NEAR Returns to AI Origins: From Payroll Struggles to Blockchain, Now Focusing on AI Agents and Privacy NEAR Protocol's journey began not with grand blockchain ambitions, but from a practical hurdle: its AI startup founders, including Transformer paper co-author Illia Polosukhin, couldn't efficiently pay international developers in 2017. This led them to pivot and build a high-performance, scalable blockchain. After years navigating various crypto narratives like sharding and cross-chain interoperability, NEAR is now leveraging its AI roots to re-enter the AI arena. A key driver is its "NEAR Intents" layer, which abstracts complex cross-chain transactions. Users simply state their goal (e.g., swap BTC for ETH), and a solver network finds the optimal route. This system has processed over $20B in cross-chain volume, generating significant fee revenue. A major growth area is private transactions via "Confidential Intents/Swaps," which hide trade details until settlement to protect against MEV and front-running. Remarkably, private swaps recently accounted for over 40% of NEAR's transaction volume, highlighting strong demand but also potential regulatory scrutiny. With its AI-founder pedigree, NEAR is positioning itself at the intersection of blockchain, AI agents, and privacy, aiming to become infrastructure for the emerging agent economy while navigating the challenges of its rapid adoption.

marsbit2h ago

Near Returns to the AI Stage: Transformation into a Public Chain Due to 'Payroll Difficulties,' Agent and Privacy Emerge as New Growth Narratives

marsbit2h ago

From Ethereum to AI's 'CROPS': What Exactly is This Set of 'Slow Variables' That Vitalik Repeatedly Emphasizes?

In recent discussions, Vitalik Buterin has frequently emphasized the concept of "CROPS," a framework defining core values for Ethereum's development. CROPS stands for Censorship Resistance, Capture Resistance, Open Source, Privacy, and Security. Initially outlined in the Ethereum Foundation's "EF Mandate," it represents a commitment to user sovereignty, ensuring that the network resists external control, remains open, protects privacy, and prioritizes security. The relevance of CROPS extends beyond Ethereum's foundational principles, becoming crucial in the context of AI integration. As AI agents begin handling wallet operations and automated transactions, the risk increases that users may cede control over their digital assets, privacy, and intentions to centralized AI service providers. A "CROPS AI" would therefore emphasize local execution where possible, privacy-preserving remote model calls (e.g., using zero-knowledge proofs), and transparent, verifiable processes to maintain user agency. Vitalik highlights a significant convergence between "CROPS Ethereum access layer" and "CROPS AI." Both address the same fundamental challenge: how users can access powerful services—be it blockchain data via RPCs or AI models—without exposing sensitive information or relinquishing ultimate control. This intersection points toward a future digital entry point that is more private, secure, and user-controlled. Ultimately, CROPS is not merely an abstract ideal but a practical guidepost. It steers development—from protocol resilience and wallet design to AI agent safety—towards a future where users retain self-sovereignty even as digital systems grow more complex and powerful. In an era of accelerating AI adoption, these "slow variables" of censorship resistance, openness, privacy, and security may define Ethereum's enduring value.

marsbit3h ago

From Ethereum to AI's 'CROPS': What Exactly is This Set of 'Slow Variables' That Vitalik Repeatedly Emphasizes?

marsbit3h ago

Trading

Spot

Futures

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

Meet ZetaChain: The Universal L1 for Apps That Work Everywhere — Even on Bitcoin

ZetaChain is the first ever Universal Blockchain to enable native connection across all blockchain ecosystems.

48.3k Total ViewsPublished 2025.06.16Updated 2025.06.16

Meet ZetaChain: The Universal L1 for Apps That Work Everywhere — Even on Bitcoin

Fractal Bitcoin: Scaling Bitcoin as a Recursive System

Fractal Bitcoin is a Layer-1 scalability solution built on the Bitcoin core code, enabling infinite scalability through a recursive approach.

47.8k Total ViewsPublished 2025.06.30Updated 2025.06.30

Fractal Bitcoin: Scaling Bitcoin as a Recursive System

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.