Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Shows Bear Market Could Be Over Soon – Details

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-01-31Last updated on 2026-01-31

Abstract

Bitcoin (BTC) prices fell over 8% in the past week, driven by institutional repositioning, Fed rate decisions, and a shift toward precious metals. Market sentiment is at "extreme fear," with the Fear & Greed Index at 16. However, analysts Michaël van de Poppe and James Easton suggest the bear market may be nearing its end based on the MVRV Z-Score indicator. This metric shows BTC is more undervalued than in previous bear cycles (2015, 2018, 2020, 2022), signaling a potential rebound. Targets are set at $90,000 and $97,500. Additional bullish signals include a low RSI on the BTC/Gold chart and gold's possible market top, historically followed by crypto rallies. BTC currently trades around $83,645.

Bitcoin (BTC) prices fell by over 8% in the past week alone, resulting in heightened bearish sentiments across the market. The downtrend, as seen across the broader crypto market, has been largely attributed to institutional repositioning, inflows to precious metals, and the Federal Reserve’s latest decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

To illustrate how cautious Bitcoin investors are, data from CoinCodex shows that the Fear & Greed Index stands at 16, indicating the market is ravaged by extreme fear. However, recent on-chain analysis shows Bitcoin may be approaching a turning point.

Hold! Bitcoin Market Winter Almost Over — Analyst

According to market analysts Michaël van de Poppe and James Easton, the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score is flashing a potential end to the bearish market phase seen over the past four months. Notably, after touching the $126,000 price level in early October, BTC has experienced significant selling pressure, resulting in a price twice retesting the $80,000 region.

Source: @CryptoMichNL on X

For context, the MVRV measures Bitcoin’s current market value to the average price (realized value) at which all coins were last moved. When paired with the Z-Score, it analyses how far market Value deviates from realized Value, expressed in standard deviations. The MVRV Z-Score helps to identify if Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued; thus, it can be used to highlight potential market bottoms or tops.

Based on the analysis presented by James Easton, Bitcoin’s current Z-Score is lower than that recorded during the bear markets in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022, indicating that the digital asset is trading at deep levels of undervaluation absent in previous market cycles. Although the decline from the present all-time high has been relatively lower compared to previous cycles, Van De Poppe explains that the MVRV Z-Score data indicate that the bear market has reached its latter stages, with a likely end now in view.

This postulation suggests BTC could soon produce a significant rebound with potential immediate targets set at $90,000 and $97,500.

More Reasons To Be Bullish — Van De Poppe

In a separate X post, Michaël Van De Poppe shares other developments that point to an impending Bitcoin recovery. One of which was the last time the RSI on the BTC/Gold chart fell below 30, marking the end of the last Bitcoin market. Furthermore, the gold market appears to have topped out after reaching a new all-time high of $5,600 on January 30. The seasoned analyst also highlights that a crypto mega rally followed the last time such a development happened with the precious metal.

At press time, BTC is valued at $83,645, as its daily trading volume climbs to around $72.31 billion.

BTC trading at $84,155 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on Tradingview.com

Related Questions

QWhat is the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score and what does it indicate about the current market?

AThe MVRV Z-Score measures how far Bitcoin's market value deviates from its realized value (the average price at which all coins were last moved), expressed in standard deviations. It is used to identify if Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued. The current analysis shows a Z-Score lower than in previous bear markets, indicating Bitcoin is deeply undervalued and suggesting the bear market is in its latter stages.

QAccording to the analysts, what price levels are potential immediate targets for a Bitcoin rebound?

AAnalysts Michaël van de Poppe and James Easton suggest that a significant rebound could have potential immediate targets at $90,000 and $97,500.

QWhat other indicator, mentioned by Van De Poppe, supports a potential Bitcoin recovery?

AVan De Poppe pointed out that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the BTC/Gold chart recently fell below 30, which previously marked the end of the last Bitcoin bear market. He also noted that the gold market appears to have topped out after its recent all-time high, a scenario historically followed by a crypto mega rally.

QWhat was the primary reason cited for the recent downtrend in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market?

AThe recent downtrend was largely attributed to institutional repositioning, inflows to precious metals, and the Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

QWhat does the current Fear & Greed Index value of 16 signify for the market?

AA Fear & Greed Index value of 16 indicates that the market is experiencing extreme fear among investors.

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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