After a period of consolidation, AAVE attempted a breakout but was rejected at $180, then retraced to $169.
At the time of writing, Aave [AAVE] traded at $173, down 2.32% on the daily charts. After AAVE cooled down, it created a buying window, especially for large entities.
AAVE whales signal a market return
Since the start of 2026, AAVE has hardly recorded any large whale orders. Spot Average Order Size data from CryptoQuant showed zero large orders since the 1st of January.
This indicated a significant scale-back from whales, as they stepped back from the market. This coincided with a period of prolonged market weakness.
However, market sentiment among whales has shifted, and on-chain monitors observed one whale purchase. According to Onchain Lens, a whale bought 11,089 AAVE valued at $1.9 million after being dormant for a month.
With the addition, the whale holds 355,093 AAVE, worth $59.15 million, and has $30 million in debt. When whales accumulate during a period of weakness, it signals strong conviction as they anticipate another leg up.
Demand is recovering across the market
Besides the whale comeback, buyers have returned across the market. Buyer’s vs. Seller Strength indicators on TradingView showed sellers were overwhelmed by buyers.
At the time of writing, the buyer’s strength rose to 80.82, while the seller’s strength dropped to 19.18, indicating newfound demand in the market.
Although sellers remain active in the market, buyers have shown more aggressiveness. At the same time, the altcoin’s Spot Taker CVD has remained green throughout the past week.
A positive Taker CVD suggested that buyers have mostly dominated the market, a clear sign of rising market demand. This leaves the market at a critical point, awaiting the next major move.
Is AAVE stable enough for a sustainable breakout?
AAVE showed bullish momentum, jumping above its short-term moving average, EMA 20, at $168 as buyers entered the market. At the time of writing, AAVE was testing the EMA50 at $274; a flip of this level will validate the altcoin’s upward momentum.
However, the downside strength remains elevated, especially as the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) fell to 64 after a bearish crossover.
Such market conditions indicated a fierce battle between bulls and bears for control of the market. Thus, the next move depends on which side overwhelms the market.
Thus, if the newfound demand, especially from whales, holds, the altcoin’s upside momentum will continue, flip $184, and target $194, where it faced rejection.
However, if bears retake the market and overwhelm the rising upside demand, the altcoin will seek support at $168.
Final Thoughts
- AAVE slipped 2.32% but held above the short-term moving average EMA20, signaling rising bullish momentum.
- A whale bought 11,089 AAVE valued at $1.9 million after a month of dormancy.
