Bitcoin’s Quantum Risk Steals Spotlight At Ethereum Gathering

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-02-23Last updated on 2026-02-23

Abstract

Bitcoin's vulnerability to quantum computing emerged as a key topic at the ETH Denver conference. While quantum computers pose only a moderate threat to Bitcoin’s hashing algorithms due to limited speed improvements, the real concern lies with digital signatures. Most wallets rely on elliptic curve cryptography, which Peter Shor’s algorithm could break using a sufficiently powerful quantum computer, allowing attackers to derive private keys from public keys. Current estimates of the qubit requirements for such an attack have decreased, with some studies suggesting six-figure-range machines might eventually pose a risk. However, practical challenges like error rates and stability remain significant barriers. In response, the crypto industry is proactively developing defenses. The Ethereum Foundation has a dedicated research group, and companies like Coinbase are engaged in planning, expressing confidence that the quantum threat is solvable with preparation.

Talk of quantum computers no longer sounds like science fiction at crypto events. At a recent developer gathering, the ETH Denver, engineers and security researchers turned their attention to a simple but unsettling question: what happens to Bitcoin if a powerful quantum machine comes online?

Reports have disclosed that new proposals are being folded into the network’s improvement process, laying early groundwork for defenses before any real crisis appears.

Quantum Computing: Why Hashing Is Not The Main Fear

Hashing—what miners and many parts of the system use—gets faster only a bit with quantum tricks. According to Lov Grover’s work, a quantum search method gives a square-root speedup, which changes safety margins but does not wipe them out.

In plain language: to break hashes at scale would need enormous, maybe unrealistic, machines under current models.

Signatures Face The Real Risk

Reports say the bigger worry is signatures. “What we’re worried about in the next five years are signatures, and that goes over with Shor’s,” Hunter Beast, co-author of BIP 360, said during the ETH Denver gathering.

The math behind most wallets today relies on elliptic curves, and Peter Shor showed a way a quantum machine could reverse that math.

That’s how a public key could reveal a private key once the right hardware exists. A blockchain security firm has been tracking addresses that have already exposed their public keys, and the numbers are not tiny.

Blockchain cybersecurity firm Project Eleven’s list flags millions of coins that, if an attacker had a big enough quantum device, would be at risk.

Bitcoin is now trading at $67,715. Chart: TradingView

How Close Are We?

Estimates have been moving. Older papers put the needed resources in the many millions of qubits. More recent research from groups like Iceberg Quantum suggests the figure could be much lower, perhaps into the six-figure range.

Still, raw qubit counts tell only part of the story. What matters is how many “logical” qubits you can run with acceptable error rates, how long calculations take, and whether the machine can stay stable for that time.

Lab steps by big firms also matter; for example, Google has reported progress in error correction that many found encouraging. That doesn’t mean the break-in is imminent, but it does change risk models.

Where The Industry Stands

Reports note teams are forming to study and build defenses. The Ethereum Foundation has a post-quantum group, and major exchanges and firms are taking part in discussions.

Coinbase set up advisers, and its CEO, Brian Armstrong, has said the problem can be handled with planning. It is “solvable”, he said.

Featured image from Devfolio, chart from TradingView

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