Bitcoin Enters Loss-Dominant Phase: Short-Term Holder SOPR Weakens

Bitcoin is attempting to hold above the $90,000 level as the market enters a new and increasingly decisive phase. After weeks of tight consolidation, BTC appears to be coiling for a volatile move, with price action compressing while conviction remains fragile on both sides of the market. This prolonged range has tested investor patience, but historically, such conditions often precede sharp expansions in volatility.

According to data shared by Axel Adler Jr., short-term holder behavior continues to reflect elevated stress beneath the surface. Since October 13, 2025, short-term holders have consistently been selling Bitcoin at a loss. The weekly average SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has remained firmly below the neutral 1.0 level, confirming that a large share of recent transactions are being realized at negative margins.

Compounding this signal, the SOPR Z-Score has remained negative, reinforcing the idea that loss-taking is not isolated or episodic, but rather persistent. This combination points to active distribution from short-term participants, even as Bitcoin trades well above long-term structural support zones.

This dynamic highlights a growing divergence within the market. While long-term structure remains intact, short-term participants are increasingly capitulating into weakness. As Bitcoin continues to defend the $90K region, the next directional move is likely to be shaped by whether this selling pressure exhausts—or accelerates into a deeper correction.

The latest on-chain update from Adler focuses on the behavior of short-term holders through the STH SOPR metric, which measures the ratio between the selling price and the acquisition price of coins that last moved within the past 155 days. When this indicator trades below 1.0, it means that short-term participants are, on average, realizing losses rather than profits.

As of January 11, the STH SOPR (7-day simple moving average) stands at 0.994, while the daily reading dropped to 0.9817, marking its lowest level since the start of the year. This is not an isolated data point. On January 8, the 7-day SOPR average crossed below the 30-day average, falling from 0.9996 to 0.9928. This crossover provides technical confirmation of a regime shift toward a loss-dominant environment.

Further reinforcing this signal, the SOPR Z-Score currently sits at -0.58. This indicates that SOPR values are trading roughly half a standard deviation below their annual mean, a zone that has historically coincided with local price bottoms rather than trend exhaustion.

Sustained SOPR readings below 1.0 increase psychological and financial pressure on short-term investors, often forcing capitulation. A meaningful regime change would require the 7-day SOPR to reclaim levels above 1.0, supported by a Z-Score turning positive and signaling renewed profitability for short-term holders.