[Анализ рынка от Huobi] Вероятность скорой смены тренда, объём торгов BTC восстанавливается, ETH в неопределенности

HTX News2022-10-11 tarihinde yayınlandı2022-10-11 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

Вероятность скорой смены тренда, объём торгов BTC восстанавливается, ETH болтается в неопределенности.

1. Объём торгов BTC восстанавливается

⠀

На ТФ 4 часа видно, что хотя цена первой криптовалюты немного снизилась, объем торгов показывает признаки восстановления. Это показывает, что инвесторы начали постепенно наращивать трейдинговую активность. Таким образом, краткосрочные инвесторы могут быть движущим фактором снижения цены BTC.

⠀

2. Объём продаж BTC со стороны китов остается высоким

⠀

В последнее время доля продаж BTC со стороны китов оставалась на высоком уровне, а пиковое значение на уровне около 0,48 означает, что цена BTC по-прежнему находится под сильным давлением продаж. Хотя падение BTC было незначительным, уже седьмой торговый день подряд биктоин находится в стадии коррекции. В настоящее время возможность эффективной поддержки под BTC снижается, и внимание уделяется риску знакового отката.

⠀

3. Ethereum болтается в неопределенности

⠀

На дневном графике цена ETH продолжала падать, и цена закрытия снизилась не сильно, но тенденция к снижению сохранилась. В настоящее время ETH удерживается на уровне 1280 долларов, при этом вторая криптовалюта находится в затяжном боковом движении уже 20 торговых дней. Что касается объема торгов, то текущий низкий объем торгов говорит о том, что инвесторы пока не видят потенциала в монете и заняли выжидательную позицию.

⠀

4. Давление продаж ETH до сих пор держится на высоком уровне

⠀

На рынках есть два типа покупателей и продавцов. Либо трейдер покупает или продает мгновенно по лучшей доступной рыночной цене (тейкер), либо покупает/продает с лимитным ордером (мейкер). В данной метрике мы рассматриваем только объем тейкеров по сравнению с общим объемом. Таким образом, она может показать нам, готовы ли трейдеры покупать актив по более высокой цене или продавать по более низкой. Это хороший показатель того, где в данный момент находится давление продаж.

Данный показатель в отношении Ethereum упал до самого низкого уровня за последнее время, достигнув 8 октября 0,897. Сейчас он немного подрос, но по-прежнему меньше 1. Это указывает на то, что в данный момент больше трейдеров готовы продавать свои ETH по более низкой цене, что свидетельствует о том, что давление со стороны продавцов сильнее, чем давление со стороны покупателей.

⠀

5. В целом ситуация на рынке улучшается

⠀

В последнее время, несмотря на то что рынок находится на стадии коррекции, позиционные данные не только существенно не снизились, но и сохранились на краткосрочном максимуме. В числовом выражении общий объём открытых позиций на 11 октября достиг уровня 29,98 млрд долл. США, что является самым высоким показателем с мая. Опираясь на эти данные, можно сделать вывод, что на рынке в скором времени, вероятно, можно будет ожидать смену тренда.

⠀

İlgili Okumalar

Bitcoin Falls Below $60,000 Again; After 20 Months, We've Reached a New Low

Bitcoin Drops Below $60,000, Hitting a 20-Month Low Bitcoin fell below the key $60,000 psychological level again, reaching a low of $59,023—its lowest point in approximately 20 months, dating back to October 2024. While it later recovered slightly to around $60,600, this marks its third significant breach of $60,000 this year. The downturn is attributed to two primary factors. First, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing their longest streak of net outflows since launch, with nearly $5.94 billion withdrawn over 30 days. This creates sustained selling pressure as Authorized Participants sell Bitcoin to meet redemptions. Second, shifting macroeconomic expectations are adding pressure. Strong U.S. job data and hawkish remarks from Fed officials have increased market pricing for potential rate hikes, reversing the earlier liquidity-driven bullish sentiment and prompting a shift away from risk assets like Bitcoin. Analyst views are mixed. 21Shares maintains a bullish long-term outlook, expecting prices to recover towards $100,000, citing historical post-halving cycles and substantial ETF holdings as a base. In contrast, Arthur Hayes predicts a potential bottom around $40,000 within six months due to persistent Fed hawkishness. CryptoQuant suggests, based on on-chain data, that the market may not find a bottom until prices fall below the average investor cost basis around $53,000, potentially extending the bearish phase into late 2026 or early 2027. The immediate focus is on upcoming U.S. inflation data and Fed signals. Lower-than-expected CPI could offer relief, but confirmation of sticky inflation or continued ETF outflows may lead to further downside pressure. Bitcoin's ability to hold above $60,000 remains a critical test for the near-term market direction.

Odaily星球日报19 dk önce

Bitcoin Falls Below $60,000 Again; After 20 Months, We've Reached a New Low

Odaily星球日报19 dk önce

Bitcoin Drops Below $60,000 Again; After 20 Months, What We've Waited For Is a New Low

Bitcoin has once again fallen below the key $60,000 psychological support level, hitting a low of approximately $59,023—its lowest point in nearly 20 months since October 2024. The price has since partially recovered to around $60,600. This decline is driven by two main factors. First, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a historic wave of net outflows, losing roughly $5.94 billion over 30 days. Sustained institutional redemptions create direct selling pressure in the spot market. Second, shifting macroeconomic expectations are adding pressure. Strong U.S. job data and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve have increased market pricing for potential rate hikes, undermining the liquidity-driven bullish thesis for Bitcoin. Analyst views are mixed. 21Shares maintains a year-end target of $100,000, citing historical post-halving patterns and strong ETF accumulation. In contrast, Arthur Hayes predicts a potential drop to $40,000 within six months due to persistent Fed pressure. CryptoQuant notes that the average investor cost basis is around $53,000 and suggests the bear market could extend into 2026/2027 without clear signs of renewed demand. Market focus now turns to upcoming U.S. inflation data and Fed signals. Bitcoin's ability to hold the $60,000 level is seen as critical for determining the near-term market direction.

marsbit40 dk önce

Bitcoin Drops Below $60,000 Again; After 20 Months, What We've Waited For Is a New Low

marsbit40 dk önce

When Billions Begin to Operate Everything by Voice, How Far is ‘All Assets on Chain’?

In June 2026, WeChat began a limited rollout of "Xiaowei," its native AI assistant. This move is more than an upgrade to a smarter chatbot; it signals a crucial step from "universal internet access" toward the broader vision of "full asset tokenization." Xiaowei, powered primarily by WeChat's in-house WeLM model, demonstrates four key capabilities: 1) direct voice/web chat control of app functions, 2) automated access to mini-programs for services, 3) instant comprehension and summarization of complex documents like PDFs, and 4) generating functional mini-program prototypes from simple natural language requests. This represents a fundamental shift from GUI (Graphical User Interface) to LUI (Language User Interface), eliminating friction in human-digital interaction. The rollout is pivotal because it brings AI Agents to China's massive user base with zero friction—no new app downloads or accounts needed. This "seamless access" mirrors past platform revolutions like the App Store or WeChat Mini-Programs, potentially unlocking a global AI Agent market projected to grow from $7.92 billion in 2025 to nearly $295 billion by 2035. The article argues that China's internet evolution has moved from "connecting everyone" to "putting all services online." The next phase is "tokenizing all assets"—a concept broader than just Real World Assets (RWA) like real estate. It encompasses tokenizing personal assets like social influence, attention, and credit history. RWA tokenization itself is forecast to explode from $35 billion in 2025 to over $500 billion in 2026. The convergence of ubiquitous AI Agents and rapidly tokenizing assets points to a future paradigm for wealth management. Your AI Agent could autonomously manage a globally diversified, tokenized portfolio based on your preferences. Initiatives like EXIO Group's full-stack RWA services aim to lower investment barriers, paralleling WeChat's democratization of AI access. In conclusion, the launch of Xiaowei is not merely a technical upgrade but a historic inflection point. It marks AI Agents' transition from niche tools to essential utilities and accelerates the movement toward a future where voice commands seamlessly interact with tokenized value, redefining humanity's relationship with the digital and financial worlds.

marsbit1 saat önce

When Billions Begin to Operate Everything by Voice, How Far is ‘All Assets on Chain’?

marsbit1 saat önce

S&P 500 Falls for Third Consecutive Day, Dollar Breaks Through 13-Month High, Gold Dips Below 4000, Oil Below 70, Bitcoin Below 60000 Mark, Micron and Qualcomm Spark Major Chip Stock Rebound

U.S. stocks were mixed, with the S&P 500 falling for a third consecutive session as tech weakness offset gains in other sectors. The Nasdaq underperformed, with the AI semiconductor sector plunging nearly 10%. Micron and Qualcomm, however, sparked a major after-hours rally in chip stocks, with Micron surging over 16% on a strong earnings report and outlook driven by AI-related memory demand. The dollar rose to a 13-month high, pressuring dollar-denominated assets. Gold tumbled below $4,000 per ounce, and oil prices crashed, with WTI crude falling below $70 a barrel to its lowest level since before the Iran conflict, as geopolitical risk premiums faded with improved Middle East supply flows. Bitcoin briefly fell below the $60,000 mark. Treasury yields dropped sharply, with the 10-year yield falling 9 basis points, supported by the drop in oil prices easing inflation concerns. Market focus now turns to upcoming PCE inflation data for further direction on Fed policy.

华尔街日报1 saat önce

S&P 500 Falls for Third Consecutive Day, Dollar Breaks Through 13-Month High, Gold Dips Below 4000, Oil Below 70, Bitcoin Below 60000 Mark, Micron and Qualcomm Spark Major Chip Stock Rebound

华尔街日报1 saat önce

SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son's New Trillion-Dollar "Gamble"

SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son is embroiled in a new trillion-dollar "bet" on Physical AI and humanoid robotics, even as his massive wager on OpenAI faces uncertainty ahead of its potential IPO. Recent reports reveal OpenAI's steep losses—$85 billion net loss by Q1 2026 and a $38.5 billion loss in 2025—casting doubt on its path to a trillion-dollar valuation. SoftBank, OpenAI's second-largest external shareholder with a planned 13% stake, stands to gain hugely if OpenAI succeeds. Undeterred, Son is already pushing forward with his next ambitious venture: consolidating SoftBank's AI and robotics assets into a new U.S.-based company named "Roze," targeting a $100 billion IPO as early as late 2026. This move aligns with his belief that Physical AI, merging AI cognition with robotic physical execution, is the next trillion-dollar frontier. Son's confidence stems from recent AI wins; SoftBank's stock surged and he briefly regained the title of Asia's richest person, largely due to OpenAI's soaring valuation. However, his aggressive strategy has raised internal concerns about over-reliance on OpenAI and strained finances. With competitors like Anthropic advancing rapidly and OpenAI's IPO timing uncertain, Son is racing to capitalize on the AI boom. His long-term vision for Physical AI includes a decade of investments in robotics, from Boston Dynamics to recent acquisitions like ABB's robotics unit, and a planned $1 trillion investment in U.S.-based AI robotics industrial parks. Yet, challenges remain: humanoid robotics firms like Figure AI lack the clear revenue paths of AI software companies, and Roze's lofty valuation faces skepticism. For Son, these bets are also driven by an unfulfilled promise of massive returns to key investors like Saudi Arabia's PIF. Despite risks, he continues to double down, betting that the fusion of AI and physical machines will define the next technological era.

marsbit1 saat önce

SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son's New Trillion-Dollar "Gamble"

marsbit1 saat önce

İşlemler

Spot

Futures