Author | jk
Bitcoin breached the key psychological support level of $60,000 again during trading today, briefly falling to $59,023, marking its lowest point since October 2024, a nearly 20-month low. As of this writing, BTC has slightly recovered from the low, trading around $60,600, with its 24-hour loss narrowing to about 3%, and down approximately 9% over the past seven days.
This latest decline marks the third time Bitcoin has fallen below the $60,000 mark this year. Unlike the previous two instances, this drop occurred against a backdrop of sustained institutional capital outflows and a sharp turn in macro policy expectations, systematically impacting market confidence.
What are the reasons?
Reason One: Spot ETFs Experience Longest-Ever Net Outflow Streak
U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have become the core driver of this decline. Since mid-May, ETFs have recorded net outflows for six consecutive weeks, with a cumulative loss of approximately $5.94 billion over 30 days, representing the largest wave of institutional withdrawals since their launch in January 2024.
Among them, BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day net outflow of $528 million on May 28, setting a record high since its listing. The total assets under management for Bitcoin ETFs have shrunk from about $113 billion at the beginning of the year to approximately $77.5 billion, evaporating over 30%. Notably, according to The Block data, ETFs still recorded a single-day net outflow of about $113.8 million on June 23, indicating no substantial reversal in the institutional withdrawal trend yet. Whether institutional selling pressure will begin to ease hereafter will be a key observation window for the market.
ETF Net Outflows, Source: The Block
The problem with ETFs is the cycle: when institutions redeem shares, authorized participants must sell the corresponding Bitcoin directly in the secondary market, creating sustained spot selling pressure. CoinShares characterizes the current situation as a "sentiment shock," arguing it is not a structural collapse of the crypto market fundamentals.
Reason Two: Fed Rate Hike Expectations Reignite, Macro Pressure Soars
The macro landscape has also created significant pressure on Bitcoin. U.S. job openings in April rose to 7.62 million, far exceeding market expectations and reaching the highest level in nearly two years, directly pushing the 10-year Treasury yield back above 4.45%.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack subsequently stated publicly that if inflation persists, the Federal Reserve may need to restart rate hikes. CME FedWatch data shows the market's probability pricing for a rate hike before year-end has risen to over 50%.
Conversely, the robust bull market in 2025 was built on the liquidity expectation of "Fed rate cuts." Once the rate cut expectation reverses and real interest rates rise, institutional capital tends to shift towards lower-risk assets like bonds and cash, with Bitcoin as a high-risk asset bearing the brunt.
What Are Different Analysts' Views?
- 21Shares: In its latest "State of Crypto" report, 21Shares notes that the trajectory of this decline closely aligns with historical post-halving correction cycles. Although it had earlier speculated that Bitcoin's four-year cycle might be ending, the current price action suggests the cycle remains intact. The firm maintains its expectation for a price recovery to $100,000 before year-end, believing the massive base of roughly $53 billion in cumulative net inflows into ETFs will provide solid bottom support.
- Arthur Hayes: Holds a more pessimistic outlook, expecting Bitcoin to bottom around $40,000 within the next six months, with the core logic being the Fed's hawkish stance will continue to suppress market liquidity. Hayes states that while maintaining long positions, he has hedged downside risk with options.
- CryptoQuant: Citing on-chain data, it points out that the current average investor cost basis is around $53,000, and historically bear market bottoms typically occur after the price falls below the "Realized Price." The institution believes this bear market may extend into late 2026 or even early 2027, with no clear signals yet of a sustained resurgence in demand.
In the short term, market focus will center on upcoming U.S. inflation data and the Fed's next policy signals. If CPI data falls below expectations, it could provide a breathing window for Bitcoin; if it confirms persistent inflation again, the pressure for further declines will continue to build. With extreme panic sentiment not yet dissipated and a clear turning point in ETF fund flows not yet in sight, whether Bitcoin can hold the $60,000 key support line may determine the next direction of this bear market.
