TRUMP代币从历史高点暴跌95%后，会进一步下跌吗？

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-02-10Last updated on 2026-02-11

Abstract

特朗普代币（TRUMP）自2025年1月20日创下73.43美元历史高点后持续下跌，截至撰稿时已跌至3.32美元，较峰值暴跌95.5%。近期受比特币大幅回调及特朗普关联金融机构World Liberty Financial接受国会调查影响，市场情绪低迷。技术指标显示日线级别仍处熊市结构，OBV创新低反映抛压沉重，RSI长期处于20超卖区间。短期可能反弹至3.57-4.09美元阻力区间，若比特币突破7.4万美元或助推TRUMP测试5.19美元，但当前买盘乏力。分析师建议投资者可等待反弹至4.4-4.7美元后逢高做空，预计后续可能跌破3.02美元延续跌势。

官方特朗普币[TRUMP]在2025年1月20日美国总统唐纳德·特朗普就职前创下历史新高。此后，这款基于Solana[SOL]的迷因币不断创下新低，仅在市场整体反弹时出现短暂喘息。

最近一次反弹出现在2026年第一周。自1月14日以来，TRUMP累计下跌42.5%，撰稿时交易价格为3.32美元。较去年73.43美元的历史高点下跌95.5%。

TRUMP下跌的原因

三周内，比特币[BTC]价格下跌24.9%。国会针对特朗普支持的世界自由金融[WLFI]与外国主权资本关联的调查报告，也影响了官方特朗普币的市场情绪。

日线图显示市场结构仍呈看跌趋势。一月初反弹后OBV指标再创新低，显示抛售量强劲。自上周四以来，每日RSI指数持续徘徊在20附近，表明处于极度超卖状态。

TRUMP反弹幅度取决于...

3.57至4.09美元之间的失衡区域（白色方框）是潜在价格反弹的首要目标，该区域可能成为短期供应区。若重新测试4.40或4.72美元可能引发下一轮看跌走势。

另一方面，若比特币强势突破7.4万美元，可能推动该代币升至5.19美元。但撰稿时鉴于买盘压力微弱，这种情况可能性较低。

交易者是否应该等待反弹？

迷因币在市场情绪短期转变时往往呈现放大波动性。这可能推动TRUMP涨幅超预期。因此交易者可等待价格在所述阻力位出现回调信号后再考虑做空反弹。

未来数周内，价格可能跌破3.02美元创新低，延续长达一年的下跌趋势。

最终观点

官方特朗普币受到市场全面抛售和世界自由金融调查的负面影响，面临强烈抛压
短期可能反弹至4.4-4.7美元区间，随后继续下行

免责声明：本文所提供信息不构成金融、投资、交易等任何形式建议，仅代表作者个人观点。

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