Key Takeaways
What’s the status of the Bitcoin LTH sell-off?
It has hit $43 billion amid negative flows in ETFs, further exerting pressure on the BTC price.
Is a recovery possible for BTC?
Most likely, if ETF inflows rebound. However, traders were preparing for a downside move to $96k or lower.
Bitcoin [BTC] OG whale, Owen Gunden, offloaded another 700 BTC via Kraken on the 11th of November. This week alone, he has dumped $200 million worth of BTC (1800 coins).
It was part of a broader sell-off trend from long-term holders (LTH), who have held the asset for over five months.
The trader has accelerated his sell-off since October, reducing his BTC holdings from over 11,000 BTC (approximately $1.4 billion) to 5,350 BTC (about $560 million).
Source: Arkham
While Gunden’s stash was close to being fully sold out, the pressure from other OG whales could still derail BTC’s strong recovery.
LTH dump hits $43 billion
In November, the LTH has offloaded approximately 414,000 BTC (equivalent to about $43 billion) on a monthly average.
And the pressure began in July and deepened in October, adding to the H2 headwinds that have dragged BTC from $126k to above $100k.
Source: CryptoQuant
However, there is always one common counterargument: If BTC hit a new price peak of $126k in October amid the whale sell-off, then why can’t it recover again now?
At the start of H2 2025, the overall demand and institutional flows from ETFs and treasury firms were strong enough to absorb the sell-pressure without dragging the BTC price.
Over the past few weeks, however, this demand line has turned negative, further compounding BTC’s headwinds.
In particular, ETF outflows reached 31,000 BTC in November and closely mirrored the weak market sentiment seen in early 2025 during the tariff wars.
Source: CryptoQuant
Options data signal caution
With the negative Apparent Demand, the whale dump has become more evident in weakening BTC momentum. A rebound in ETF inflows could help ease the pullback.
As of press time, BTC traded at $105k. In fact, market caution has intensified, as evidenced by the increased hedging activity on the Options market.
According to Options volumes, most traders were buying puts (bearish bets, hedging) targeting as low as $85k for year-end.
Source: Arkham
For Options expiries at the end of November, there was notable hedging activity and demand for downside protection for a move to $96k.
The only call buying (bullish bets, green) occurred at $108k over the past 24 hours, underscoring the increasing expectation of an extended correction below $100k.
