Key takeaways:
Onchain data shows short-term holders are accumulating despite volatility.
Technical patterns mirror past Dogecoin bull cycles, hinting at a breakout phase to $1.60 by Q1, 2026.
Dogecoin experienced a steep drop on Friday, with prices plunging to $0.08 from $0.25 in a sudden 66% flash crash. Despite a swift recovery to $0.20, the move wiped out over $365 million in long positions, more than four times the previous yearly high of $89 million in long liquidations. While leveraged markets underwent a massive reset, spot traders could be taking advantage of the situation.
Onchain data suggested that DOGE’s long-term fundamentals remain resilient even after the liquidation event. Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson said that DOGE has not yet entered a phase of “euphoria,” and short-term holders are steadily accumulating. The analyst said that DOGE reached its cycle top in December 2024 precisely at the CVDD Alpha metric, a tool based on Cumulative Value Days Destroyed used to identify cycle peaks and bottoms.
While the 2024 top was relatively weak in terms of onchain interest, Wedson highlighted that the model has accurately captured every DOGE top since 2016.
Recent Hodl Waves data showed an increasing share of DOGE supply held by investors with up to six months of coin age, a sign of renewed speculative inflows. Historically, this has been a precursor to higher prices, as new capital entering the market lifts DOGE’s Realized Cap. Supporting this, the MVRV Z-Score remained far below euphoric levels last seen in 2021, indicating that the market is still in an early expansion phase.
Meanwhile, data from CryptoQuant indicated that retail positioning remains neutral, with no signs of speculative frenzy. The current equilibrium in retail participation, neither overheated nor apathetic, typically reflects an environment where accumulation outweighs hype.
This phase often precedes broader retail inflows, suggesting that DOGE’s ongoing rally may still have room to extend before peaking.
Uncertainty could be a bullish signal for DOGE
While sentiment around DOGE appears cautious after the flash crash, this very uncertainty has historically been among its strongest bullish signals.
Crypto trader EtherNasyonal observed that every significant DOGE rally in history began after maintaining persistence above the 25-day moving average, breaking a long-term falling trend, and entering a retest phase. The trader said that all these conditions are currently in place, pointing out that DOGE tends to begin its major runs under conditions of disbelief and market fatigue.
Similarly, market analyst Trader Tardigrade highlighted that DOGE’s current structure mirrors its 2014–2017 bull cycle, implying that a breakout rally could follow, potentially targeting $1.60 by early 2026.
