XWIN Research: массовые ликвидации укрепляют рынок биткоинов и подготавливают его к новому росту

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2025-01-14Last updated on 2025-10-15

Исследование XWIN Research Japan показало, что масштабные ликвидации в истории биткоина не завершали бычьи циклы, а, напротив, выступали механизмом «очищения» рынка. Исследование показывает, что такие события «сбрасывают избыточный леверидж». Это лишь усиливает структуру и подготавливают почву для нового роста.

Аналитики изучили 5 ключевых случаев: 22 февраля, 18 апреля, 19 мая и 7 сентября 2021 года, а также последний эпизод 10 октября 2025 года. Во всех примерах прослеживается единая закономерность: крах плечевых позиций вызывает панику, за которой следуют стабилизация и восстановление цен.

В 2021 году после коррекции 22 февраля, курс Bitcoin (BTC) быстро вернул прежние уровни. Затем, 18 апреля избыточный рост и негативные новости привели к падению на 20%, а 19 мая после запрета криптовалют в Китае и разворота цен на акции Tesla, курс снизился на 30%. Наконец, 7 сентября обвал на фоне принятия закона о Bitcoin в Сальвадоре оказался кратковременным: цена быстро восстановилась с $40 000 до $53 000.

Каждое из этих событий сопровождалось обвалом открытого интереса (OI) на рынке деривативов, переходом финансирования в отрицательную зону и ростом страха среди инвесторов. Однако именно такие периоды становились отправной точкой для следующего восходящего движения, очищая рынок от спекулятивных позиций.

Эксперт напомнили: 10 октября 2025 года произошла крупнейшая ликвидация в истории крипторынка — около $19 млрд позиций было принудительно закрыто после новостей о введении тарифов между США и Китаем. Курс Bitcoin упал на более чем на 8% до $104 000, но уже через несколько дней рынок вновь показывает признаки восстановления. Этому способствуют притоки в ETF, институциональная ликвидность и снижение остатков BTC на биржах. По мнению аналитиков XWIN Research, массовые ликвидации — не признак краха, а фаза очищения, после которой именно спотовый спрос вновь становится движущей силой рынка.

Solana dApps Generated $257 Million In Q2 Revenue, Data Shows

Solana's decentralized applications (dApps) generated $257 million in revenue during the second quarter of 2026, marking the ninth consecutive quarter the network has led major Layer 1 and Layer 2 blockchains in fee-generating activity. This revenue metric, considered harder than hype, indicates real on-chain economic activity like decentralized exchange trading and token launches. While the figure underscores Solana's position as one of crypto's most active ecosystems and provides a narrative edge over Ethereum rivals, it is heavily tied to high-velocity, speculative trading such as meme coin activity. This dependency means revenue could decline if market sentiment shifts. The key test for Solana's dApp economy will be sustaining this revenue base during quieter market conditions.

bitcoinist2m ago

Solana dApps Generated $257 Million In Q2 Revenue, Data Shows

bitcoinist2m ago

The Most Hidden AI Winners

"The Most Under-the-Radar AI Winners" While core AI giants and their direct suppliers have dominated headlines, a group of seemingly unrelated, decades-old manufacturing companies have emerged as major beneficiaries. A key example is Japan's TOTO, famous for bathroom fixtures. Its stock soared 145% in a year, driven not by its mainstay toilet business but by its nearly 40-year-old semiconductor ceramic component unit. Specifically, TOTO manufactures electrostatic chucks—critical, hard-to-replace parts for advanced chip manufacturing processes like etching and EUV lithography. This segment, though only 9% of revenue, contributed over 54% of operating profit in FY2025 with a 43% margin. High barriers to entry, including deep know-how in high-purity ceramic sintering and long supplier certification cycles (5+ years), secure its position. This pattern repeats across industries. Nitto Boseki, a 128-year-old glass fiber maker, saw its stock rise 325% due to near-monopoly supply of T-glass, an essential low-expansion material for AI chip substrates. Similarly, Ajinomoto, the global MSG leader, commands 80-95% of the market for ABF film, a vital insulating layer in chip packaging. These "hidden" segments, often born from deep materials science expertise, are now bottleneck supplies in the AI hardware chain, enjoying pricing power and high margins. In China's A-share market, the theme combines this AI-driven demand with domestic substitution. Companies like Zhongci Electronic (advancing in electrostatic chucks) and Honghe Technology & Feilihua (in high-end electronic glass fabrics) are gaining traction. The investment thesis hinges on whether these domestic players can rapidly scale qualified capacity to capture the supply gap within the critical time window. Ultimately, these cases show that in the AI supply chain, high-profit concentrations exist not only at the cutting-edge tech frontier but also in indispensable, difficult-to-replicate materials and components. Market recognition often lags behind fundamental profit shifts, creating potential for significant re-ratings as traditional industrial firms are re-evaluated as key enablers of advanced semiconductor manufacturing.

marsbit7m ago

marsbit7m ago

The Most Secretive Winners of the AI Boom

"The Most Hidden AI Winners" An unlikely group of companies are emerging as major beneficiaries of the AI boom, not from designing chips, but from supplying critical materials and components essential for advanced semiconductor manufacturing. These 'hidden winners' are traditional manufacturers whose deep expertise in materials science has become indispensable. Japanese companies are leading this trend. Toto, globally known for bathroom fixtures, has seen its stock surge 145% over the past year, driven by its 40-year-old semiconductor ceramics business, which now contributes over half of its operating profit. Its electrostatic chucks are vital for advanced chip production and require years of expertise to manufacture. Similarly, Nittobo, a 128-year-old textile firm, controls 90% of the market for T-glass, a low-expansion glass fiber essential for AI chip substrates. Ajinomoto, the world's largest MSG producer, dominates the market (80-95% share) for ABF insulating film used in chip packaging. The core insight is that chasing "advanced" chips paradoxically increases reliance on traditional, high-precision material science where supply cannot be quickly replicated. These materials are now critical bottlenecks in the AI supply chain. This trend is mirrored in China's A股 market, framed by the theme of 'import substitution'. Companies like Zhongci Dianzi (electrostatic chucks) and Honghe Technology (ultra-thin electronic cloth) are making progress, but face the test of scaling production and matching Japanese rivals' quality. The key tension lies in the slow change of market perception. While profit structures rapidly shift towards high-margin tech components, these firms retain their traditional industry classifications, creating a valuation gap that is gradually closing as their roles in the AI ecosystem become undeniable.

链捕手14m ago

The Most Secretive Winners of the AI Boom

链捕手14m ago

DeFi Enters a Moment of Value Reassessment: Risks and Opportunities Behind the $70 Billion TVL

DeFi Enters a Moment of Value Reassessment: Peril and Opportunity Behind $70 Billion TVL On July 1st, the total value locked (TVL) across all DeFi protocols fell below $70 billion to approximately $69.358 billion, hitting its lowest point since February 2024. This decline signals a significant contraction in DeFi liquidity and marks a new adjustment phase for the industry, far from its 2021 peak of over $180 billion. The primary drivers of this TVL drop are a general decrease in crypto market risk appetite, which leads capital to exit volatile sectors like DeFi first, and the fading effectiveness of the high-yield liquidity incentive models that fueled the initial DeFi boom. Many protocols' high TVL figures were built on temporary subsidy-driven capital rather than genuine demand. Furthermore, capital is migrating to newer narratives like AI, RWA, and modular infrastructure. This cooldown exposes DeFi's growth bottlenecks: innovation has slowed with rampant protocol copycats, real yields have normalized to single digits, and poor user experience continues to hinder mass adoption beyond crypto-natives. However, the TVL decline does not spell the end for DeFi. The metric itself is limited, as it fluctuates with underlying asset prices. The industry is shifting from capital accumulation to efficiency competition, leveraging Layer 2 solutions and modular architecture to do more with less locked value. Crucially, DeFi is expanding into real-world financial use cases like the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and the growth of the stablecoin ecosystem, moving its value proposition from speculative token subsidies to real cash flows. In conclusion, while short-term pressures from liquidity contraction and user growth stagnation persist, the sector is undergoing a necessary value reassessment. DeFi is transitioning from a subsidy-driven, hype-based era toward a more mature, rational, and efficiency-focused phase, with long-term growth hinging on meeting real-world financial needs through RWA, stablecoins, and robust infrastructure.

marsbit34m ago

DeFi Enters a Moment of Value Reassessment: Risks and Opportunities Behind the $70 Billion TVL

marsbit34m ago

Crypto firms lead 2026 U.S. election donations with $189M: ‘Legalized bribery!’

Crypto industry leads corporate political spending for the 2026 U.S. midterm elections with a record $189 million, according to FEC data. This surpasses its 2024 total and accounts for over a third of all corporate donations. Major donors include a16z, Ripple Labs, and Coinbase, with funds largely supporting pro-crypto candidates, primarily Republicans. Key goals include passing the stalled CLARITY Act and protecting recent regulatory gains. Critics, like Senator Bernie Sanders, label the spending "legalized bribery."

ambcrypto38m ago

Crypto firms lead 2026 U.S. election donations with $189M: ‘Legalized bribery!’

ambcrypto38m ago

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