XLM returns to key support: Will $0.44 spark the next rally?

ambcryptoPublished on 2025-07-15Last updated on 2025-07-16

Key Takeaways

XLM has a strongly bullish outlook across multiple timeframes and has revisited the $0.42-$0.44 demand zone. The pullback might be over, unless Bitcoin drops below the $116.8k short-term support.


Stellar [XLM] was in a strong uptrend, but it could be time for a minor pullback. AMBCrypto reported that bulls may be exhausted after driving a 110% rally in just one week.

Stellar’s price dip in recent hours also coincided with a 4.95% pullback for Bitcoin [BTC], from $123.2k to $117.1k.

XLM CoinalyzeXLM Coinalyze

Source: Coinalyze

Coinalyze data showed that bullish enthusiasm was still strong in the short-term, and Funding Rates remained positive. The 10.6% price drop was accompanied by a drop of $20 million in Open Interest.

This suggested long liquidations and traders taking profit at the $0.51 resistance zone.

The spot CVD maintained its uptrend, showing that sellers weren’t dominant yet. This suggested that the price pullback might be shallow.

Can XLM bulls resume their upward march?

XLM 1-day ChartXLM 1-day Chart

Source: XLM/USDT on TradingView

Using the rally from the 22nd of June, a set of Fibonacci retracement levels was plotted (white). The market structure shifted bullish on the 6th of July, and high trading volume followed its swift rally to $0.516.

On the way higher, the daily chart presented some gaps. The first was at the $0.42-$0.44 area, which was being retested at the time of writing.

The A/D indicator was trending higher, showing the strong buying volume in recent days. The CMF agreed, its +0.23 reading well above the +0.05 threshold that marks sizeable capital inflow to the market.

The MFI began to recent from the 97.7 value it made on the 14th of July.

XLM 4-hour ChartXLM 4-hour Chart

Source: XLM/USDT on TradingView

While the 1-day chart showed strength, the 4-hour chart highlighted a bearish divergence. The MFI and the price, marked in orange, diverged to signal that a pullback was imminent.

This pullback saw XLM prices recede to $0.43. The CMF also fell to neutral values.

Overall, the bearish divergence has played out, seeing the XLM price revisit the fair value gap as a demand zone.

A deeper Bitcoin correction below the $116k mark could bring XLM prices lower, but until that happens, traders can maintain their bullish bias for Stellar.

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion

Share

Trending Cryptos

Related Reads

ARK Invest Heavily Buys Crypto-Related Stocks: Lower Risk, or Double Pressure?

During Bitcoin's worst monthly performance in four years, ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, purchased $77 million worth of stock in crypto-related public companies in June, including Coinbase, Circle, and Bullish. The investment thesis suggests these stocks offer compliant exposure to the crypto sector without directly holding Bitcoin. However, analysis reveals significant drawbacks: these stocks exhibit nearly double the volatility of Bitcoin itself (68%-90% vs. 37.6% over 30 days) and only moderate correlation with Bitcoin prices (0.55-0.58 for several firms). This indicates investors are exposed to both partial crypto price movements and a full suite of company-specific business risks like earnings, competition, and financing. MicroStrategy (MSTR) is the closest to a pure Bitcoin proxy with high correlation and leverage (beta of 1.59). In contrast, Circle's price is heavily influenced by stablecoin competition, while Robinhood's diversified business buffers crypto downturns but also limits upside. Notably, some mining stocks (RIOT, MARA) have risen sharply in 2024 due to AI-related ventures, decoupling from Bitcoin's decline. The case of MicroStrategy highlights additional equity-specific risks like potential shareholder dilution and the breakdown of its premium valuation model (mNAV), which recently forced it to consider selling Bitcoin for liquidity. While some stocks like Coinbase have outperformed Bitcoin year-to-date, the data suggests investing in crypto equities generally amplifies volatility or layers on independent business risks compared to direct Bitcoin ownership.

marsbit27m ago

ARK Invest Heavily Buys Crypto-Related Stocks: Lower Risk, or Double Pressure?

marsbit27m ago

DeepMind's Classic Masterpiece Crowned Again, ICML 2026 Awards Announced

ICML 2026 has announced its annual awards, with diffusion models and AI safety ethics taking center stage. The Outstanding Paper Award was shared by two diffusion model studies. One challenges a core assumption of diffusion language models (DLMs), arguing that their touted "arbitrary order generation" is a "flexibility trap" that harms performance. The other provides a high-accuracy sampling method, pushing the technical ceiling for diffusion models and log-concave distributions. A position paper winning the Outstanding Award raises a critical ethical concern: AI alignment research is unintentionally building a "censor's toolkit," where safety tools like RLHF can be repurposed for content control. Several papers received Honorable Mentions, spanning key areas: mapping where honesty emerges in RLHF-trained models, motion attribution in video generation, quantifying how much language models memorize, analyzing diffusion model consistency via random matrix theory, and providing a mathematical proof for the "grokking" phenomenon in a simple model. The Test of Time Award was given to DeepMind's 2016 seminal work "Asynchronous Methods for Deep Reinforcement Learning," recognizing the enduring impact of the A3C algorithm. Overall, the awards signal a shift in AI research from rapid expansion to deeper scrutiny—validating diffusion models as a major architectural contender while prompting serious ethical reflection within the safety community.

marsbit43m ago

DeepMind's Classic Masterpiece Crowned Again, ICML 2026 Awards Announced

marsbit43m ago

ARK's Massive Buying Spree in Crypto-Linked Stocks: Lower Risk, or Double the Pressure?

ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, significantly increased its holdings in crypto-related public stocks in June, purchasing $77 million worth of shares in Coinbase, Circle, and Bullish during Bitcoin's worst monthly performance in four years. The investment thesis is that these stocks offer regulated exposure to the crypto cycle without direct Bitcoin ownership. However, data analysis reveals significant downsides: these stocks exhibit nearly double the volatility of Bitcoin (68%-90% vs. 37.6% 30-day annualized volatility) and carry substantial company-specific risks like earnings, competition, and equity dilution, which account for much of their price movement. Only MicroStrategy closely tracks Bitcoin, acting as a leveraged proxy. Coinbase shows moderate correlation, while Circle and Robinhood have low correlation, being more influenced by stablecoin competition and diversified brokerage operations, respectively. Mining companies like RIOT and MARA have surged due to AI-related ventures, decoupling from Bitcoin's price. The case of Strategy highlights additional equity-structure risks, such as potential value erosion when its market value falls below its net asset value. Ultimately, investing in crypto stocks often means accepting amplified Bitcoin volatility or layering on unrelated business risks, rather than obtaining a safer alternative to direct cryptocurrency ownership.

Foresight News47m ago

ARK's Massive Buying Spree in Crypto-Linked Stocks: Lower Risk, or Double the Pressure?

Foresight News47m ago

Trading

Spot

Hot Articles

How to Buy XLM

Welcome to HTX.com! We've made purchasing Stellar (XLM) simple and convenient. Follow our step-by-step guide to embark on your crypto journey.Step 1: Create Your HTX AccountUse your email or phone number to sign up for a free account on HTX. Experience a hassle-free registration journey and unlock all features.Get My AccountStep 2: Go to Buy Crypto and Choose Your Payment MethodCredit/Debit Card: Use your Visa or Mastercard to buy Stellar (XLM) instantly.Balance: Use funds from your HTX account balance to trade seamlessly.Third Parties: We've added popular payment methods such as Google Pay and Apple Pay to enhance convenience.P2P: Trade directly with other users on HTX.Over-the-Counter (OTC): We offer tailor-made services and competitive exchange rates for traders.Step 3: Store Your Stellar (XLM)After purchasing your Stellar (XLM), store it in your HTX account. Alternatively, you can send it elsewhere via blockchain transfer or use it to trade other cryptocurrencies.Step 4: Trade Stellar (XLM)Easily trade Stellar (XLM) on HTX's spot market. Simply access your account, select your trading pair, execute your trades, and monitor in real-time. We offer a user-friendly experience for both beginners and seasoned traders.

4.7k Total ViewsPublished 2024.03.29Updated 2026.06.02

How to Buy XLM

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of XLM (XLM) are presented below.

活动图片