Pantera Capital: 加密项目想上市，如何定价才能让华尔街买单？

比推Published on 2025-07-14Last updated on 2025-07-14

原文标题：Blockchain Going Public: the Convergence of Public Markets and Digital Assets

原文作者：Paul Veradittakit，Pantera Capital 合伙人

原文编译：AididiaoJP，Foresight News

核心要点

加密企业 IPO 释放巨大价值，尽管市场定价面临挑战。
代币透明度框架旨在提升市场清晰度，吸引更多机构资金进入代币市场。
股票代币化正在重塑金融市场，提升效率并扩大全球资本准入。

被错误定价的加密 IPO

Coinbase 自上市以来的表现堪称典型案例，它揭示了公开市场对金融基础设施前沿创新的定价困境。我们目睹了 COIN 从开盘价暴涨 52% 、估值短暂突破 1000 亿美元的狂热高点，到随着市场情绪和加密周期波动而深度回调的全过程。每次市场转向似乎都在用新的估值框架重新定价 Coinbase，让长期价值投资者和建设者都感到困惑。

Circle IPO 是另一个近期案例：尽管市场对稳定币敞口需求旺盛，Circle 在上市首日却少赚了 17 亿美元，成为近几十年来定价最偏低的 IPO 之一。这不仅是加密行业的特例，更是新一代金融公司登陆公开市场时面临的结构性定价难题。

加密行业需要更具适应性的价格发现机制, 一种能在市场周期转换时，弥合机构需求与平台真实价值之间差距的机制。

新估值框架

加密市场仍缺乏类似 S-1 文件的标准化披露体系。加密 IPO 的错误定价证明，当承销商无法将代币经济学映射到 GAAP（美国通用会计准则）核对清单时，他们要么因炒作而高估，要么因恐惧而低估。为填补这一空白，Pantera Capital 的 Cosmo Jiang 与 Blockworks 合作推出《代币透明度报告》——包含 40 项指标，将协议不透明转化为 IPO 级别的清晰度。该框架要求创始人：

按实际主体各自计算收入
公布带标注的内部钱包归属
按季度提交代币持有者报告（涵盖资金库、现金流及 KPI）
披露做市商或 CEX 合作细节，让投资者在上市前评估流动性风险

这套体系为何能提升估值？

降低折现率：清晰的流通量和解锁数据让市场更接近内在价值定价
扩大买家基础：曾被「黑箱」协议阻挡的机构投资者可参与经认证的项目
监管相应：SEC 2025 年 4 月发布的加密发行指引与该框架高度契合，项目提交申请时已完成大部分文书工作，加速审批并缩小公私估值差距

以太坊最新升级完美诠释了区块链与传统企业的差异：每个新区块都会销毁部分 ETH（类似自动股票回购），同时为质押者提供 3-5% 的收益（类似稳定股息）。正确做法是将「发行量减去销毁量」视为自由现金流，折现后得到的估值才符合链上生态估值，而非仅反映资产负债表。但稀缺性只是第一步，链上活动才是完整故事：稳定币跨钱包流动、桥接活动、DeFi 抵押品流向等实时数据，才是代币价格的根本支撑。

全面的估值方法应以企业传统现金流为基础，链上收入（质押收益减去手续费销毁）作为核心要素校验。持续关注质押收益率、实时流量指标和情景分析，即可保持估值方法与时俱进，只有这样才能吸引传统资金进场。

股票代币化优化交易体验

Pantera Capital 通过投资 Ondo Finance 支持 RWA（真实世界资产）代币化领域。近期，我们与 Ondo 联合推出 2.5 亿美元基金以推动 RWA 发展。随着 Robinhood 宣布将股票代币化，该领域正加速成熟。上周，Robinhood 在其平台推出代币化股票，凸显了这一新金融技术的核心矛盾：无许可金融 vs 许可金融，以及 DeFi 的未来角色。

无许可的代币化股票允许任何人在公链上随时交易，为全球投资者开放了美国资本市场，但也可能成为内幕交易和操纵的温床。而基于 KYC 的许可模式虽维护市场公正，却限制了代币化股票的全球准入核心优势。

我们相信代币化股票将重塑 DeFi。DeFi 的使命本是构建开放、可编程的金融原语，但此前主要服务于加密原生代币。代币化股票的引入解锁了全新用例。代币化股票的结构将决定下一波用户和流动性的归属：

许可模式中，Robinhood 等拥有用户关系的传统机构主导前端，DeFi 协议只能在后端竞争流动性
无许可模式下，DeFi 协议可同时掌控用户和流动性，打造真正开放的全球市场

Hyperliquid 的 HIP-3 升级完美诠释了这一愿景：通过质押协议代币配置预言机、杠杆和资金参数，任何人都能为代币化股票创建永续合约市场。Robinhood 和 Coinbase 已在欧盟推出股票永续合约，但其模式仍比 DeFi 更封闭、可组合性更低。若保持开放轨道，DeFi 将成为可编程无国界金融工程的默认场所。

比特币市值超越谷歌

2025 年比特币以 2.128 万亿美元市值跃居全球第五大资产，超越谷歌。在机构采用、现货比特币 ETF 获批和明确监管的推动下，比特币突破 10.6 万美元。这一里程碑事件证明：可编程货币已找到明确的产品市场契合点。

展望未来

正如 Dan Morehead 所言，加密货币投资提供了传统市场无法比拟的回报。这正是传统公开市场与加密领域在财务和结构上加速融合的原因：

数字资产国库和加密 IPO 为公开市场提供加密财务敞口
稳定币和代币化利用加密技术优化传统市场结构

十年后，加密将不再是技术爱好者讨论的利基市场，而将成为支撑日常生活的核心科技。

原文链接:https://substack.com/home/post/p-167929827

说明: 比推所有文章只代表作者观点，不构成投资建议

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