Шанс импичмента в 12%. Как оценивают ссору Трампа и Маска на Polymarket

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2023-07-06Last updated on 2025-06-06

Участники рынка прогнозов также полагают, что вероятность примирения президента США и главы Tesla до следующей пятницы составляет 27%

Участники рынка криптовалютных прогнозов Polymarket начали делать ставки на вероятные, по их мнению, события, которые могут произойти вследствие ссоры президента США Дональда Трампа и миллиардера Илона Маска. Несколько пулов даже были выделены сервисом в отдельную категорию Trump vs Elon.

В четверг, 5 июня, стала публичной ссора, тлеющая между Маском и Трампом. Президент США начал критиковать бизнесмена на встрече с канцлером ФРГ в Белом доме. Позже перепалка перешла в соцсети — Truth Social и X. Конфликт вызвал интерес трейдеров Polymarket, пулы ставок на эту тему вошли в топ самых популярных.

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В ходе ссоры Маск поддержал в соцсети X идею о том, что надо объявить Трампу импичмент. В то же время самым популярным в категории Trump vs Elon на Polymarket стал пул «Будет ли объявлен Трампу импичмент в 2025 году». Участники оценивают вероятность этого в 12%.

Ставки из категории Trump vs Elon на Polymarket. Источник: Polymarket

Маск заявил, что Трамп «фигурирует в деле Эпштейна», поэтому часть документов по этому делу до сих пор не обнародована. Участники прогнозов оценивают в 15% вероятность того, что они будут опубликованы до конца года.

Также в категории Trump vs Elon делают ставки на то, посадит ли Трамп Маска в тюрьму (вероятность 5%), перестанет ли Маск быть самым богатым человеком на земле к июлю (11%) или вернется ли Маск в администрацию Трампа снова в этом году (8%).

Пул «Закроет ли Трамп Департамент государственной эффективности DOGE в 2025 году» указывает на то, что участники оценивают шансы этого события в 32%. Вероятность того, что Трамп извинится перед Маском до понедельника — 2%, а шансы на примирение до следующей пятницы — 27%.

В ходе ссоры Трамп заявил, что стоит перестать давать Маску госконтракты, на что миллиардер пригрозил начать выводить из эксплуатации космический корабль Dragon от компании SpaceX, но позже уточнил, что не будет. Трейдеры Polymarket оценивают в 88% вероятность того, что уже в этом году NASA полетит на Dragon с очередной миссией к МКС.

Курс биткоина отреагировал падением на ссору Трампа и Маска. Цена монеты опустилась к $100,7 тыс., обновив минимум за месяц. Участники Polymarket считают, что вероятность роста биткоина к $150 тыс. в июне составляет 1%, к $120 тыс. — 17%, к $110 тыс. — 53%. Падению до $100 тыс. дают 74% вероятности, шансы на уход к $95 тыс. — 41%.

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