Розничные инвесторы продолжают покупать падения и теряют деньги

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2023-08-21Last updated on 2025-03-21

Рынок валится, но «buy the dip» все еще в моде

Финансовые рынки в хаосе. Но это не мешает розничным трейдерам по-прежнему скупать падающие акции, как будто каждая просадка — шанс сорвать джекпот. На деле они просто теряют деньги.

С января по март американские инвесторы вложили более $2 млрд в акции — и так на 16 торговых сессиях подряд. Такие объемы покупок наблюдались всего четырежды за последние два года, по данным JPMorgan. Проблема в том, что все эти попытки оказались неудачными. Отскоки не удерживаются. Падения продолжаются, а люди продолжают покупать.

Убытки розничных инвесторов вдвое выше, чем у рынка

Индекс JPMorgan, отслеживающий поведение обычных инвесторов, показывает: с начала года они уже в минусе на 7%. Это в два раза больше, чем потерял индекс S&P 500 (–3,5%).

Аналитики предупреждают: если розница все еще покупает, значит, дна рынок не достиг. На Уолл-стрит знают: частные инвесторы почти всегда выходят последними. Пока они в игре, крупные фонды ждут ещё одного обвала.

Старые стратегии больше не работают

Биткоин теряет позиции, техногиганты снижаются, доллар слабеет. Стратегия «покупай на просадках», которая долгие годы работала безотказно, теперь чаще приносит убытки.

Второй срок Трампа привел к политике, которая дестабилизировала рынок. Инвесторы теряются: всё, что работало раньше, перестало давать результат.

В выигрыше оказались активы, которые еще год назад считались устаревшими: гособлигации США, европейские бумаги и сырье. А привычные рыночные фавориты ушли в тень.

Фонды возвращаются к скучной, но рабочей стратегии

Пока мелкие инвесторы теряют, фонды вроде Cambria Global Asset Allocation ETF (GAA) зарабатывают. Этот фонд, инвестирующий в акции, облигации, недвижимость и сырье, уже обогнал S&P 500 более чем на 6 процентных пунктов.

Если тренд сохранится, 2025 станет для GAA лучшим годом с момента запуска в 2014 году. Побеждает стратегия диверсификации, которую розничные инвесторы годами игнорировали.

Политика Трампа и падение Big Tech усиливают тревогу

Индекс S&P 500 недавно упал на 10%. Причина не совсем понятна. Кто-то винит хаотичные заявления администрации Трампа. Другие — слишком большую долю техногигантов в индексе.

Из 21% снижения почти половина пришлась на «Большую семерку» — Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta и Tesla. Их среднее падение — 14,4%. Без них рынок показал бы намного лучше: 25% компаний в S&P 500 даже прибавили в цене.

Самое интересное — под удар попали именно технологии, хотя формально они не связаны с торговыми мерами Трампа. Даже автопроизводители и ритейлеры, вроде Ford и Kroger, показали рост. Проблема не в тарифах. Проблема — в Big Tech. И рынок, похоже, это понял.

Если семерка падает — падает весь рынок

Для инвесторов это главный риск. Эти семь компаний годами тащили на себе весь S&P 500. С 2015 года их совокупный рост прибыли на акцию — 37% в год. Остальной рынок — лишь 8%.

Их вклад в доходность впечатляет: «семерка» давала 36% годовой доходности с 2015 по 2025 год, не считая дивидендов. Без них S&P 500 показал бы всего 5% в год. Это не пузырь. Это была реальная прибыль. Но даже у нее есть предел.

Сейчас эти компании дают сбой. И вместе с ними начинает трещать фундамент всего рынка.

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