Эксперт: стимулирующая политика центробанков помогает биткоину удержать уровень $100 000

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2024-02-14Last updated on 2024-12-14

Биткоин удерживает психологический рубеж в $100 000 благодаря высокой склонности к риску среди инвесторов, подпитываемой смягчением монетарной политики центробанков. Такое мнение выразил глава отдела деривативов Bitfinex Джаг Кунер в разговоре с The Block.

«ЕЦБ, Народный банк Китая (НБК) недавно снизил ставки впервые за 14 лет. Снижение ставки ФРС может улучшить условия ликвидности в глобальном масштабе, — отметил эксперт. — Это смягчение может стимулировать приток капитала в рисковые рынки, включая криптовалюту».

ЕЦБ снизил процентные ставки на 25 базисных пунктов по итогам заседания 12 декабря. В то же время регулятор пока не готов объявить о победе над инфляцией, заявила глава монетарного учреждения Кристин Лагард.

Ключевая ставка определяет стоимость денег для банков и, соответственно, стоимость кредитов для бизнеса и населения.

Растут спекуляции касательно перспектив дальнейшего смягчения денежно-кредитной политики НБК. Некоторые игроки Уолл-стрит вроде Goldman Sachs и Morgan Stanley ожидают дальнейшего снижения ставок в 2025 году — суммарно на 40 базисных пунктов.

Динамика ключевой ставки НБК. Данные: Trading Economics.

Что по ставке ФРС?

Многие участники рынка ожидают решения по ключевой ставке ФРС — заседание FOMC должно состояться 18 декабря.

Кунер отметил, что высокая вероятность снижения показателя на 25 базисных пунктов, а также стимулирующие меры в ЕС и Китае, усилили оптимизм на рынках рисковых активов, включая криптовалюты. В свою очередь, это может способствовать развитию «ралли Санты», подталкивая биткоин и другие монеты к росту.

Вероятность снижения ставки ФРС 18 декабря составляет 96%. Данные: CME FedWatch.

По мнению специалиста, вероятность возобновления буллрана возросла после недавнего каскада ликвидаций на рынках деривативов.

«Теперь, когда с рынков удалены лонги с чрезмерным левериджем, создается основа для следующего этапа, который начнется в ближайшие несколько недель», — заключил эксперт.

На момент написания биткоин торгуется в районе $101 580. Индекс доминирования первой криптовалюты — 52,9%.

Напомним, по итогам ноября годовая инфляция в США составила 2,7%, что соответствует рыночным ожиданиям.

Ранее специалисты Matrixport назвали благоприятную макроэкономическую среду одним из факторов роста первой криптовалюты до $160 000 в 2025 году.

Как ставка ФРС влияет на цены криптовалют?

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