加密市场遭遇「黑色星期一」，ETH 何去何从？

深潮Published on 2024-08-07Last updated on 2024-08-07

加密市场暴跌，引发大规模清算。

撰文：Ebunker

加密市场暴跌，引发大规模清算

自 8 月 2 日以来，加密货币市场表现低迷，原因主要包括地缘政治紧张局势、日本加息导致日本股市大幅抛售、美国就业数据疲软和经济衰退担忧、以及主要科技和零售巨头发布弱于预期的收入报告引发大规模科技股抛售等。

8 月 5 日，随着日本等传统金融市场出现大幅下跌，加密市场也迎来了暴跌时刻，全网交易所 24 小时内爆仓 10 亿美元，其中 BTC 爆仓 3.5 亿美元，ETH 爆仓 3.42 亿美元。

根据链上分析师@EmberCN（余烬）的一份报告，ETH 价格大幅下跌引发了 ETH 鲸鱼的链上杠杆清算浪潮，从而加剧了下跌。多个鲸鱼地址被迫出售其持有的 ETH 以偿还贷款，其中包括：

  • 以「0x1111」开头的地址清算了 6,559 ETH 以偿还 277.9 WBTC 贷款。

  • 以「0x4196」开头的地址清算了 2,965 ETH 以偿还 720 万美元的 USDT 贷款。

  • 以「0x790c」开头的地址清算了 2,771 ETH 以偿还 606 万美元的 USDC 贷款。

  • 以「0x5de6」开头的地址清算了 2,358 ETH，以偿还 517 万美元的 USDC 贷款。

CoinGecko 数据显示，在过去一周，ETH 从 3,300 美元左右暴跌至 2,200 美元下方，跌幅超 30%。ETH 暴跌的其他因素还包括市场杠杆清算压力增加以及 Jump Trading 大量出售 ETH 的消息。

注：据链上分析网站 Spot On Chain 报道，8 月 5 日，芝加哥交易公司 Jump Trading 的加密钱包将价值超过 4600 万美元的 17,576 枚 ETH 转移到中心化交易所。《财富》杂志曾于 6 月 20 日报道称，美国商品期货交易委员会 (CFTC) 正在调查 Jump Trading 的加密货币投资活动。自 7 月 25 日以来，该钱包已将近 90,000 枚 ETH 转移到交易所，市场暴跌之后，该钱包仍持有 37,600 枚 Lido 协议的 wstETH 和 11,500 枚 stETH。

去中心化平台 Cake Group 的 CEO 兼联合创始人 Julian Hosp 认为，「ETH 的暴跌与 Jump Trading 有关，原因可能是该公司在传统市场被追加保证金，需要在周末获取流动性，也可能由于监管原因而选择退出加密货币业务。」

Jump Trading 向 Binance 交易平台转入 ETH

根据 0xScope 的一份研究报告，自 8 月 3 日以来，五大做市商共售出 130,000 枚 ETH。其中，Wintermute 售出超过 47,000 枚 ETH，其次是 Jump Trading，售出超过 36,000 枚 ETH，Flow Traders 位居第三，售出 3,620 枚 ETH。GSR Markets 也售出 292 枚 ETH，而 Amber Groupd 则售出 65 枚 ETH。尽管 Wintermute 抛售的 ETH 数量最多，但 Jump Trading 上周末就开始售出 ETH，抛售行动领先于其他主流做市商。

上述事件的连锁反应导致 ETH 的 1 小时内清算金额高达 1 亿美元，24 小时清算总额超 4.45 亿美元。根据 Parsec 的数据，8 月 5 日，DeFi 平台上的借贷清算超过 3.2 亿美元，创下今年新高。其中，ETH 抵押品清算额为 2.16 亿美元，wstETH 为 9700 万美元，wBTC 为 3500 万美元。

随着 ETH 最低跌至近 2100 美元，以太坊最高 gas 费达到 710 gwei。值得注意的是，若 ETH 继续跌至 1950 美元，DeFi 协议中价值 9220 万美元的加密资产将被清算；若 ETH 跌至 1790 美元，将会有 2.71 亿美元的 DeFi 资产将被清算。

此次暴跌之后，加密市场的多头杠杆被大规模清理，大量短线现货持有者退出市场，市场基本面有所动摇但并未被摧毁。加密市场恐惧贪婪指数跌至 26（恐惧状态），处于 2023 年以来的较低水平，短期内继续下跌的空间不大。

ETH 现货 ETF 何去何从？

BTC 现货 ETF 净流入数据图表

从 BTC 现货 ETF 的数据来看，尽管中间出现过一段时间的净流出（主要来自灰度 GBTC 的抛售），但整体累计净流入仍有 175 亿美元左右，这也是 BTC 价格相对坚挺的原因。

ETH 现货 ETF 净流入数据图表

反观 ETH 现货 ETF 净流入数据，由于推出的时间点正好遇到宏观经济环境动荡、美股等风险市场大幅回落的不利局面，因此目前累计净流入 -5.11 亿美元，总资产市值规模相比 BTC 也比较小。其中，Grayscale 的 ETHE 占了大部分流出量，价值超过 21 亿美元，而其他 ETF 发行商均处于净流入状态。由于 Grayscales ETHE 仍持有价值超过 59.7 亿美元的 ETH，未来几周有可能会进一步流出。

目前，从传统市场的认可和接受度来看，ETH 和 BTC 仍有较大差距。尽管 ETH 目前仍只是 BTC 现货 ETF 的「配角」，但它标志着加密行业在监管方面的重大进展，长期来看意义重大。随着传统机构对 ETH 基本面的进行进一步了解，未来将会有更多的潜在资金流入 ETH。

在市场暴跌之后，Circle CEO 表示，「面对全球宏观波动时应关注技术、行业和采用而非价格，仍坚持看好加密行业。」从历史数据来看，加密货币行业在 8 月份和 9 月份往往表现不佳，但 10 月份之后的走势较为乐观。

从 8 月 5 日的数据来看，ETH 市值为 2734 亿美元，在全球公司市值榜单中排名 37 位，低于可口可乐、美国银行的市值，甚至也低于巴菲特减仓苹果后伯克希尔的现金储备（2769 亿美元）。

作为加密货币的应用型公链龙头，在技术采用和创新方面的潜力巨大，此次 ETH 市值下降之后也给机构创造了更好的布局机会。此外，市场认为，美联储 9 月份很有可能会启动降息。而美联储降息足以对冲掉短期内日元的影响，届时市场流动性的释放可能会为 ETH 现货 ETF 带来更多的资金注入。

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