24年投资计划简要

0xSorosPublished on 2024-08-02Last updated on 2024-08-02

关于本轮资产配置

单片链：SOL

模块化：TIA（Layer2项目将使用Celestia的DA层以降低交易成本；）

ZK-Rollup：STRK（七大Layer2同等市值下押注STRK。逻辑有待探究)

价值存储：ETH（买入以太坊作为机动操作，不博新项目的时候持有吃Beta，博新项目的时候卖出以太坊）

核心Alpha在于SOL和TIA

博2-3个1-2亿美金市值的项目

24年开始，处于牛市进程中的早期，满仓操作

关于BTC和ETH

下轮熊首选抄底标的BTC（每一轮熊市都是BTC最抗跌，反弹最强）

一类观点：BTC ETF通过后，只有BTC和其他山寨之分；换言之BTC表现将一直优于ETH

对此观点的个人想法：ETH ETF通过也是板上钉钉的事情（两到三年之内）。ETH叙事逐渐趋同于BTC：价值存储/数字黄金。不用纠结于BTC和ETH的表现差异。长期来看BTC和ETH的表现会不相上下。中短期来看，因BTC ETF已通过，圈外大资金会介入BTC。同时炒作资金流向ETH ETF的预期以及坎昆升级。

民道老师观点：ETH ETF通过，市值要逼近BTC ETF通过时的1T，三倍空间。根据之前数轮周期，ETH都在BTC市值的1/2。乐观的猜想ETH目前还有50%补涨，市值到5000亿美金。

未来预测：24年1月11日BTC ETF通过，作为新一代年轻人的数字黄金，BTC和ETH未来十年内追赶黄金市值，十年十倍收益（两到三轮周期）

关于ETH弱势的观点

对圈内玩家来说，此番言论未免过于刻薄。譬如上轮周期，ETH是后于BTC上涨的。ETH有补涨的历史。24年伊始ETH及生态项目的上涨便证明了这一点。本轮周期，BTC ETF通过，区块链行业正式进入传统金融视野。保守的观点是，在长周期中ETH将趋近于BTC的收益（有可能是跟随BTC，小概率收益率超越BTC）。不纠结的做法是BTC和ETH都配置一些。

关于ETH L2的思考

ARB和OP在ETH上涨阶段可以作为ETH的Alpha。从以太坊全局来说，不得不承认的是L2剥离了ETH的价值。如果ARB和OP没有发币，那么这两个项目作为“ETH Alpha”的涨幅明明可以作为ETH的涨幅。L2生态角度，还未出现亮眼项目（缺失土狗项目，反观Solana链上土狗活跃不断。用事实说话）。总体来说，以太坊依然面临群雄割据的困境。EIP4844未必能根本上的困境。

观察板块和项目

按整个周期算，生态项目跑不过本位币。上轮周期，Solana生态项目都没有跑过SOL。在合适的价格抄底（最好是超跌跌价格错配的情况下），获得超额收益后换成本位币。

Solana生态项目（JUP、BONK、PYTH、JTO、MPLX）

DePin赛道: iot.net（属于Solana生态）

模块化赛道：DYM、

并行EVM：Monad、

Layer2赛道：FUEL、

Restaking赛道: Eigenlayer

跨链（LayerZero、AXL、STG、RUNE、FLIP）

AI（TAO、OLAS、WLD）

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