SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-04-15Last updated on 2024-04-15

Abstract

地缘政治带来的冲突同样也影响到了数字货币,比特币在上周五从 6.9 万美元跳水至 5.9 万美元,在 48 小时内造成了超过 10 亿美元的期货多头清算。市场将之后的反弹部分归功于香港证监会(SFC)正式宣布批准比特币和以太坊现货 ETF 对市场信心带来的提振,不仅比美国早一步批准了以太坊现货 ETF,甚至还允许以实物对 ETF 进行申购和赎回。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

近日,随着对美联储降息预期的日渐消退以及中东局势的升级促使投资者转移向避险资产,美国三大股指下跌约 1.5% 左右,美元指数则一度升破 106 ,美债收益率在周末脱离高点以后再度反弹,当前两年期/十年期收益率分别为 4.94% /4.577% 。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

地缘政治带来的冲突同样也影响到了数字货币,比特币在上周五从 6.9 万美元跳水至 5.9 万美元,在 48 小时内造成了超过 10 亿美元的期货多头清算。市场将之后的反弹部分归功于香港证监会(SFC)正式宣布批准比特币和以太坊现货 ETF 对市场信心带来的提振,不仅比美国早一步批准了以太坊现货 ETF,甚至还允许以实物对 ETF 进行申购和赎回。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

Source: SignalPlus & TradingView

在此次价格下跌的过程中,数字货币的“巨鲸”们在 ETH 的低点大量买入建仓,例如一个以“0x E 34 ”开头的地址,选准了时机在最低点加仓了价值 3.15 $M 的 1000 个 ETH,整体仓位达到了 8300 ETH。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

Source: Twitter

期权方面,尽管币价已经收复接近一半失地,隐含波动率依然处在高位,ETH 在前端高出 BTC 10% Vol 左右。期限结构保持倒挂,Vol Skew 处在过去三个月的低位(25% 分位数)。

交易方面,BTC 在 19 APR 和 26 APR 出现数量可观的 Long Put Spread,或是对四月 18-20 号减半事件带来的波动作出进一步保护。另一方面,价格调整也吸引到了交易员进行逢低买入,特别是在五月底,以 Buy BTC 69000-C(850 BTC)和 ETH 3800-C(10542 ETH)为代表的看涨期权建仓成为市场焦点。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

Source: Deribit (截至 12 APR 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

Source: SignalPlus, ATM Vol 持续下滑

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

Data Source: Deribit,BTC 交易分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

Data Source: Deribit,ETH 交易分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ,获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:xdengalin)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。

SignalPlus Official Website:https://www.signalplus.com

欢迎加入 Odaily 官方社群

Telegram 订阅群:https://t.me/Odaily_News

Telegram交流群:https://t.me/Odaily_CryptoPunk

Twitter官方账号:https://twitter.com/OdailyChina

Related Reads

Podcast Notes: Hyperliquid Has Become the Top Interest Point for Traditional Hedge Funds

Empire Podcast hosts Jason Yanowitz and Santiago Santos discuss the surging institutional interest in Hyperliquid, a decentralized perpetual exchange, marking the highest level of engagement from traditional hedge fund managers since Paul Tudor Jones endorsed Bitcoin in 2020. The primary driver is the demand for weekend trading of commodities like oil, especially during geopolitical tensions such as the Iran conflict, as Hyperliquid provides the only active price discovery venue when traditional markets are closed. Trade XYZ, a front-end on Hyperliquid, has seen significant growth, with weekend oil price predictions having a median error of only 50 basis points. Santos predicts commodity trading volume on Hyperliquid will surpass Bitcoin within the year and that its market cap could rise from $25 billion to $100 billion. Other key points include Kraken raising $200 million at a reduced valuation of $13.3 billion, and the SEC clarifying that self-custodied DeFi frontends like MetaMask are not subject to broker-dealer rules, resolving a major regulatory uncertainty. The hosts also note the strong correlation between crypto and macro markets, with the S&P 500 posting one of its best 10-day rallies since 1950. They highlight MicroStrategy's continued Bitcoin acquisitions and the potential of real-world asset (RWA) tokenization as a key trend. The discussion concludes with skepticism towards many L2 projects, predicting a wave of protocols truly going to zero as capital concentrates in proven assets like Bitcoin and Hyperliquid.

marsbit2h ago

Podcast Notes: Hyperliquid Has Become the Top Interest Point for Traditional Hedge Funds

marsbit2h ago

a16z: The Next Frontier of AI, The Triple Flywheel of Robotics, Autonomous Science, and Brain-Computer Interfaces

a16z presents a comprehensive investment thesis for the next frontier of AI: Physical AI, centered on a synergistic flywheel of robotics, autonomous science, and novel human-computer interfaces (HCIs) like brain-computers. While the current AI paradigm scales on language and code, the most disruptive future capabilities will emerge from three adjacent fields leveraging five core technical primitives: 1) learned representations of physical dynamics (via models like VLA, WAM, and native embodied models), 2) embodied action architectures (e.g., dual-system designs, diffusion-based motion generation, and RL fine-tuning like RECAP), 3) simulation and synthetic data as scaling infrastructure, 4) expanded sensory channels (touch, neural signals, silent speech, olfaction), and 5) closed-loop agent systems for long-horizon tasks. These primitives converge to power three key domains: * **Robotics:** The literal embodiment of AI, requiring all primitives for real-world physical interaction and manipulation. * **Autonomous Science:** Self-driving labs that conduct hypothesis-experiment-analysis loops, generating structured, causally-grounded data to improve physical AI models. * **Novel HCIs:** Devices (AR glasses, EMG wearables, BCIs) that expand human-AI bandwidth and act as massive data-collection networks for real-world human experience. These domains form a mutually reinforcing flywheel: Robotics enable autonomous labs, which in turn generate valuable data for robotics and materials science. New interfaces provide rich human-physical interaction data to train better robots and scientists. Together, they represent a new scaling axis for AI, moving beyond the digital realm to interact with and learn from physical reality, promising significant emergent capabilities and value.

marsbit2h ago

a16z: The Next Frontier of AI, The Triple Flywheel of Robotics, Autonomous Science, and Brain-Computer Interfaces

marsbit2h ago

Conversation with Bitwise Advisor: From K-Shaped Economy to AI Taking Jobs, How Can Bitcoin Save the Younger Generation?

Jeff Park, a macro strategist and advisor at Bitwise, argues that the traditional financial system is broken, particularly for young generations. He describes a "K-shaped economy" where asset inflation enriches the wealthy while leaving others behind, with unaffordable housing as a key symptom. Park explains that real estate is often a depreciating asset due to maintenance costs and taxes, yet it remains unattainable for many young people due to distorted demand from global capital flows. He proposes Bitcoin as a superior store of value—scarce, portable, and free from maintenance costs or excessive taxation. By diverting capital away from real estate, Bitcoin could help lower housing prices and increase accessibility. Park also discusses the decline of traditional "smart investing" (e.g., value stocks) and the rise of "ideological investing" in non-correlated assets like crypto, luxury goods, and collectibles. On AI, Park warns it could trigger extreme social inequality by eliminating jobs while boosting corporate profits. He believes this will push younger generations toward Bitcoin, not only as a hedge but also as a symbol of decentralization and data sovereignty—offering an alternative to centralized AI systems that use personal data without fair compensation. He advises a diversified portfolio with Bitcoin as a core holding to hedge against currency devaluation and systemic risk.

marsbit4h ago

Conversation with Bitwise Advisor: From K-Shaped Economy to AI Taking Jobs, How Can Bitcoin Save the Younger Generation?

marsbit4h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片