Original|Odaily Planet Daily(@OdailyChina)
Author|Wenser(@wenser 2010 )
In April this year, Trump initiated the first "tariff trade war," causing a flash crash in the crypto market. In "The Chaotic Era of Crypto Begins: Listen to These 13 Reference Suggestions," I systematically wrote about the subsequent market trends and coping strategies. Most of the content has already come true, including TACO trading, the stablecoin boom, the wealth management boom, timely stop-loss, and the rebound of old AI coins.
In the blink of an eye, we are at the end of 2025, and the crypto market has once again fallen into a stalemate of fluctuation between "$85,000 and $90,000." As I mentioned earlier in "If This Continues, No One Will Trade Crypto Anymore," the number of active investors in the market is visibly decreasing, and "new retail investors" are not flooding in as they did in previous years.
In light of this, as a four-year "veteran retail investor" who has weathered bull and bear markets, I still want to try to answer that eternal question from my perspective—"What should we do now?"(Odaily Note: The following content is for learning and communication purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please DYOR for all trading operations).
On the Protracted War in the Crypto Market: Dual Mastery of Crypto and Stocks Has Become Inevitable
In October last year, before Trump won the U.S. election and DAT became an industry-defining development trend, we detailed the list of the top 25 publicly traded companies by BTC holdings in "A Quick Look at the Top 25 Public Companies by BTC Holdings, Searching for the Secret to Becoming a God through 'Crypto-Stock Dual Mastery'."
One year later, looking back today, some listed companies have experienced significant rises and falls in their stock prices and market capitalizations, such as the leading BTC treasury company Strategy (MicroStrategy) and Japan's "first BTC treasury stock" Metaplanet; some listed crypto mining companies have also transformed vigorously, seeking a second growth curve for their businesses, such as Riot, Hut8, and CleanSpark; while companies like Meitu chose to sell off their holdings in time, locking in the profits from their BTC reserves early.
If in the past, listed companies chose "crypto-stock dual mastery" as a means to diversify risks, resist inflation, and tell new stories to the capital market, then at the end of 2025 and on the eve of 2026, for retail and individual investors, dual mastery has gradually become a "required course in investment."
Delving into the reasons, I believe there are three points:
First, the continued rise of the U.S. stock market and the AI bubble have attracted massive liquidity. For capital, funds, and resources that prioritize efficiency, the U.S. stock market and even global stock markets are the investment stages with the deepest depth, largest capacity, and highest efficiency;
Second, the development of stock tokenization platforms, stablecoins, and the PayFi sector has further bridged the gap between TradFi and DeFi. Crypto-native groups proficient in on-chain investment and trading have more opportunities, channels, and lower thresholds to access high-quality assets and investment targets worldwide than ever before. The entry and exit points for funds have also become more convenient, further compressing the market space for altcoins;
Third, narratives like BTC treasury, ETH treasury, and SOL treasury DAT have failed. Beyond the existing leading companies, whether crypto concept stocks like Circle and Bullish can gain a firm foothold in the capital market depends not only on Wall Street capital institutions but also, most importantly, on whether stock exchanges applying for stock tokenization trading (like Nasdaq), existing individual investors in the stock market, and retail investors entering the stock market from the cryptocurrency market can provide corresponding buying support, pushing the crypto sector to still maintain a certain "dream valuation" expectation after the AI sector. Of course, this does not mean buying crypto concept stocks now; on the contrary, choosing the right time to enter the market and combining it with positive news to take profits on rebounds is a better choice.
Therefore, either enter the stock market through brokerage channels, leveraging the advantages of "News Trading" experience accumulated from past crypto trading and cognitive advantages like the ripple-effect thinking path mentioned in our "4-Tier Ripple Effect Analysis of CZ's Pardon by Trump" to reversely harvest the stock market; or leverage the leverage advantages of stock tokenization platforms, such as MSX.com (invitation code self-service), xStocks, ONDO Global Market, etc., adopting low-leverage long/short strategies for trading attempts, exploring trading routes that suit your risk preference and tolerance, and chasing your own "second spring" in the stock market.
Bear market in crypto? Then make money in stocks. Cold spell in stocks? Then dig for gold in crypto.
For crypto people roaming among various market hotspots, playing whatever is hot, whatever is a trend, whatever has Meme attributes is both a常规操作 (routine operation) and a required course.
Medium-to-Long-Term Macro-Political Tensions: Precious Metals May Continue to Rise
Since Trump took office this year, the political and economic situation in various regions of the world has become increasingly complex, with local hot and cold wars alternating. The global macro environment may remain tense for the next 5-10 years.
Not to mention others, after the Russia-Ukraine war, conflicts like Israel-Hamas, US-Venezuela disputes, and the cooling of relations in East Asia have all had varying degrees, speeds, and depths of impact on the global economic situation. In the past, BTC was often seen as a safe-haven asset, but after BTC spot ETFs entered the U.S. stock system, mainstream coins in the cryptocurrency market have also unfortunately become "assets incorporated into U.S. stocks." Based on this background, we can somewhat boldly judge: Precious metals including gold, silver, palladium, and platinum may continue to rise; non-ferrous metals like copper, lithium, and lead, as important strategic resources, may also see some rise.
Furthermore, considering the upcoming IPOs of giants in commercial aerospace and artificial intelligence like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic next year, and the further rise in chip resource prices for tech giants like NVIDIA, Google, and Amazon, their upstream supply chain-related listed companies and raw material suppliers will all become part of the "rising chain."
The recent rise of semiconductor, satellite, and aerospace sectors in the A-share market has already shown early signs; the development of the robotics industry and the IPOs of related leading companies will also indirectly promote further exploration of mineral resources and the energy industry, as well as more旺盛的需求 (robust demand).
In short, although domestic gold mines are frequently discovered, with news of特大金矿 (super-large gold mines) popping up from time to time, in the medium to long term, precious metals like gold and mineral resources like non-ferrous metals remain the "hard currency" in resource circulation.
For crypto people, like with BTC, either DCA (Dollar-Cost Average) is enough, or you can use tokenized assets for layout, either with low leverage or by directly buying the corresponding token targets.
Neutral Wealth Management Solutions Remain a Market Necessity: Staking Yields, Lending Yields, and DCA Yields Go Hand in Hand
For a crypto market that is fluctuating and trending downward, compared to "offensive strategies" like high-leverage longing or shorting, seeking more neutral wealth management solutions might be a more稳妥的 (steady) "defensive strategy."
In this regard, I believe that for crypto people other than 10 U small散 (retail investors) like me, a defensive strategy of "staking + lending + DCA" can be adopted to get through the current bear market and be prepared to mobilize funds at any time to welcome the next狂暴牛市 (fierce bull market) after institutions and traditional financial market investors enter.
Staking yields: Beyond exchange staking for mainstream coins, staking yields from ETH and SOL ecosystem applications can be chosen opportunistically. Of course, as with the bad debts and chain liquidations caused by a series of DeFi explosions triggered by events like the "10·11 Great Crash," sufficient homework needs to be done when selecting specific projects and platforms to avoid unnecessary principal losses;
Lending yields: As the most stable cornerstone of the DeFi field, although recent price fluctuations in project tokens were caused by利益争端 (interest disputes) between DAO and Labs, Aave remains the largest lending protocol on Ethereum and even in the entire crypto market. It successfully withstood the test of extreme black swan events during the "10·11 Great Crash," operating normally during the liquidation wave and earning substantial revenue. Additionally, Kamino on the Solana ecosystem operates relatively stably and can be considered for reference.
DCA yields: Beyond mainstream coins like BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB, CEXs including Binance, OKX, Bybit, and Bitget periodically open wealth management activities. Previous activities like the 250 million deposit event for Plasma (XPL) and USDC deposit subsidy events have yielded considerable benefits. Recently, the USD1 deposit event opened by Binance even offered an annualized rate of up to about 20%, which is quite astonishing; OKX's recent NIGHT token wealth management event also made many people赚的盆满钵满 (earn a lot). The colder the market, the more exchange activities for user acquisition, activation, and subsidies resemble the "crypto project airdrop interactions" of the past, becoming one of the few must-participate high-yield investment opportunities in the circle. Most importantly, most CEXs have certain fund guarantee capabilities,能够最大程度上保障自身资金不会不翼而飞 (able to maximize the protection of your funds from disappearing) in case of emergencies or unexpected security incidents.
In short, the prerequisite for staying at the table is to ensure you have certain off-field money-making ability while also building more anti-fragile, diversified income pipelines on-field. You cannot place all hopes of returns and收益 (profits) on high-risk assets.
Prediction Markets Are Worth Betting On: Polymarket's Token Launch Will Be the Next Milestone Event
Based on recent messages such as the various functions launched by Kalshi, the formation of a prediction market alliance with platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood, and the plan to hold the first prediction market conference next March, prediction markets are becoming an important force that can sit at the table besides cryptocurrencies, the AI sector, and internet tech giants.
Combined with the perfect timing of next year's World Cup, U.S. midterm elections, and a series of sporting events, the monthly trading volume of prediction markets is expected to increase 10-fold next year (Odaily Planet Daily Note: Latest消息 (news) shows that the transaction volume of prediction markets exceeded $13 billion in November, more than three times the transaction volume during the peak of the 2024 election) to nearly $100 billion.
Similar to how the NFT boom boosted a large number of NFT sniper tools, Mint websites, trading platforms, and how工具网站 (tool websites) like Hyperbot and HyperInsight saw a traffic peak after the rise of on-chain Perp DEXs like Hyperliquid, beyond the "selling shovels"思路 (idea) of creating "prediction market copy-trading tools" or "AI Agent prediction market betting agents," ordinary players should抓住 (grasp) two main ideas:
First, "buying early positions," i.e., betting on the more likely outcome of an event and selling the corresponding chips after the probability rises to lock in profits. Of course, this also requires certain requirements on the investor's personal cognition and grasp of market sentiment, news, etc.;
Second, "following the big players," i.e.,筛选 (screening) high-quality betting investors, conducting cross-verification and AB Test attempts, and building your own copy-trading system and betting decision logic system. Of course, this also carries certain risks, so the allocation of positions and the timing of selling still need to be琢磨和练习 (pondered and practiced) after getting involved.
Compared to the above two ideas, "sweeping the尾盘 (endgame)" seems safer but is ultimately a choice of "picking up coins in front of a steamroller," easily wiped out by dark horse upset events. I do not recommend allocating too much capital to participate, and even more strongly advise against ALL IN gambling like some whales, because if whales lose, they can just delete their accounts and start over, but as ordinary people, we don't have that many ALL IN trial-and-error opportunities.
Conclusion: AI Will Become a Personal Assistant, the x402 Protocol's Future is More Than This
Not long ago, Solana officially launched the @x402 account, openly placing the development of the x402 protocol within its ecosystem at a higher priority. With stablecoin issuance still growing at a monthly rate of billions or even tens of billions, PayFi, stablecoins, and the AI payment concept will still be one of next year's crypto themes.
By then, similar to the recent "AI OS" jointly launched by Douban and ZTE phones, it will penetrate all aspects of life, work, politics, and economy in a deeper form. Its integration with cryptocurrency, with the x402 protocol at the forefront, combined with消息 (news) like Trip.com's overseas version opening stablecoin payment windows in some Southeast Asian regions, the AI payment concept may give birth to another ten-billion-level token.
2026, survive, see you next year.
Recommended Reading:
"2025 Investment Questionnaire: Nearly 60% of People Are Profitable Overall, Over 60% Are Seasoned Veterans Present"
"2025 Meme Coin 'From夯to拉 (From Hot to Trash)' Ranking"
"New Theory of the Four-Year Crypto Cycle: I Asked Seven Senior Practitioners What Stage We Are In Now"
