Trading Strategies

Shares practical strategies, techniques, and risk management methods. By combining market case studies with technical analysis, it helps traders optimize decision-making and enhance profitability.

Is Your Crypto Journey Over?

"The author reflects on the recent crypto crash, drawing from 38 years of market experience, including involvement in crypto since 2013. Despite the current brutal and hopeless sentiment, they emphasize that such crashes are a normal part of long-term bull markets. Recalling personal history, they bought Bitcoin at $200, endured an 87% drop in 2014, sold during a fork conflict, missed further gains, and re-entered during COVID. Key lessons are to hold long-term, avoid timing the market, and aggressively buy dips to lower cost basis. They advise managing position size for personal risk tolerance, doing your own research, and avoiding leverage to prevent permanent loss. The author believes this is a panic within a structural bull market, similar to mid-2021, and is personally buying more crypto and digital art. The core message is that volatility is the price paid for long-term compounding gains in a digitizing world with depreciating fiat currency."

marsbitHace 13 hora(s)

Is Your Crypto Journey Over?

marsbitHace 13 hora(s)

Crypto's Darkest Hour: Real Vision Founder Says Hold Firmly and Buy the Dip Boldly

In the face of a severe crypto market downturn, Real Vision founder Raoul Pal shares his perspective from 38 years of trading experience. He recounts his journey since first buying Bitcoin at $200 in 2013, through multiple crashes—including a 75% drop shortly after his initial purchase and an 87% decline in 2014—as well as missing further gains by selling early. Pal emphasizes two core lessons: first, the power of "HODL" (holding long-term) often outperforms attempts to time the market. Second, buying during sharp declines can significantly lower cost basis and enhance compounded returns over time. He acknowledges the inevitable fear and self-doubt but advises managing positions according to personal risk tolerance and avoiding leverage, which can wipe out capital. He encourages investors to focus on long-term trends: increasing digitization and declining fiat currency value. While timing the market’s recovery is uncertain, Pal is personally buying more digital assets and art (effectively increasing Ethereum exposure), as he did during previous crashes. His strategy remains consistent: accumulate during downturns, embrace volatility, and maintain conviction through independent research. The key is to make market crashes part of the investment narrative, not the whole story.

marsbitHace 14 hora(s)

Crypto's Darkest Hour: Real Vision Founder Says Hold Firmly and Buy the Dip Boldly

marsbitHace 14 hora(s)

Raoul Pal: I've Seen Every Panic, They Are Never the End

Raoul Pal reflects on the brutal emotional toll of market crashes, drawing from his 38 years of experience in trading and investing, including his time in crypto since 2013. He recounts buying Bitcoin at $200, watching it drop 75%, then rise 10x, only to fall 87% in the 2014 bear market. Throughout multiple cycles—including the 2017 bull run with severe drawdowns and the COVID crash—he emphasizes that panic and severe sell-offs, while painful, have consistently been followed by recoveries and new highs. Key lessons include: HODLing often outperforms timing the market; adding during downturns compounds returns; and managing emotional and financial risk is essential. He stresses the importance of personal conviction (DYOR—Do Your Own Research), avoiding leverage, and sizing positions to minimize future regret. Pal sees the current environment as similar to mid-2021—a panic within a bull market—and is buying digital art and increasing crypto exposure accordingly. He concludes that volatility is the price paid for long-term compounding returns.

marsbitHace 14 hora(s)

Raoul Pal: I've Seen Every Panic, They Are Never the End

marsbitHace 14 hora(s)

MYX defies market weakness with a strong rally: But THIS concern remains

MYX Finance (MYX) demonstrated significant strength against the broader crypto market, rallying 10.7% in 24 hours with a 40% surge in trading volume, while Bitcoin and altcoins declined. The token broke above a key supply zone around $3.7-$4.0, confirming a bullish structure shift. Despite low average volume, recent buying interest has been concentrated on weekends. MYX is currently trading within a range of $4.58 to $7.30, with the 50-day moving average providing support at $4.63. While short-term momentum is strong, a retracement to the $4.58-$4.62 liquidity zone is possible. Traders are advised to consider entries near $4.9-$5.1 on any pullback, targeting the range high of $7.3.

ambcrypto02/02 21:01

MYX defies market weakness with a strong rally: But THIS concern remains

ambcrypto02/02 21:01

Retail Investors Are Not the Noise of the Market, But the Main Melody

The article challenges the conventional hierarchy of market difficulty, arguing that retail-driven markets like Crypto and meme stocks, often dismissed as "simple," actually offer higher returns due to their predictable emotional dynamics, not despite them. The author’s key shift was moving from asking "How much expertise does this market require?" to "What determines price in this market?" In retail-dominated markets, price is not set by fundamentals but by collective sentiment. This isn't a flaw but the core mechanism—retailers are not market "noise" but the main driver, creating powerful feedback loops of buying (FOMO) and selling (panic) known as reflexivity. Unlike institutional markets (e.g., U.S. stocks) where valuation models and arbitrage limit moves,散户 markets lack these anchors, allowing emotions to drive massive, predictable cycles: from ignorance and curiosity to FOMO,狂热, panic, and despair. This emotional trajectory is more reliable than forecasting fundamentals. Consequently, these high-volatility markets offer significant opportunities on both the long side (as sentiment turns positive) and the short side (after peak euphoria). The playing field is level; success depends on understanding human psychology, not deep research or insider information. The ultimate insight is to stop seeking "value" and start following the predictable certainty of crowd sentiment.

marsbit02/02 06:38

Retail Investors Are Not the Noise of the Market, But the Main Melody

marsbit02/02 06:38

Pi Network: Why THESE supply zones keep PI bulls in check

Pi Network's price increased by 2.03% with higher trading volume, alongside a technical update enabling mainnet migration for its users. Despite this, the token continues to face significant bearish pressure. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicates sustained selling pressure, and the MACD shows a bearish trend. Although a short-term bounce toward the $0.19–$0.20 resistance zone is possible, the overall market sentiment remains negative. A rejection was already observed near $0.17, and any rally toward $0.20 is likely to be sold off. A move above $0.216 would be needed to shift the bias to bullish. Traders are advised to exercise caution.

ambcrypto02/01 01:05

Pi Network: Why THESE supply zones keep PI bulls in check

ambcrypto02/01 01:05

How to Use Premium Rate to See Through ETF Fund Flows 24 Hours in Advance?

This article explains how to use the ETF premium/discount rate as a leading indicator to predict fund flows into and out of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs up to 24 hours before official data is released. The premium rate reflects the difference between an ETF's market price and the net asset value (NAV) of its underlying assets. A positive premium indicates bullish sentiment and high demand, often leading to net inflows as authorized participants (APs) create new shares to arbitrage the price difference. Conversely, a negative premium (discount) signals bearish sentiment and selling pressure, typically resulting in net outflows as APs redeem shares. Historical data from 2025-2026 shows a strong correlation: a positive premium predicted net inflows with 84% accuracy, while a negative premium predicted net outflows with 81% accuracy. Key practical applications include: - Monitoring the persistence of premiums/discounts over multiple days, not just single readings. - Watching for extreme values beyond ±0.5%, which indicate strong sentiment shifts. - Combining the indicator with price action (e.g., sustained discounts at market tops can signal early distribution). The article cautions that this is not a standalone tool. For higher conviction, it should be combined with other metrics like changes in ETF holdings, futures basis and funding rates, options put/call ratios, and on-chain exchange flows to confirm trends and potential turning points.

比推01/30 13:10

How to Use Premium Rate to See Through ETF Fund Flows 24 Hours in Advance?

比推01/30 13:10

From 100U to the Pinnacle of Glory—A Dialogue with 'Kid', Champion Trader of Huobi HTX's 'New Asset Battle for Glory': A Full Disclosure of the Trinity Trading Strategy of 'Position, Rhythm, and Timing'

In the Huobi HTX "New Asset Trading Championship," the trader known as "Kid" emerged as the champion, starting with just 100 USDT and achieving top returns in the highly volatile new asset sector. His success was attributed not to aggressive speculation but to a disciplined strategy, strict risk management, and a calm mindset. Kid emphasized a tripartite core strategy: position sizing, rhythm control, and timing. He never exceeds 20% allocation per asset, uses small positions to test waters, and reserves cash for volatility. He focuses on catching the "main upward trend" during market consensus phases and avoids emotional trading. Key sectors he favors include RWA (for its strong institutional backing), AI+blockchain (for high valuation elasticity), and cross-border payment projects (for stability). He credits Huobi HTX for its advantages in new asset listings, with over 70% of assets being first launches, robust risk controls, and deep ecosystem integration with networks like TRON. The platform’s liquidity, security mechanisms, and trading tools enabled his strategy execution. Kid views trading as earning within one’s cognitive limits and maintains a long-term, symbiotic relationship with the platform. His approach underscores professionalism, continuous learning, and respect for market risks.

marsbit01/30 07:52

From 100U to the Pinnacle of Glory—A Dialogue with 'Kid', Champion Trader of Huobi HTX's 'New Asset Battle for Glory': A Full Disclosure of the Trinity Trading Strategy of 'Position, Rhythm, and Timing'

marsbit01/30 07:52

Understanding Premium Rate: Stay 24 Hours Ahead of ETF Data

Understanding ETF Premium Rates: A 24-Hour Advantage in Crypto Trading With the approval of BTC and ETH spot ETFs, daily fund flows have become a critical indicator for traders. However, this data is delayed by one day, often causing market prices to reflect the information before it is officially published. A key real-time indicator to anticipate ETF net inflows or outflows is the **ETF premium rate**. The premium rate reflects the difference between an ETF's market price and its net asset value (NAV). A positive premium suggests bullish sentiment and potential inflows, while a negative premium indicates bearish sentiment and likely outflows. Data from January 2026 showed that negative premium rates occurred on 16 out of 18 trading days, with 11 of those days resulting in net outflows. A longer-term analysis (July 2025 to January 2026) revealed an **81% accuracy rate** for negative premiums predicting outflows and **84%** for positive premiums predicting inflows. The mechanism behind this involves Authorized Participants (APs) who perform arbitrage: - A positive premium prompts APs to create ETF shares (buying underlying assets → net inflow). - A negative premium leads to share redemption (selling assets → net outflow). To use premium rates effectively: 1. Focus on **sustained trends** rather than one-day values. 2. Watch for **extreme values** (e.g., beyond ±1%), indicating strong sentiment shifts. 3. Consider **price context**—high prices with negative premiums may signal sell-offs, while low prices with positive premiums may indicate accumulation. However, premium rates should not be used alone. Combine them with: - ETF holdings change - Futures basis and funding rates - Put/Call ratios - On-chain whale movements and exchange inflows/outflows Multi-dimensional analysis improves accuracy. While no indicator is perfect, premium rates offer a timely glimpse into fund flows, giving traders an informational edge.

marsbit01/30 05:05

Understanding Premium Rate: Stay 24 Hours Ahead of ETF Data

marsbit01/30 05:05

Polymarket Arbitrage Panorama: Five Mainstream Strategies and Opportunities for Ordinary Players

Polymarket Arbitrage Overview: Five Main Strategies and Opportunities for Retail Users This article deconstructs the core arbitrage strategies on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, highlighting how professional traders systematically profit from pricing inefficiencies rather than simply betting on outcomes. Five primary arbitrage methods are identified: 1. **In-Platform "Risk-Free" Arbitrage:** Exploiting moments when the sum of YES and NO share prices for a binary event falls below $1, allowing traders to buy both and lock in a guaranteed profit upon settlement. This space is now highly competitive and dominated by bots. 2. **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** Capitalizing on price discrepancies for the same event across different prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket vs. Kalshi). 3. **Information Arbitrage ("Front-Running"):** Using faster data feeds (e.g., live sports streams, news) to place orders before the market updates. 4. **Negative Risk Arbitrage:** Hedging principal risk by strategically taking multiple NO positions in markets with several mutually exclusive outcomes, based on mathematical probability miscalculations. 5. **Market Making (Spread Capture):** Profiting from the bid-ask spread in new or illiquid markets by placing limit orders. The article reviews real-case studies of top traders, including: * A trader who profited using statistical analysis of Elon Musk's historical posting data. * A trader who manipulated the outcome of a low-liquidity, short-term market by moving the underlying asset's spot price. * High-frequency automated trading on microscopic pricing errors. * News-driven subjective trading on political and macro events. * "Reversion" trading, betting against market overconfidence right before event settlement. For retail users, the advice is to: 1. Avoid competing directly with automated bots in simple arbitrage. 2. "Copy trade" by analyzing top traders' on-chain activity and combining it with news research. 3. Take dynamic profits early when an edge is realized, rather than holding until settlement, to improve capital efficiency and avoid final outcome disputes. The conclusion emphasizes that sustained profitability in prediction markets comes from exploiting cognitive and pricing biases through disciplined strategy, not gambling on truth.

比推01/29 06:24

Polymarket Arbitrage Panorama: Five Mainstream Strategies and Opportunities for Ordinary Players

比推01/29 06:24

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