【研报精选】CoinGecko Q1报告:比特币跑赢市场,以太币首次单季通缩

投研第一线Published on 2023-04-21Last updated on 2023-04-25

Abstract

在2023年Q1中,比特币跑赢市场,以太币迎来首次单季通缩。CoinGecKo认为:市场在去年洗礼后好像变得更加乐观。而虽然已度过最糟时期,但监管挑战、宏观经济仍会持续对加密领域施加压力。

CoinGecKo 执行长、营运长Bobby Ong 在Founder's Note 中提到,加密市场在第一季已弥平FTX 崩盘带来的伤害,虽然发生BUSD 等一系列监管事件,但市场在去年洗礼后好像变得更加乐观,似乎没有大型平台、专案破产就已经达成某种成就。而虽然已度过最糟时期,但他们预测监管挑战、宏观经济仍会持续对加密领域施加压力。

2023 Q1 事件时间轴

CoinGecko 统计FTX 破产前后整体市值

加密货币总市值在1 月时达到低点8,290 亿美元,相较于第一季结束前的1.2 兆美元,涨幅接近50%。

其它要点:

下图交易量删除币安的零手续费激励

QNT、 CRO及Ape跌出市值30 大

SOL市值从FTX 崩盘后的第18 重回前十大

加密市场市值变化

CoinGecko:比特币跑赢市值前五大代币

BTC第一季涨幅72%,高于市值前五大代币。

平台币:除OKX 之外涨幅相近,仅LEO 出现跌幅。

HT排名第六,疑似是因为HT在3 月初出现90%跌幅插针所导致。

Q1 代币表现

CoinGecko:比特币vs. 传统资产

比特币在Q1 涨幅远高于传统资产,除比特币外,涨幅最高的是那斯达克综合指数(16%),最低的是原油(-6%)。

比特币(橘线)

CoinGecko:以太币首次单季代币通缩

ETH第一季数据:

销毁量24.2 万ETH

发行量16.7 万

单季流通量-7.5 万ETH

ETH销毁(绿)| ETH发行量(橘)

CoinGecko:以太坊DeFi 主导地位超六成

即便排除二层扩容解决方案,以太坊在DeFi 的市占率仍一路从去年10 月的61% 上升至第一季的66%。

而虽然Solana 经历FTX 打击后,TVL 小幅回升18.4%,包含Vitalik 等多位名人也看好其未来发展,Solana 市占率仍从0.78% 降至0.72%。

DeFi 公链占比

CoinGecko:Uniswap 主导地位超过七成

无论是LP 可以自定义价格区间的Uniswap v3,或是具备ve 代币模型的CURVE,在加密社群中皆各有坚定支持者,但就数据而言,Uniswap 以72% 的交易量几乎主宰了整个DEX 领域。

目前DEX 单月交易量大约只占CEX 的一成:9,000 亿美元vs. 900 亿美元。

第二季数据或许更值得关注,因为Uniswap 牌照已到期,其它开发商已能分岔其代码并作为商业用途,四月初上线的PancakeSwap V3 就是如此。

DEX 市占

CoinGecko:LSD 价值超越借贷市场

流动性质押市场(Liquid Staking Derivatives, LSD) TVL 在第一季上升了210%,锁仓价值以420 亿美元超越借贷市场的33.7 亿美元。

整体仍是以去中心化交易所的117.6 亿美元为大宗,固定利率协议、衍生品市场也分别上涨146%、125%。

DeFi 板块占比

CoinGecko: NFT 市场Blur 三月交易量占比超过七成

Blur 在正式空投前就已经成为NFT 的第二大交易市场,二月空投后直接崛起,超越OpenSea,而三月更囊括了71.8% 的交易量。

NFT 交易所市占

Blur空投的造富效应为自家平台带来巨大交易量,也为NFT 市场带来更深度的流动性,但用户积极刷量获取空投积分的背后同样付出了巨大的交易成本。

可以看出Blur空投后用户更积极地频繁交易而导致交易量暴涨,但此后交易量也逐日走跌。

Blur 交易量变化

CoinGecko:不受监管影响,头部机构市占率平稳

币安在第一季遇上BUSD 、 CFTC提告等两起重大监管事件,但现货市占反而来到64% (2022 Q4 为57%),衍生品市占也有61%。

现货交易所市占

CoinGecko:稳定币市值掉62 亿美元

原因包括SEC 调查BUSD、USDC 脱钩事件等。

重要数据(市值):

USDT 成长20.5%

TUSD 成长169.3%

BUSD 下滑-47.3%

USDC 下滑-26.9%

GUSD 下滑-32%

稳定币市值占比

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