Bitcoin Price At Pivotal Point, Which Comes First: $25,000 Or $30,000?

newsbtcPublished on 2023-04-10Last updated on 2023-04-10

Abstract

For the seventh time in the last three weeks, Bitcoin has been rejected at the resistance area of $28,600. Analysts are therefore divided on whether the Bitcoin price is on...

For the seventh time in the last three weeks, Bitcoin has been rejected at the resistance area of $28,600. Analysts are therefore divided on whether the Bitcoin price is on the verge of another capitulation or whether the bears are running out of steam and the breakout above $30,000 is finally coming.
Bitcoin Price On the Verge Of A Breakout?
In their latest analysis, Jan Happel and Yann Allemann, co-founders of Glassnode, note that Bitcoin remains unwilling to break out to the upside or break down. According to the two experts, the consolidation poses the risk that Bitcoin will dip towards $25,000 in order to collect liquidity:
Despite the short-term shakiness, the price has been pushed to the upside of the range, consolidating between $27.7k (pivot point) and $28.6k. The longer we hover within the range, the more likely that bitcoin drops to $25-$26.5k to catch liquidity, leading to the full-blown alt season.

Bitcoin price and liquidity | Source: Swissblock However, the Bitcoin risk signal remains stable at the lower extreme, suggesting that the risk of a full-blown drop to the $25,000-$26,600 range is relatively low and a max pain scenario. To the upside, the price could rise to $29,200 to $30,000, according to Glassnode founders.
On the other hand, on-chain analyst Ali Martinez is much more bullish. “Another Bitcoin indicator hints at explosive growth!” wrote the analyst yesterday, referring to the aSORP.
Historically, an aSORP (90-day moving average) below 1 has signaled a bear market. When above 1, it has always marked the beginning of a new bull market. Martinez explained:
In 2015, 2019 & 2020, it led to 6,110%, 150%, & 579% gains. aSORP recently moved above 1, suggesting $BTC readies to go parabolic.

Bitcoin aSOPR | Source: Twitter @ali_charts Technical chart analyst and founder of Eight Global, Michaël van de Poppe, agreed with Glassnode founders today that Bitcoin is still stuck in the range of the last three weeks and continues to consolidate. But he is bullish too:
Big event this week with CPI, probably the market mover. If another test of $28,600 takes place, I’m assuming we’ll be breaking out upwards.
While numerous experts expect another dip and want to buy only at $25,000, van der Poppe believes that this will not happen. His reasoning: there are currently no clear bearish divergences on higher time scales.
Jesse Colombo, economic analyst and Forbes contributor is currently observing a pennant pattern that currently appears to be forming below the crucial $30,000 resistance level. Via Twitter, Colombo shared the chart below and elaborated:
If Bitcoin can break out of that pennant pattern & above $30,000 with strong trading volume, it would be a bullish confirmation signal.

Bitcoin pennant pattern | Source: Twitter @TheBubbleBubble Bears Warn Of Another Capitulation
On the other hand, the pseudonymous analyst “@52skew” warns of a time-based capitulation after Bitcoin failed to sustainably break through the $28,600 mark in higher time frames in recent weeks. The analyst speculates that investors are losing faith in Bitcoin’s strength (as evidenced by falling volume).
At press time, the Bitcoin price was at $28,313, consolidating below key resistance.

Bitcoin price, 1-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com

How to Become a Pro Claude User in 30 Days?

"How to Become a Claude Power User in 30 Days" outlines a structured month-long program to transform from a casual user into someone who leverages Claude as a core productivity system. The first week focuses on mastering prompt structure (Role, Context, Task, Format, Constraints), understanding context windows, and setting up foundational Projects and Memory for personalized context. The second week involves building reusable workflows for research, writing (using a two-step outline-first process), and decision-making. The third week shifts to automation: using Claude Cowork for autonomous file tasks, connecting tools like Google Drive and Slack, and setting scheduled automation. The final week is for compounding gains: optimizing all workflows based on feedback, building a personal knowledge repository, teaching the system to a colleague, and designing a complete, ideal "Claude Operating System." By day 31, the user operates with an autonomous assistant that handles routine tasks with deep context, freeing them for high-value creative and strategic work. The core message is that consistent, systematic configuration over 30 days creates a powerful, personalized productivity advantage.

marsbit3m ago

How to Become a Pro Claude User in 30 Days?

marsbit3m ago

Data: 75% of Traders on Hyperliquid Are Losing Money. What Are the Profitable Ones Using?

On Hyperliquid, approximately 75% of addresses are losing money, indicating that manual traders are increasingly competing against automated systems. Profitable traders primarily employ one of three approaches: 1) Running systematic, high-frequency strategies (e.g., one address executed 261k trades with a 64.75% win rate), 2) Placing high-conviction, asymmetric bets with large positions (e.g., 50 trades yielding $4.48M at a 28% win rate), or 3) Using algorithms for execution while making manual macro judgments. The article argues that traditional methods like chart patterns or reacting to social media news are often already priced in by bots, making such traders the "exit liquidity" for systematic players. Success now depends on unique narrative timing, structural insights, or conviction during market capitulation.

marsbit20m ago

Data: 75% of Traders on Hyperliquid Are Losing Money. What Are the Profitable Ones Using?

marsbit20m ago

Five Core Forms of AI Agent in YC's Eyes

The article outlines five core architectural patterns for effective AI Agents, emerging from tools like Codex and Claude, that move beyond simple prompts towards reusable, process-based capabilities. 1. **Skills**: Reusable, parameterized workflows that function like method calls, allowing a single process (e.g., "/investigate") to handle various tasks based on input parameters. 2. **Thin Harness**: A lightweight execution framework (~200 lines) that manages the AI model's "hands and feet"—handling loops, file I/O, and context—without becoming bloated. 3. **Resolvers**: Routing tables that map tasks to specific Skills, preventing "context corruption" when managing dozens of Skills and ensuring outputs go to the correct locations. 4. **Latent vs. Deterministic Layer**: A critical separation where LLMs handle judgment, synthesis, and pattern recognition, while deterministic code handles tasks requiring precision, consistency, and low cost (like calculations). 5. **Memory**: A persistent, accumulating knowledge base (e.g., a markdown folder) with a "current trusted conclusion" section and an append-only timeline, enabling the system to learn and retain context over time. Together, these patterns create a "process power"—a durable competitive advantage. Unlike one-off prompt-based applications whose value quickly commoditizes, a well-designed AI Agent system encodes experience into reusable, parameterized workflows, offloads stable rules to code, and continuously learns through memory. This creates a structured, hard-to-replicate capability that can provide sustained value for individuals or businesses, such as an accountant automating client reviews while preserving privacy and accumulating expertise.

marsbit23m ago

Five Core Forms of AI Agent in YC's Eyes

marsbit23m ago

Tiger Research: On-Chain Risk Operators, The Market Cap Gap Between 147 Trillion and 70 Billion

This report by Tiger Research examines the evolution of risk management in decentralized finance (DeFi) lending. It highlights a power shift from protocol developers to specialized professional risk operators who manage on-chain capital. The era of protocols and community governance solely dictating DeFi lending is ending. A new professional asset management layer has emerged. While the sector is nascent, capital and distribution channels are rapidly consolidating around top risk operator teams, whose past performance is now a key criterion for institutional entry. The industry's development, accelerated by modular infrastructures like Morpho, has led to a clear division of labor mirroring traditional finance: distribution channels (e.g., exchanges), strategy/risk management (the risk operators), and product infrastructure/asset custody (smart contract protocols). This structure lowers the entry barrier for traditional institutions. Currently, the total value managed by risk operators is approximately $70 billion, dominated by a few leading teams like Steakhouse (RWA focus), Sentora (AI models), and Gauntlet (crisis management). Competition now centers on collateral standards, distribution access, and crisis response capabilities. The report outlines three primary entry paths for institutions: 1) **Distribution Model**: Leveraging external risk operators as backend service providers (common for exchanges). 2) **Asset Supply Model**: Onboarding real-world assets to DeFi as collateral. 3) **Independent Operator Model**: Building an in-house team to become a risk operator (e.g., Bitwise). The core opportunity lies in the strategy/risk management layer, where traditional financial institutions can leverage their existing expertise in due diligence and risk assessment without deep technical development. A vast opportunity gap exists: the global traditional asset management industry manages ~$147 trillion, while the entire DeFi sector is only ~$800 billion, with the risk operator niche at ~$70 billion. This disparity signifies immense growth potential. Once robust risk frameworks and clearer regulations are established, even a minor allocation from traditional markets could trigger exponential DeFi growth. Early movers who help build these foundational systems will gain significant rule-setting influence and first-mover advantages.

marsbit30m ago

Tiger Research: On-Chain Risk Operators, The Market Cap Gap Between 147 Trillion and 70 Billion

marsbit30m ago

Interview with Circle's Chief Economist: USDC's Entry into Hyperliquid Benefits Circle and HYPE, Stablecoins Are Becoming Marginal Buyers of U.S. Treasuries

In an interview with Circle's Chief Economist Gordon Liao, the conversation covers the strategic significance of USDC replacing USDH as the reference asset on the decentralized perpetual exchange Hyperliquid. This shift, facilitated by Coinbase as the reserve manager and Circle providing technical infrastructure, aims to capture net interest income for the platform, with 90% of reserve earnings directed back to Hyperliquid for HYPE token buybacks. Liao discusses how stablecoins like USDC, with their substantial on-chain settlement volumes (e.g., $21 trillion in Q1 2026), are emerging as marginal buyers of U.S. Treasuries, concentrating on short-term debt and effectively reducing the weighted duration of the market, which may provide underlying support for long-term rates. The dialogue also explores the evolving nature of stablecoins as both a medium of exchange and a vehicle for capital and collateral liquidity. Additionally, the panel touches on the CLARITY Act's legislative progress, noting compromises around "activity-based rewards" and remaining hurdles like ethics concerns. On AI, there's debate over value capture, with predictions that distribution and application layers, rather than foundational model companies like OpenAI, will accrue most value. Regarding the bond market, Liao attributes the rise in 30-year yields primarily to an increased term premium (around 80 bps) driven by supply-demand dynamics, including fiscal expansion and changing investor demand, rather than expectations of Fed rate hikes.

marsbit35m ago

Interview with Circle's Chief Economist: USDC's Entry into Hyperliquid Benefits Circle and HYPE, Stablecoins Are Becoming Marginal Buyers of U.S. Treasuries

marsbit35m ago

Trading

Spot

Futures