Instagram 有可能超越 OpenSea 成为最大的 NFT 市场？

深链财经Published on 2022-03-31Last updated on 2022-03-31

Abstract

别以为只要有想法就可以轻松超越 OpenSea 并成为世界上最大的 NFT 市场，毕竟不是谁都可以像 Instagram 那样拥有庞大的用户基础。

不是危言耸听，Instagram 将轻松超越 OpenSea，成为全球最大的 NFT 市场。
作为马克·扎克伯格旗下的照片共享应用，Instagram 已确认计划在未来几个月内添加加密数字藏品服务。分析人士认为，此举可能会吸引数百万新晋消费者进入 NFT 领域，并为 Instagram 带来数十亿美元的收入。
下面，让我们用数据来看看为什么说 Instagram 能“秒杀” OpenSea——根据德意志银行最新发布的分析报告显示，Instagram到 2023 年将拥有 22 亿月活跃用户量，其中 2% 将会拥有自己的数字资产，而这些人将在 Instagram上形成一个 4400 万的 NFT 用户群。相比之下，OpenSea 上大约“只有” 140 万用户，也就是说，Instagram 的 NFT 用户规模保守估计会是 OpenSea 的 30 倍以上，因此对于OpenSea平台即将失去大部分市场份额的担忧也就不足为奇了。
然后，让我们再来做个“合理假设”——如果每个 Instagram 用户每年只进行三笔 NFT 交易，每笔平均售价暂且保守估计为 250 美元，那么结果会是什么呢？答案就是——Instagram 上的 NFT交易量将会达到 330 亿美元！远超过了 OpenSea 的 230 亿美元。再假设 Instagram 的交易费用为 2.5%，那么这将给平台带来 17 亿美元的年收入，乐观点的话，甚至可能会增至 80 亿美元。
当然，拥有 Facebook 和 Instagram 两个子品牌的 Meta 公司推出新产品的成绩并不总是那么好，但通常而言，他们在推出软件产品时的表现总好于硬件产品。比如在过往的案例中，Marketplace 和 Facebook Groups很明显取得了较大成功，而用户对于 Facebook 约会产品以及智能手表 Meta Watch 的接受度则没有那么高。从这个角度来看，Instagram 整合 NFT 服务“获胜”的可能性并不低。
NFT 市场处于“高速增长模式”
除了自身优势之外，NFT 市场的发展现状同样会给 Instagram 注入“强心剂”。实际上，目前 NFT 市场正处于高速增长模式，数据不会说谎，2021 年全球 NFT 交易量是 2020 年的 250 倍，而且新加入者将会拥有“非常大:的市场机会。
德意志银行分析称：“将 NFT 引入给 Instagram 的广大用户将会推动整个平台走向主流化。我们认为 Instagram 将会简化NFT 交易的过程，并且降低准入门槛。此外，我们认为 Instagram 强大的全球品牌认知度将有助于 NFT 的合法化，而这将会打消广大用户在交易NFT时的顾虑。”
随着Instagram 推出NFT服务，未来很可能会吸引越来越多的新兴艺术家加入到创建 NFT 的行列——在增加可用数字资产供应的同时，还会随着市场发展变得更加健康并产生“飞轮效应”。
如果把眼光放长远一些，未来 NFT 很可能会成为虚拟世界的基础。换而言之，马克·扎克伯格推出的这个新市场将会填补他在NFT领域的空白并以此满足他的雄心壮志，即：推动 Meta公司成为虚拟世界的市场领导者。
值得一提的是，Twitter 也通过订阅服务推出了 NFT，用户可以通过该服务将自己的头像NFT添加为他们的个人资料图片。与此同时，预计 Snap 将很快跟随 Twitter 的脚步，以另一种形式在在自己的平台上推出 NFT。
尽管到目前为止，人们对于 Instagram 进军 NFT 市场的具体计划知之甚少，但不可否认的是，如今 NFT已经引发了全世界的疯狂，各大公司仿佛都在跃跃欲试。据悉，一些主流平台如eBay等也正在计划推出 NFT 功能，此外一些体育品牌和好莱坞顶级制片厂也不甘落后，争相推出自己的NFT市场，希望能在这个新兴市场分得一杯羹。
但需要注意的是，别以为只要有想法就可以轻松超越 OpenSea 并成为世界上最大的 NFT 市场，毕竟——不是谁都可以像 Instagram 那样拥有庞大的用户基础。

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