Key Takeaways
- XRP’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has dropped below 1, signaling widespread realized losses and panic selling reminiscent of 2022.
- The token recently traded near $1.44, down more than 10% amid heavy liquidations.
- Analysts remain divided: some forecast $5–$15 by year-end, while Ripple’s CTO, David Schwartz, doubts XRP will reach $50–$100 anytime soon.
XRP has been trading in a range for months, now down more than 60% from its all-time high.
Several on-chain indicators suggest heightened panic among holders, mirroring the bearish conditions of 2022.
One notable signal is the surge in exchange inflows, where large amounts of XRP are moved to trading platforms, often preceding selling pressure.
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XRP’s SOPR Falls Below Key Level
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is a key on-chain metric used to gauge the profitability of cryptocurrency transactions, particularly for assets like XRP.
It calculates the ratio of the realized value, the price at which coins are sold or transferred, to the cost basis, the price at which those coins were originally acquired.
In essence, SOPR measures whether holders, on average, realize profits or losses when moving their tokens on the blockchain.
When the SOPR value exceeds 1, holders transact spent outputs at a profit, signaling bullish sentiment and strong confidence.
Conversely, a value below 1 indicates transactions are occurring at a loss, often signaling capitulation, panic selling, or bearish market conditions.
On the XRP Ledger, which processes transactions quickly and at low cost, SOPR provides a real-time view of holder behavior.
According to Glassnode , XRP’s SOPR fell from 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96 in early February 2026.
This shift indicates that aggregate holder profitability has turned negative, with significant realized losses documented on-chain.
Glassnode highlights “triggered panic selling,” as investors offload XRP in response to broader market pressures.
The realized price—the average cost basis of all XRP holdings—currently stands at $1.48, a level similar to April 2022, when XRP also faced bearish headwinds.
This suggests the market may enter a period of extended consolidation before stronger hands resume accumulation.
XRP Price Performance
XRP’s price has extended its downward trajectory from late 2025.
As of February 10, 2026, it trades around $1.44, reflecting a small daily gain of 0.16% but masking larger losses over recent weeks.
Historical data shows the token fell from $1.65 on Jan. 31 to lows of $1.29 by Feb. 5—a 16% drop in a single day—amid a 7% decline in Bitcoin.
This decline aligns with broader market weakness, including slumps in Ethereum and Solana, exacerbated by over $46 million in XRP derivatives liquidations.
Over the past week, XRP has fallen about 3.1%, with 30-day losses nearing 10.6% from January highs above $2.40.
February has historically been unkind to XRP, with median returns of -8.12% and average declines of -5%, a pattern that has repeated this year as the token shed over 6% in the first two days alone.
Key factors driving this underperformance include Ripple’s monthly release of 1 billion XRP from escrow, which, despite being routine, adds perceived selling pressure in a risk-off environment.
Exchange balances have risen, signaling potential for further dumps, while ETF inflows exceeding $1.3 billion year-to-date have failed to stem the tide amid macro uncertainty.
Analysts Remain Divided
Analyst opinions on XRP remain divided
Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick projects a potential $8 by year-end, citing regulatory clarity and institutional adoption.
CryptoNinjas suggests a more conservative $5–$15 range, influenced by bank partnerships and Bitcoin halving cycles, while noting $100 remains highly speculative.
Changelly projects a minimum of $3.18, an average of $3.26, and a maximum of $3.49, reflecting steady growth from DeFi integration.
AI models like ChatGPT and Claude forecast February consolidation between $1.40 and $1.90, with potential year-end upside to $6–$8 under favorable conditions, but caution against seasonal weakness.
Ripple CTO David Schwartz, on the other hand, has expressed skepticism about those targets.
He does not expect XRP to reach $50–$100 in the near term, emphasizing that such valuations require extreme adoption and liquidity shifts.
Schwartz notes that XRP’s price is secondary to its utility for payments, and that broader crypto market trends, rather than Ripple’s holdings or sales, largely drive pricing.
