Winklevoss-led Gemini rolls out prediction markets in 50 US states

cointelegraphPubblicato 2025-12-16Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-12-16

Introduzione

Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins, has launched its prediction market platform, Gemini Predictions, across all 50 US states. This follows its affiliate, Gemini Titan, receiving a designated contract market license from the CFTC. The platform allows users to trade on real-world events with yes/no questions, featuring instant execution and transparency. This move is part of Gemini's strategy to build a comprehensive "super app" for crypto trading, staking, and other services, aligning with a broader industry trend. The launch occurs amid a warming US regulatory environment for prediction markets, with other major providers like Polymarket also resuming operations after past restrictions.

Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange founded by billionaire twins Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, has rolled out prediction markets in the United States after securing key regulatory approval.

Gemini has launched its in-house prediction market, Gemini Predictions, rolling out the offering across all 50 US states, the exchange announced in an X post on Monday.

Provided via affiliate Gemini Titan, Gemini Predictions enables users to trade real-world events with yes or no questions with “near instant execution” and full transparency.

The launch came shortly after Gemini Titan obtained a designated contract market license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last Wednesday, authorizing the company to offer prediction markets in the US.

Rising trend for building “everything apps”

The arrival of Gemini Predictions marks the company’s latest step in building a “one-stop super app,” allowing users to not only trade crypto, but also stake assets, earn rewards, buy tokenized stocks and participate in prediction markets.

The move aligns with a broader industry trend toward all-in-one platforms in crypto, with rival exchanges like Coinbase rushing to introduce a wide range of services, including trending prediction markets and tokenized stocks.

Gemini Prediction’s market on the price of Bitcoin on Dec. 31. Source: Gemini

The trend has also been picked up by self-custodial wallets like MetaMask and Trust Wallet, as well as major decentralized exchanges (DEX) like PancakeSwap, which released a new BNB Chain-based prediction platform Probable on Tuesday.

Related: Phantom taps Kalshi to offer regulated prediction markets in wallet

The project adds to a growing portfolio of prediction markets backed by YZi Labs, the venture capital firm founded by Binance co-founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, including Opinion, which has topped volume rankings in November.

Major providers had faced issues in the US

The industry’s push to launch prediction markets follows years of regulatory uncertainty in the United States, with major providers such as Polymarket resuming local operations after previously facing a ban in 2022.

The platform started rolling out its relaunch in the US in early December, announcing that waitlisted users will be the first to access its US app.

Source: Polymarket

In another sign of a warming US stance toward prediction markets, a group of providers including Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto.com have recently received a temporary reprieve from enforcement after a judge intervened following cease and desist orders issued by the state of Connecticut in early December.



Letture associate

Dialogue with a Macro Analyst: AI Drains All Liquidity from U.S. Stocks, $40K Bitcoin is the True Bottom

In a recent discussion, macro strategist Luke Groman, founder of FFT LC, presented a sobering analysis of current markets. He argues that while the S&P 500 hits new highs, this is largely driven by just seven AI stocks, which are "sucking all the oxygen and liquidity out of the room." Bitcoin, which he calls the "last working smoke alarm for liquidity," is signaling trouble, having entered a difficult period. Groman explains that the AI boom is fueled by accounting practices that front-load revenue, creating an illusion of high profits while cash is being depleted. He warns this cycle could reverse sharply when construction slows. His base case is that stocks will rise in dollar terms but fall significantly when measured in gold or Bitcoin, highlighting that long-term US Treasury futures have already lost 90% of their value against gold over the past decade. He points to major structural risks, including China's dominance in rare earths—a small commodity market underpinning trillions in tech stock value—and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which he calls a "Suez Moment" for the US. This, combined with a shift towards a "no ticky, no washy" proof-of-work system for settling trade (using gold, not trust), signals deeper systemic distrust. Regarding US debt, Groman notes that historically, all 58 countries that reached a 130% debt-to-GDP ratio defaulted, primarily through inflation. The US crossed this threshold in 2020. He also highlights a contradiction in the AI narrative: if it's as transformative as claimed, it must destroy white-collar jobs, threatening half of US tax revenue—a reality at odds with the "no job loss" messaging from tech leaders. On Bitcoin, Groman sold most of his position near the top and hasn't fully re-entered. Citing technical analysis from Northstar Bad Charts, he suggests a potential bottom around $40,000 could materialize in Q3 or Q4. He concludes that while he may be labeled a doomsayer, his view is simply realistic, grounded in historical precedents and current macro pressures.

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Dialogue with a Macro Analyst: AI Drains All Liquidity from U.S. Stocks, $40K Bitcoin is the True Bottom

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